Chapter 13
1. Understand the nature of the control cycle and
four key steps in a general project control
model.
2. Recognize the strengths and weaknesses of
common project evaluation and control
methods.
3. Understand how Earned Value Management can
assist project tracking and evaluation.
4. Use Earned Value Management for project
portfolio analysis.
5. Understand behavioral concepts and other
human issues in evaluation and control.
2


Projects are often defined by their constraints
It is vital to make sure projects are controlled
as carefully as possible. Are we:
◦
◦
◦
◦

on time?
on budget?
getting results?
satisfied?
What clues will tell us when we are not
meeting our goals?
◦ These clues need to be timely and accurate
3
1. Setting a Goal
4. Corrective
Action and
Recycling the
Process
2. Measuring
Progress
3. Gap Analysis of Actual vs.
Planned Performance
4
Duration (in weeks)
Work Package
Design
Engineer
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Total
6
2
4
Install
8
8
8
28
4 20 6
30
8
Test
Total $
6
6
2
6
4
2
8 12 28 8
6
4
2
Cumulative $ 6 12 20 32 60 68 74 78 80
14
80
$ in thousands
5
Cumulative Cost ($ in thousands)
Week 23
Is this variance a
good or bad factor?
60
40
Actual spend $40k
$10,000 Negative Variance
Cumulative
Budgeted Cost
20
Cumulative
Actual Cost
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Elapsed Time (in weeks)
45
50
6
Milestones are events or stages of the project
that represent a significant accomplishment.

Significant events or deliverables
◦ Major project happenings
◦ Funding points (30% of budget expended)
◦ Key dates (April 15)

Activities of “zero duration”
◦ Take no time; consume no resources

Serve as reminders to check on overall project
status at key points
7
Milestones are control devices that
…signal the completion of important steps
…can motivate the team
…offer reevaluation points
…help coordinate schedules
…identify key review gates
…signal when the next steps should begin
…delineate various deliverables
8
9
10
Project status is updated by
linking task completion to the
schedule baseline
11
12

Earned Value Management (EVM) is a project
management system that combines schedule
performance and cost performance to
answer the question, “What did we get for the
money we spent?”

Recognizes that it is necessary to jointly
consider the impact of
◦ Time (schedule)
◦ Cost
◦ Project performance
on current project status.
Cost
Earned
Value
Performance
Schedule
13




All project steps “earn” value as work is
completed.
The Earned Value (EV) can then be compared to
actual costs and planned costs to determine
project performance and predict future
performance trends.
Physical progress is measured in dollars, so
schedule performance and cost performance can
be analyzed in the same terms.
Based on a list of 32 criteria (revised 1996)
◦ http://www.acq.osd.mil/evm/
◦ a.k.a ANSI/EIA -748 EVMS 32 Guidelines
Info from http://www.earnedvaluemanagement.com/benefits.html
14
Basis for Earned Value Analysis:

Budgeted cost at completion (BAC)
◦ Overall approved budget for a task.

Actual cost of work performed (AC)
◦ Total amount spent on a task up to the current
date.

Percent Complete
◦ = Earned Value / BAC = EV / BAC
◦ Task progress, simply the physical progress shown
by the fill of the task bar.
15
Once basis have been established, the
following calculations can be performed:

Planned value (PV)
◦ The point along the time-phased budget that
crosses the current date.
◦ Shows the budgeted cost of scheduled work as of
the current date.

Earned value (EV) =BAC x Percent Complete.
◦ The budgeted cost of completed work as of the
current date.
16
Variance Calculations:
 Schedule Variance (SV)
◦ = Earned Value – Planned Value = EV – PV
◦ The difference between what was planned to be
completed and what has actually been completed as
of the current date.

Cost (Budget) Variance (CV)
◦ = Earned Value – Actual Costs = EV - AC
◦ The difference between the work that has been
accomplished (in dollars) and how much was spent
to accomplish it.
17
AC
Actual
Overspend
CV
Cost
PV
EV
Budget
Slip
SV
Scheduled
Performed
Schedule
18
The Schedule Performance and Cost Performance Indices
(CPI) not only monitor current project performance, they
can be used to predict future performance trends.

To-Complete Performance Index (TCPI)

Estimate at Completion (EAC)

Variance at Completion (VAC)
◦ = (BAC-EV) / (BAC-AC).
◦ Indicates the CPI required throughout the remainder of the project
to stay within the stated budget.
◦ = AC + ((BAC-EV)/CPI).
◦ A forecast of total costs that will be accrued by project completion
based on past cost performance trends.
◦ = EAC – BAC.
◦ The difference between the new Estimate at Completion and the
original Budget at Completion.
19


In a typical spend plan analysis, physical
progress is not taken into account when
analyzing cost performance.
Instead, a project’s actual costs to date are
simply compared to planned costs, often with
misleading results.
20


A task has a planned
value (PV) of $1000,
and actual costs (AC)
of $1000.
It appears this task
has perfect cost
performance, and is
in good shape to
finish on-budget.
21



If physical progress is
taken into account, the
results may differ.
The project has spent
$1000 in actual costs,
but is behind schedule
and has only achieved
$750 of Earned Value.
This is called a cost
overrun, and this
project would have a
Cost Variance (CV) of
-$250.
The team spent $1000 but are only 75% complete.
22

Let’s relook at our project and see how
we are doing in Week 30
Duration (weeks)
Work
Package
5
10
Design
6
2
Engineer
4
8
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
% Comp.
100
8
Install
8
4
100
20
Test
6
50
2
6
4
2
Total
10
10
8
12
20
8
6
4
2
Cumul.
10
20
28
40
60
68
74
78
80
0
$ in thousands
23
Planned @
%
Week 30 Comp.
Design
Earned
Value
8
100
8
Engineer
28
100
28
Install
30
50
15
2
0
0
Test
Cumul.
Earned Value

What is the earned
value of the project
work done to date?
51
$ in thousands
24

As of Week
30, what is
the status of
this project
in terms of
◦ Budget?
◦ Schedule?
◦ Performance?

Cumulative Budgeted Cost
Cumulative Actual Cost
(PV)
$17k
Shortfall
in Value Earned
(EV)
How does
this compare
to slide 6
S-Curve?
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1. Clearly define each activity including its
resource needs and budget
2. Create usage schedules for activities and
resources
3. Develop a time-phased budget that shows
expenditures across the project’s life (PV)
4. Total the actual costs of doing each task (AC)
5. Calculate both the budget variance (CV) and
schedule variance (SV)
26

Schedule performance index (SPI)
◦ =Earned Value / Planned Value = EV / PV
◦ Schedule variance related as a ratio instead of a dollar
amount.
◦ A ratio less than 1.0 indicates that work is being
completed slower than planned.

Cost performance index (CPI)
◦ =Earned Value / Actual Costs = EV / AC
◦ Cost variance related as a ratio instead of a dollar
amount.
◦ A ratio less than 1.0 indicates the value of the work that
has been accomplished is less than the amount of
money spent.
27
Activity
Jan
Feb
Staffing
8
7
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Plan
%C
Earned
Value
15
100
15
Blueprinting
4
6
10
80
8
Prototype Development
2
8
10
60
6
Full Design
3
Construction
8
10
21
33
7
2
30
32
25
8
10
10
0
0
5
20
0
0
Transfer
Punch List
15
Σ=
118
Monthly Plan
8
7
6
17
10
55
15
Cumulative Plan
8
15
21
38
48
103
118
Monthly Actual
8
11
8
11
10
30
Cumulative Actual
8
19
27
38
48
78
44
$ in thousands
28
Schedule Variances for June

Planned Value (PV)
103

Earned Value (EV)
44

Schedule Performance Index (SPI)
= EV/PV = 44/103 = .43

Estimated Time to Completion
= SPI ˉ ¹ X Original Time Frame =
(1/.43 x 7) = 16.3 months
29
Cost Variances for June

Actual Cost of Work (AC)
78

Earned Value (EV)
44

Cost Performance Index (CPI)
= EV/AC = 44/78 = .56

Estimated Cost to Completion
= CPI ˉ ¹ X Original Budget =
(1/.56 x $118,000) = $210,714
30
Accurate and up-to-date information is
critical in the use of EVM

0/100 Rule

50/50 Rule

0/25/50/75/100 Rule

Percentage Complete Rule
See Table 13.8, page 429 for an example
31




Optimistic progress reports
Level of detail
Process evaluation
Non-technical performance measurement
32
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
◦
◦
◦
◦
◦
Project mission
The purpose of the project is clear and understood by all
Top management support
Project plans & schedules
A detailed plan of the required stages on the implementation
process
Client consultation
A key stakeholder and defines value and satisfaction
Client acceptance
Personnel
Right team members with the right skill sets
Technical tasks
Team with right skill sets
8. Monitoring & feedback of progress vs. initial projections
9. Communication channels
10. Troubleshooting and corrective action
33
1. Why is the generic four-stage control cycle useful for
understanding how to monitor and control projects?
2. Why was one of the earliest project tracking devices referred to as
an “S-curve?” Do you see value in the desire to link budget and
schedule to view project performance?
3. What are some of the key drawbacks with S-curve analysis?
4. What are the benefits and drawbacks with the use of milestone
analysis as a monitoring device?
5. It has been said that Earned Value Management (EVM) came about
because the Federal Government often used “Cost plus”
contractors with project organizations. Cost plus contracting
allows the contractor to recover full project development costs
plus accumulate profit from these contracts. Why would requiring
contractor firms to employ earned value management help the
government hold the line against project cost overruns?
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6.
What are the major advantages of using EVM as a project
control mechanism? What do you perceive are its
disadvantages?
7. Consider the major findings of the research on human factors
in project implementation. What common themes seem to
emerge from the research of Baker, Morris, and Pinto?
8. The ten critical success factors have been applied in a variety
of settings and project types. Consider a project with which
you were involved. Did any sub-set of these factors emerge as
clearly the most important for project success? Why?
9. Identify the following terms: PV, EV, and AC. Why are these
terms important? How do they relate to each other?
10. What do the schedule performance index and budget
performance index demonstrate? How can a project manager
use this information to estimate future project performance?
11. Suppose the SPI is calculated as less than 1.0. Is this good
news for the project or bad news? Why?
35

You have evaluated your project and have developed
the following earned value table from your analysis:
EV-AC EV/AC EV-PV
Tasks
CV
CPI
SV
EV/PV
EV
PV
AC
SPI
Task A
10,000
10,000
11,000
-1000
.91
0
1.00
Task B
12,000
11,000
13,000
-1000
.92
1000
1.09
Task C
9,000
8,000
8,500
500
1.06
1000
1.13
Overall
31,000
29,000
32,500
-1500
.95
2000
1.07
1. Determine the project status by calculating CV, CPI,
SV, and SPI for each task and for the project overall.
2. What is the analysis of how the project is doing
from these indicators?
36