Economic Recovery Plan
Mogadishu, 13th June 2013
Overview
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Outline
Key linkages
Organizing the process
Key development partners
Possible WB support
I-PRSP?
Key questions
Timelines
ERP Outline
Stage 1: Socio-Economic Recovery Strategy (ready for Brussels conference)
• Short vision statement on Economic and Social Recovery (agreed at top level)
• Guiding principles and policy framework (including overview of economy)
• Outline macroeconomic and fiscal framework
• Priorities for quick socio-economic recovery with provisional flagship intervention
areas
Products:
• Socio-Economic Recovery Strategy report (20 pages), in English & Somali
• Broad Outline of the ERP and Roadmap for completion of the Plan (key steps with
dates and deliverables)
• Roadmap to I-PRSP, based on he one-plan principle
ERP Outline contd
Stage 2: Full Economic Recovery Plan (ready by the end of the year)
• Stage 1 Strategy report (some Sections expanded/updated)
• Expanded macroeconomic and fiscal framework
• Revenue mobilization strategy
• Priority sectors for quick economic recovery, including some flagship projects,
agreed through regional consultations and line ministries and within well-defined
financial resource scenarios (i.e. not an un-prioritized and un-costed wish list)
• Intergovernmental implementation: framework for implementing the ERP countrywide
• 2014 Budget documents reflect the report (Macro-fiscal framework etc.)
Products:
• Full Economic Recovery Plan (40 pages plus annexes), in English & Somali
• More detailed reports/annexes on: revenue strategy and regional linkages
• Annual planning and budget guidelines for 2015 and beyond
• (If necessary) Supplementary Budget to accommodate funded priority projects
ERP Main Objectives
• Develop common vision among leadership for FGS pathway
to economic recovery
– Possibly including Economic committee in parliament?
• Set out principles to guide this transition
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Role of FGS in promoting economic recovery?
Role of FGS in service delivery?
Role of FGS with respect to regions/districts? Functions ass.
Role of development partners?
• Roadmap for implementation through annual planning and
budgeting – guidelines as an Annex
• Identify priority sectors for a quick economic recovery
• Lay foundations for simple macroeconomic framework
(including database)
• Identify options for improved revenue mobilization
ERP Objectives contd
• Some ideas to bear in mind:
–Keep it simple
–One plan/process: avoid multiple
planning exercises
–Manage expectations
–Be inclusive (sectors, regions,
parliament, civil society, donors etc)
–Remain focused on objectives
Key Linkages
• New Deal
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Involve New Deal Desk team, key development partners (UN)
One vision, one plan
Economic Foundations
Revenue and Services
Compact
Annual budget – involve DG Budget and team
PFM Reform Strategy & Action Plan
Aid strategy development process
Aid financing principles & architecture
Brussels conference (September)
Key Linkages contd
one possible approach to consider…
Organizing the process
• Ministerial Task Force (can we use existing body such as New Deal
high-level taskforce?)
– Members: Minister of Finance and Economic Planning (chair TBD?),
other key ministries, OoP, OPM
– Role: Strategic direction for the process, keep Cabinet informed,
approve key decisions
• Technical working group
– Members: MoFEP, other key ministries relevant NGO’s and the private
sector, OoP, OPM, CBS, development partners
– Role: Draft the plan
• New Deal/Compact groups (especially Economic Foundations and
Revenue and Services), leading to…
• …Sector working groups
– Members: sector line ministries, development partners
– Role: Draft sector inputs to the plan
Organizing the process contd
Ministerial
taskforce
(New Deal?)
New Deal HighLevel Taskforce
Technical working
group
New Deal Groups [To start before Brussels]
Economic
Foundations
Revenue &
Services
Key development partners
• Based on PFM donor coordination matrix, the
following development partners could be
involved in direct support to MoFEP:
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AfDB
EU
IMF
Sweden
UNDP
World Bank
• Other development partners supporting relevant
sector ministries may also contribute support
WB Support to MoFEP
• PREM team (overall support): Geoff Handley,
Ian Mills, Alireza Zadeh
• Specific additional consultancy inputs support:
– Revenue mobilization
– Macro-fiscal framework
– Planning & budgeting guidelines
– Macroeconomic database & statistical capacity
– Inter-governmental linkages
Interim-PRSP?
• This is required to qualify for debt relief
• Usually comprises:
– Simple macro-fiscal framework
– Summary of available evidence on poverty
– Roadmap towards a more comprehensive &
participatory plan
Key questions
• Should the plan cover all sector ministries or
primary economic ones?
• How can MoFEP build a consensus with OoP
and OPM?
• Proliferation of plans – what are we adding?
Mapping?
Tentative Timeline
Activity
Agree ERP Concept Note and Guidelines within MoFEP and
compose Secretariat
Convene Secretariat and approve Concept Note and Guidelines
Date
Convene Economic Foundations and Revenue and Services
working groups (MoFEP facilitated workshop)
Participate in regional consultations under New Deal
Jul 5
Review meeting: Secretariat to examine working group
prioritization proposals
Draft Vision and Principles report ready
Aug 9
Cabinet approval of draft Vision and Principles report
Aug 23
Jun 30
Jul 5
TBC
Aug 16