FACOLTÀ SCIENZE AGRARIE, ALIMENTARI E AMBIENTALI
ISTITUTO DI ZOOTECNICA
An introduction to
Bayesian analysis
Contacts
and MCMC
Administration
Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore
Formazione Permanente
Via Emilia Parmense, 84 – 29122 Piacenza
Tel. +39 0523 599 194 – Fax +39 0523 599 195
e-mail ser.formpermanente-pc@unicatt.it
Logistic and scientific secretariat
Info and enquiries about procedure and booking
Manuela Rancati
e-mail manuela.rancati@unicatt.it
Stefano Capomaccio
e-mail stefano.capomaccio@unicatt.it
Winter School 2015
www.unicatt.it
www.gen2phen.it
Piacenza
4-6 February 2015
Residenza Gasparini
Via dell’Anselma 9
The GEN2PHEN project
Schedule
06/02/15 Friday
04/02/15 Wednesday
THE “FIXED” EFFECTS MODEL
THE “MIXED” MODEL
THE MULTIVARIATE MODEL
THE BAYESIAN ALPHABET
GEN2PHEN is investigating the genetic basis and the
biology of i) feed efficiency; ii) stress tolerance; iii) methane
emission and iv) milk fat composition in dairy cattle.
To accomplish these tasks it considers a set of biomarkers
known from the literature to be associated to the target
traits
and
dissects
them
to
assess
the
genomic,
metagenomic, transcriptomic and epigenomic components.
The final aims of the project are on the one side a better
understanding of the biology of the traits investigated, on
the other side to test and optimise biomarkers and
genomic tools potentially useful in selection programs and
herd management..
More information on http://www.gen2phen.it
.
Do we understand classical statistics?
HISTORICAL INTRODUCTION
TEST OF HYPOTHESIS
STANDARD ERRORS AND CONFIDENCE INTERVALS
BIAS AND RISK OF AN ESTIMATOR
FIXED AND RANDOM EFFECTS:
A PERMANENT SOURCE OF CONFUSION
LIKELIHOOD
The Bayesian choice
The linear model
Prior information
EXACT PRIOR INFORMATION
VAGUE PRIOR INFORMATION
NO PRIOR INFORMATION
THE ACHILLES HEEL OF BAYESIAN INFERENCE
LAB: BAYESIAN GENOMIC ANALYSIS USING PUBLIC
SOFTWARE.
BAYESIAN INFERENCE
FEATURES OF BAYESIAN INFERENCE
TEST OF HYPOTHESES
COMMON MISINTERPRETATIONS
BAYESIAN INFERENCE IN PRACTICE
LAB: MAKING BAYESIAN INFERENCE IN SIMPLE
PROBLEMS WITH THE “RABBIT” PROGRAM
The Teacher
Agustín Blasco
Institute of Animal Science and Technology.
Universitat Politècnica de València
P.O. Box 22012. Valencia 46071. Spain
ablasco@dca.upv.es
www.dcam.upv.es/dcia/ablasco
05/02/15 Thursday
Posterior distributions
NOTATION
CUMULATIVE DISTRIBUTION
DENSITY DISTRIBUTION
CONDITIONAL DISTRIBUTION
MARGINAL DISTRIBUTION
MCMC
SAMPLES OF MARGINAL POSTERIOR DISTRIBUTION
GIBBS SAMPLING
The baby model
THE MODEL
WORKING WITH MCMC
LAB: HAND-MADE BAYESIAN INFERENCE WITH CHAINS
(PROGRAM “BUGS”)
How to subscribe
Please visit
www.gen2phen.it/events/winterschool2015
The full schedule is available at
www.gen2phen.it/events/winterschool2015/schedule