全球棉花供求预测 Global Supply and Demand Prospects Ray Butler, Managing Director, Cotlook Limited www.cotlook.com Zhengzhou 2010 三十年价格走势 Price developments over three decades 140.00 Cotlook A指数 The Cotlook A Index 120.00 美分/磅 US cents per lb 100.00 80.00 60.00 40.00 20.00 美国农业法案变化 US Farm law change 0.00 01-Aug-80 中国加入WTO China's WTO entry 苏联解体 Soviet Union break-up 01-Aug-90 Zhengzhou 2010 01-Aug-00 A指数含义 A Index description • CFR远东港口包括曼谷、南查邦、雅加达、香港、槟榔屿、巴生、新加坡、 釜山,日本和中国的一些主要港口、马尼拉、台南、基隆、三宝垄、泗水。 其他港口的运费差异也已经考虑在内。CFR main Far Eastern ports including Bangkok, Laemchabang, Jakarta, Hong Kong, Penang, Kelang, Singapore, Busan, principal Japanese and Chinese ports, Manila, Tainan, Keelung, Semarang, Surabaya). Minor freight differences for other destinations are taken into account. • 报价基准为成本加运费(CFR),即期信用证,1%代理佣金及合理利润。The terms quoted are Cost and Freight, Letter of Credit at sight, including one percent agent's commission and notional profit. • 质量标准为 M 1-3/32”. • 计算:每个工作日从一篮子棉花品种中选取5个最低的远东到岸价计算平均 值,这些棉花品种来自美国(三种)、印度、坦桑尼亚、乌兹别克、西非 (每天不超过两个报价)、澳大利亚、巴西、墨西哥、叙利亚、希腊、土耳 其、巴基斯坦以及中国。Calculation: Average on any day of the five cheapest from a basket of Quality basis: Middling 1-3/32”. growths, including three US, Indian, Tanzanian, Uzbekistan , any two from four West African, Australian, Brazilian, Mexican, Syrian, Greek, Turkish, Pakistan and Chinese. Zhengzhou 2010 Cotlook 双指数系统 Zhengzhou 2010 Cotlook指数与郑州期货价格 Cotlook A v ZCE 20,000 ZCE Sep 10 19,000 ZCE Jan 10 元每吨 yuan per tonne 18,000 17,000 16,000 15,000 2009/10 Cotlook 2010/11 Cotlook A 14,000 13,000 29-Jan-10 28-Feb-10 31-Mar-10 30-Apr-10 31-May-10 Zhengzhou 2010 30-Jun-10 31-Jul-10 31-Aug-10 消费量 Consumption 全球 World 中国 China 30,000 千吨 thou tonnes 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Zhengzhou 2010 全球棉花面积 World cotton area 38,000 36,000 千公顷 thou hectares 34,000 32,000 30,000 28,000 26,000 24,000 22,000 20,000 2000/01 2003/04 Zhengzhou 2010 2006/07 2009/10 全球库存变化 3,000 2,000 千吨 thou tonnes 1,000 -1,000 -2,000 -3,000 -4,000 Zhengzhou 2010 World stocks Cotlook指数 The Cotlook A Index 100.00 95.00 美分/磅 US cents per lb 90.00 85.00 80.00 75.00 70.00 65.00 60.00 55.00 50.00 03-Aug-09 06-Oct-09 09-Dec-09 11-Feb-10 Zhengzhou 2010 16-Apr-10 19-Jun-10 不确定因素 Uncertainties • 产量 Crop sizes • 政府政策 Government Policies • 纺织需求情况 Health of textile demand Zhengzhou 2010 2010/11全球棉花面积 2010/11 world cotton area 38,000 36,000 34,000 千公顷 thou hectares 32,000 30,000 28,000 26,000 24,000 22,000 20,000 2001/02 2004/05 Zhengzhou 2010 2007/08 2010/11 美国产量 US production 6,000 千吨 thou tonnes 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 2001/02 2004/05 Zhengzhou 2010 2007/08 2010/11 截至7月31日的美棉新花远期销售 US Forward Sales at July 31 7,000,000 6,000,000 装运包 running bales 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 0 1990 1994 1998 Zhengzhou 2010 2002 2006 2010 近10年美棉出口趋势 US exports – ten year history 4,500 美国农业部预 测 USDA forecast 4,000 3,500 千吨 thou tonnes 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 Zhengzhou 2010 印度棉花供求 India: supply and use 6,000 产量+进口量 Production + imports 消费量+出口量 Consumption + exports 千吨 thou tonnes 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 年度(10月1日开始) Season beginning October 1 Zhengzhou 2010 2008 2009 2010 印度结转库存 India’s carryover stocks 2010年政府预期目标 Presumed 2010 govt target 1,400印度棉花咨询委员会数据 Indian CAB estimates 库存消费比 SUR 35% 31% 1,200 30% 千吨 thou tonnes 1,000 25% 24% 800 20% 20% 600 20% 15% 15% 16% 400 10% 200 5% - 0% 1-Oct-06 1-Oct-07 1-Oct-08 Zhengzhou 2010 1-Oct-09 1-Oct-10 巴基斯坦棉花供求 Pakistan: production and consumption 3,000 产量 Production 消费量 Consumption 2,500 千吨 thou tonnes 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 2000/01 2002/03 2004/05 2006/07 Zhengzhou 2010 2008/09 2010/11 乌兹别克棉花供求 Uzbekistan: production and consumption 产量 Production 消费量 Consumption 千吨 thou tonnes 1,000 500 0 2000/01 2003/04 2006/07 Zhengzhou 2010 2009/10 非洲法郎区棉花产量 AFZ: production 3,000 千吨 thou tonnes 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 2000/01 2002/03 2004/05 Zhengzhou 2010 2006/07 2008/09 2010/11 巴西棉花供求 Brazil: supply and use 1,800,000 产量 产量+进口量 Production & imports 1,600,000 Production 消费量+出口量 Consumption & exports 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Zhengzhou 2010 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 澳大利亚棉花产量 Australian production 900 800 千吨 thou tonnes 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 - 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 Zhengzhou 2010 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 全球理论库存变化 Changes in theoretical world stocks 3,000 100.00 Cotlook A Index season's average 2,000 90.00 80.00 60.00 - 50.00 -1,000 40.00 30.00 -2,000 20.00 -3,000 10.00 -4,000 0.00 Zhengzhou 2010 US cents per lb 70.00 美分/磅 千吨 thou tonnes 1,000 Average to September 2, 2010 政府措施 Government policies • 中国 China • 印度 India • 美国农业法案争议 US Farm Bill debate Zhengzhou 2010 Cotlook 棉纱指数与A指数 Cotlook Yarn Index v A Index 2005 = 100 180.00 170.00 160.00 150.00 140.00 2010/11 Cotlook指数与 130.00 (Oct/Nov and later shipment) 120.00 110.00 A指数(与2005年指数对比,%) A Index (expressed as % of base value) 棉纱指数 Yarn Index 100.00 Series3 90.00 07-Aug-09 Zhengzhou 2010 欲询更多信息 For more information • 英文信息,请登录 Cotlook网站 English language services and international cotton prices www.cotlook.com • 中文信息,请登录中国棉花信息网 Chinese-language news and information • www.cottonchina.org Zhengzhou 2010