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The reporting process leading to
GEO-5
@ European Regional Consultation for the 12th
Global Major Groups and Stakeholders Forum
Int’l Environment House, Geneva, 27 Oct. 2010
U KT
GG L L O O B BA AL L E N E V NI RV OI NR MO E N N MT E ON U T T L OO O
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Global Environment Outlook (GEO)
UNEP’s “flagship” reporting series of
(global) Integrated Environment Assessment
reports; both a process and product(s)
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Why a GEO-5? (the mandate issue)
 The entire GEO series stems from the need to “keep under
review the state and trends of the global (and regional)
environment, and alert the global community to emerging
environmental problems and threats…” (1972 UNGA
resolution 2997; at GC-18 in 1995; and later the “Nairobi
Declaration” of GC-19 decision 19/1, Feb. 1997).
 GEO-5 was specifically mandated by UNEP GC-25 (Feb.
2009) through Decision 25/2:III (see next slide…)
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Governing Council Decision 25/2:III
 Undertake a comprehensive, integrated and scientificallycredible fifth global environmental assessment, to support
decision-making processes at all levels.
 Strengthen the policy relevance of GEO-5 by including an
analysis of appropriate policy options and their indicative
costs and benefits, and also to inform relevant global
processes and meetings where progress towards these
agreed goals and targets will be discussed.
 Organize a GEO-5 process in which the scope, objectives and
process … are finalised and adopted at a (1st) global intergovernmental and multi-stakeholder consultation; and
convene a final inter-governmental meeting to negotiate and
endorse the summary for policy-makers (SPM) based on
the scientific findings of the full report.
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Objectives of GEO-5

To inform, as appropriate, the strategic directions of the
United Nations Environment Programme.

Provide a comprehensive, scientifically-credible and
policy-relevant global IEA, with increased legitimacy
from the engagement of (all) relevant stakeholders.

Analyse appropriate policy options and their indicative
costs and benefits, to help speed up realization of internationally agreed goals and targets, including those
agreed at the Millennium Summit in 2000.

Inform relevant global processes and meetings where
progress towards these goals and targets are discussed.

Continue to build capacity of developing and trans’l.
countries for environmental assessments.
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What will be different in GEO-5?

Explicit linkages across UNEP’s Programme of Work
(e.g., with Chemicals Outlook, Training Platforms,
“One UN” entry points to national support etc.).

Regionally-driven identification of priority challenges
and promising policy options, along with capacity
building in policy analysis.

Investigation of links between environment and the
economy (including the green economy).

A “challenge scenario” articulating longer-term
options for achieving goals and targets.

Indicator-based Environmental State & trends.

Outreach as part of the design from the start.
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Proposed Contents of GEO-5 (I)
 Introduction
 Part I: Assessment of State & Trends of the Global (Reg’l) Environment
o Internationally-agreed goals and targets
o Drivers of the global environment
o Followed by separate chapters on Atmosphere, Land, Water,
Biodiversity and Chemicals
o Challenges within the Earth System
 Part II: Options for Regional Policy Action
o Policies for Environmental Sustainability: a review
o Regional priority goals & targets: options for Africa, Asia &
Pacific, Europe, LAC, N. America, W. Asia and Polar areas.
o A regional synthesis
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Proposed Contents of GEO-5 (II)
 Part III: Opportunities for a Global Response
o Global responses (“lessons learned” from regional
analyses)
- summary of high-potential policies;
- enabling conditions; and
- barriers to policy uptake.
o Challenges and opportunities
- the desirable future; the “Challenge Scenario”;
- Moving forward on greening the economy and SCP; and
the role and evolution of IEG; and
- Strengthening the global assessment process.
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GEO-5 in the Assessment Landscape
Linkages to internal and external processes:
 National and regional Environment Outlooks / State of
Environment Reports (AEO-3, DABEO, EEAoA, LAC 2010…)
 Sectoral & thematic assessments (GBO-3, OECD, FRA 2010…)
 International review processes (MDGs/Biodiversity Indicators...)
 Data & Observing Systems (GEOSS…)
 Intergovernmental Panels (IPCC; the Int’l Panel on Sustainable
Resource Management; and IPBES, Intergovernmental
Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services).
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GEO-5 Schematic Approach
Part 1. Assessing state & trends of global environment
Assess State & Trends of the Global Environment
Review Internationally
agreed Goals & Targets
• Identify key drivers of change
• Carry out indicator-based analysis of state & trends of global
environment; progress towards meeting goals & targets;
• Review emerging issues, potential tipping points,
interlinkages, persistent environmental problems,
(including MEAs & MDGs)
Part 2. identifying options for policy action within regions
Assess Options Applicable to Regions
Screen Options Applicable to Regions
• Assess promising policy options within regions
• Evaluate costs and benefits (environmental,
social & economic) through multi-criteria analysis
• Identify high potential regional policy options
relevant for immediate action
• Select subset of goals & targets (from Step 1)
as priority for regional analysis
• Survey range of policy options by sector
• Select subset of promising policy options for
further analysis
Part 3: Finding opportunities for a global response
The Long Term Global Challenge
Conduct Global Synthesis
Identify options for global actions to
enable policy responses
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• Develop normative “Challenge” scenario
that articulates longer term options for
reaching goals & targets
• Identify longer term policy responses
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Progress on GEO-5 to date

Two informal meetings to brainstorm interpretation of
Decision 25/2:III & develop a concept for the purpose of
the Intergovernmental Multi-stakeholder Consultation
(Bilthoven, Nov. 2009 and Nairobi, Jan 2010).

Internal consultations within UNEP (SMT and
Divisions), and informal presentation to CPR (11 March
2010).

1st Intergovernmental Multi-stakeholder Consultation
for GEO-5 in Nairobi (29-31 March 2010).

Holding of six Regional Consultations; establishment of
(most) Chapter Working Groups (Sept. - Oct. 2010).

Project document under Env’l. Governance, EA(d)
project 1 “Global Environment Outlook (GEO-)5”.
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GEO-5 Proposed Schedule
2010
2011
2012
March 29-31
Intergovernmental and Multi-stakeholder consultation
September - October
Regional Consultations withh stakeholders (six)
8-11 November
First GEO-5 Authors’ and Production Meeting (Cairo)
[March 2001]
Near-complete first draft of chapters
March - April
External expert review of Draft 1
[May?]
GEO-5 2nd Production and Author’s Meeting
May – June
Expert and governmental review of Draft 2
November
Final Production and Author’s Meeting
December
Assessment sign-off
January - May
Editing, design, layout, translation, printing
February
Global Intergovernmental Consultation to endorse SPM
June 5 (WED)
Launch of GEO-5
2013
G L O B A L
[GEO-5 Impact study]
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GEO-5 Process Elements
 Engagement of stakeholders
 Nomination & selection of experts
 Scientific credibility assurance
 Summary for Policy-makers
 Capacity development
 Outreach
- “hard-wired” into the GEO-5 design to reach key target audiences
- offer intermediate products and maximise GEO-5’s accessibility
 Production schedule
 Budget
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GEO-5 Process Elements
At the regional level, we need to advise on or assure:
 Selection of candidates for the inter-govt’l. High-level
Advisory Panel, and Science & Policy Advisory
Group;
 Nomination & Selection of Experts for regional multistakeholder working groups for policy analyses;
 Regional participation in author/chapter working groups
and Data & Indicators/Scenarios Working Groups;
 Involvement in Outreach throughout the process;
 Capacity Development through IEA training and
GEO Fellowship Programme.
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GEO Website
www.unep.org/geo
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GEO-5 Capacity Development
Building Assessment Expertise
 Provide training in Integrated Environmental Assessment (IEA)
 Develop tools and methodologies to support policy analysis at the
regional, sub-regional & national levels
 Build capacity to utilise outcomes of assessments
 Enhance institutional capacity through partnerships
Technology & Accessibility of Information
 Strengthen GEO Data Portal; develop specifications for ‘UNEP Live’
 Improve platforms for e-Learning and for accessing training materials
 Enhance IEA Community Platform & Trainers’ Database of resources
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GEO-5 Capacity Development
Capacity Development Process
 Networking and developing institutional partnerships
 Interactive delivery through, inter alia, web-based and
eLearning platforms
 South-South partnerships & initiatives
 Contributing to “Delivering as One UN” through UNDAFs
Who will benefit?
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Developing and transitional economy countries
Regional GEO Collaborating Centres (CCs)
Young scientists (GEO Fellowship Programme)
New/additional GEO partners
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GEO-5 Capacity Development
www.unep.org/mentor
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Proposed GEO-5 Budget
BUDGET - USD 9’325’000 total requested for 2010-12
Programme support
cost (13%), 1,000,000
Additional project
staff, travel, GEO-5
impact study,
evaluation, 1,350,000
Data&indicators,
Global and Regional
Data Portals,
1,300,000
Global and regional
launch and
outreach, 1,000,000
Production and
dissemination of
GEO-5 Report, SPM
and targeted
products, 1,500,000
Methodology
development &
training, 600,000
GEO-5
fund
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GEO-5 chapters and
SPM and regional
activities, 2,500,000
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www.unep.org/geo
N EV NI RT O ON UM T EL NO TO KO U
G L O B A L G EL NO VB I A R L O NE M
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