The future of English
Implications for BNCs
Ricardo Romero
Oxford University Press
The plan for today
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Demographic, political,
economic and language trends
in the world
Implications for Bi-national
centers
The road ahead
1
Talking about the future…
1
David Crystal
“World Englishes)”
David Graddol
“The future of English”
David Graddol
“English Next”
Analysis
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Political changes in the world
Demography
World population
Information technology
Economy
Education and mobility
1
Age and needs
1
Widening of student age and
need

Over the next
decade there
will be a
complex and
changing mix of
learner needs.
More children
will register to
learn English
Changing number of
learners
1
The rise and fall of learners

A massive increase in the
number of people learning
English has already begun, and
is likely to reach a peak of
around 2 billion in the next 10-15
years. Numbers of learners will
then decline.
People learning English 1960-2050
Non-native speakers
1
1
Rising competition

Non-native speaker providers of
ELT services will create major
competition to the UK and the US
(Reaction to certification and
standardization)
Trends in international
students
1
Irreversible trend in
international students

The recent decline in international
students studying in the main English
speaking countries is unlikely to
reverse.
800000
700000
600000
500000
400000
Series1
300000
200000
100000
0
2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09
Trends in international higher
education (Marguerite J. Dennis, 2007)
International higher education, a
$300 billion industry
The United States is attracting a
declining share of foreign
students.
1970 market share of 36.7%
1995 market share of 30%
2004 market share of 25%
2007 market share of 22%.
1
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The net contribution to the U.S.
economy by foreign students
and their families for 2005-06 is
almost 13.5 billion dollars.

Although the decline in
international student enrollment
in the United States was
exacerbated by the events of
September 11, 2001, the decline
began before then.
1
Monolingual and Native
Speakers
1
The doom of monolingualism

Monolingual English speakers
face a bleak economic future
and the barriers preventing them
from learning other languages
are rising rapidly.
Irrelevance of native speakers

Native-speaker
norms are
becoming less
relevant as
English
becomes a
component of
basic education
in many
countries.
Growth of languages on the
internet

The dominance of
English on the
internet is declining.
Other languages,
including lesserused languages, are
now proliferating.
1
1
The economic advantage is
ebbing away

The competitive advantage
which English has historically
provided its acquirers
(personally, organizationally,
and nationally) will ebb away as
English becomes a nearuniversal basic skill. The need to
maintain the advantage by
moving beyond English will be
felt more acutely.
Retraining needed for English
specialists
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Specialist English teachers will
need to acquire additional skills
as English is less often taught
as a subject on its own.
CLIL
Global issues
Psychology
other
The end of English as a
Foreign Language
Implications for BNCs
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Certification and accreditation
Re-directing student orientation for
studies abroad
Diversification in exam administration
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Young learners
General English wider scope
Special English exam
More resources for children’s programs
Changing paradigms for adult
programs
Implications for BNCs
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Redefining teacher’s profiles
Retraining teachers (CLIL)
International certification for teachers
A bigger competition for quality
teachers
Strategic alliances with universities
for teacher training opportunities
Diversification in our programs
The need to be recognized as
binational institutions of technical
assistance
Thank you!
Ricardo.Romero@oup.com