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The future of English
Implications for BNCs
Ricardo Romero
Oxford University Press
The plan for today



Demographic, political,
economic and language trends
in the world
Implications for Bi-national
centers
The road ahead
1
Talking about the future…
1
David Crystal
“World Englishes)”
David Graddol
“The future of English”
David Graddol
“English Next”
Analysis






Political changes in the world
Demography
World population
Information technology
Economy
Education and mobility
1
Age and needs
1
Widening of student age and
need

Over the next
decade there
will be a
complex and
changing mix of
learner needs.
More children
will register to
learn English
Changing number of
learners
1
The rise and fall of learners

A massive increase in the
number of people learning
English has already begun, and
is likely to reach a peak of
around 2 billion in the next 10-15
years. Numbers of learners will
then decline.
People learning English 1960-2050
Non-native speakers
1
1
Rising competition

Non-native speaker providers of
ELT services will create major
competition to the UK and the US
(Reaction to certification and
standardization)
Trends in international
students
1
Irreversible trend in
international students

The recent decline in international
students studying in the main English
speaking countries is unlikely to
reverse.
800000
700000
600000
500000
400000
Series1
300000
200000
100000
0
2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09
Trends in international higher
education (Marguerite J. Dennis, 2007)
International higher education, a
$300 billion industry
The United States is attracting a
declining share of foreign
students.
1970 market share of 36.7%
1995 market share of 30%
2004 market share of 25%
2007 market share of 22%.
1

The net contribution to the U.S.
economy by foreign students
and their families for 2005-06 is
almost 13.5 billion dollars.

Although the decline in
international student enrollment
in the United States was
exacerbated by the events of
September 11, 2001, the decline
began before then.
1
Monolingual and Native
Speakers
1
The doom of monolingualism

Monolingual English speakers
face a bleak economic future
and the barriers preventing them
from learning other languages
are rising rapidly.
Irrelevance of native speakers

Native-speaker
norms are
becoming less
relevant as
English
becomes a
component of
basic education
in many
countries.
Growth of languages on the
internet

The dominance of
English on the
internet is declining.
Other languages,
including lesserused languages, are
now proliferating.
1
1
The economic advantage is
ebbing away

The competitive advantage
which English has historically
provided its acquirers
(personally, organizationally,
and nationally) will ebb away as
English becomes a nearuniversal basic skill. The need to
maintain the advantage by
moving beyond English will be
felt more acutely.
Retraining needed for English
specialists





Specialist English teachers will
need to acquire additional skills
as English is less often taught
as a subject on its own.
CLIL
Global issues
Psychology
other
The end of English as a
Foreign Language
Implications for BNCs



Certification and accreditation
Re-directing student orientation for
studies abroad
Diversification in exam administration



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Young learners
General English wider scope
Special English exam
More resources for children’s programs
Changing paradigms for adult
programs
Implications for BNCs



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

Redefining teacher’s profiles
Retraining teachers (CLIL)
International certification for teachers
A bigger competition for quality
teachers
Strategic alliances with universities
for teacher training opportunities
Diversification in our programs
The need to be recognized as
binational institutions of technical
assistance
Thank you!
[email protected]
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