Demographic Transition in Thailand
• Population as enumerated by the censuses.
Year Population
1910 8.3 Million
1919
1929
1937
1947
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
9.2 Million
11.5 Million
14.5 Million
17.4 Million
26.3 Million
34.4 Million
44.5 Million
54.5 Million
60.9 Million
65.4 Million*
* Cross border migrants were included.
Population in Thailand increased 8 folds, from 8.3 m. in 1910 to 65.4 m. in 2010.

Demographic Transition in Thailand
Number (mill.)
Rate (per 1,000)
Population
CBR
CDR
• The “population explosion” in Thailand occurred during 1950s, 1960s to 1970s.
• CBR (>4%) – CDR (<1%)  Growth rate >3% per year.

Demographic Transition in Thailand
Number (mill.)
Rate (per 1,000)
CDR
CBR
Population
• Now, the “ Thai population ” is stabilizing at 64-65 million.
• The population growth rate is
0.5% per year.
CBR (1.2%) – CDR (0.7%)
 GR of 0.5% per year.
• The reduction of growth rate, from >3% (40 years ago) to
0.5% (now) is due mainly to sharp decline in fertility during the past 3 decades.
CBR at 4% (40 years ago) to 1.2% (now).

Fertility Transition in Thailand
Four periods of fertility
transition in Thailand:
1. High fertility : before 1970
2. Fertility decline :
1970–1990
3. Low fertility :
1991–1996
4. Below replacement fertility : 1997–present
Note :
SPC
SOFT
CPS
= Survey of Population Change
= Survey of Fertility in Thailand
= Contraceptive Prevalence Survey
LS
NS
CUPS
= Longitudinal Survey
= National Survey
= Contraceptive Use Patterns in Thailand

Fertility Transition in Thailand
Number of births
(100,000)
“Replacement level”
Note: Before 2009, numbers of births are from vital registration and TFRs are from
Survey of Population Change. After 2009, numbers of births are from projection and
TFRs are from logistic fitted.
Number of births per year has been declining.
• From 1963-1983, “one million birth population cohort”
• In 2010, 0.78 million births registered.
• TFR a 2, at least 0.9 million births needed.
• If TFR at 2020 = 1.2, number of births would be 0.6 million.

Fertility Transition in Thailand
Average number of children per woman (throughout her childbearing period)
Whole kingdom 1.5
Urban
Rural
(Source: SPC 2005 – 2006)
1.0
1.7
Highland ethnic groups
Karen
Hmong
(Source: Gray, et al. 2004)
2.2
4.8
Region
Bangkok 0.9
Central
North
Northeast 2.0
South
(Source: SPC 2005 – 2006)
1.2
1.6
1.5
Muslims in 3 most southern provinces
3.4
(Source: Est. from RH Survey 2003)
Cross-border migrant women
Myanmar 3.6
(Source: Pimonpan & Sukanya, 2004)

Number of years for TFR to decline from 5.5 to 2.2

Age group
Thailand: Population in broad age groups,
2000-2030 (thousand)
2000 2010
NUMBER
2020
Low projection
0-14
15-29
30-64
(15-64)
65+
Total
15,674
15,517
27,198
(42,715)
3,958
62,347
14,629
16,076
32,183
(48,259)
5,251
68,139
12,661
14,989
34,539
(49,528)
7,594
69,782
2030
10,203
13,857
34,199
(47,956)
11,209
69,369
PERCENTAGE
Low projection
0-14
15-29
30-64
(15-64)
65+
25
25
44
(69)
6
21
24
47
(71)
8
18
21
50
(71)
11
15
20
49
(69)
16
Total 100 100 100 100
Source: Author’s calculation; figures from United Nations Population Division, 2008

Trends in percentage of population aged 65+
Source: United Nations Population Division 2008, medium projection.

• Nearing end of population growth
• Remarkable change in age pyramids
• Declining child and young adult population
• Ageing population
• Demographic dividend ended
• Migration patterns lowering av. education
• Population decline in many rural areas
• Growth of the medium cities

Population Pyramids of Thailand
1960-2030

Thailand: Index of Growth of Age Groups,
2000-2030

Population Ageing and Growth of the
Older Population, Thailand 1970-2030

Impact of Fertility Decline
• Decrease in number of students entering compulsory education, especially primary schools in rural villages.
School size in 2008
13,909 schools with less than 120 students.
381 schools of less than 20 students.
262 schools with no students.
• Caused by a) Declining number of births b) Parents’ out-migration c) Commuting to urban schools because of better roads and transportation

• How to best utilize and care for growing elderly population?
• How to raise human capital of a shrinking workforce?
• How to prepare health care workforce to adapt to changing care needs?
• How to best utilize foreign workers?
• How to plan for growing cities and rural population decline?

Living arrangements of persons age 60 and above,
Thailand 1986-2007

Percentage of households having members attending postsecondary education, by indicator of economic status

• Over three decades, Thailand focused on lowering fertility rates
• Total fertility rate has fallen to 1.5, far below replacement level
• Longer-term implications of fertility maintained at this level or below are negative:
– Population ageing
– Contraction of workforce
– Negative population momentum – population decline

Policy Consideration
• More emphasis should be on quality than on quantity of births.
• Thailand should have both pro- and anti-natalist policy :
– Pro-natalist : among adults, intended couples.
– Anti-natalist : among adolescents.
Births from adolescent mothers, 2009
Age of mother % Number (x 1,000)
Under 15
Under 20
0.38
16.08
2.9
120.1
Source: Calculated from registered births reported in Public Health Statistics, not adjusted for under registration.

Policy Consideration
Incentives for pro-natalist :
• Tax reduction for unlimited number of children.
• Revise the regulation on the limited 3 children to receive financial and welfare assistance from the government.
• Any incentive measure must not lead to discrimination of labour employment and promotion.

• Other low-fertility Asian countries are seriously concerned
• Too slow in introducing pro-natalist policies
• Thailand should now introduce a set of measures to facilitate raising of children:
– Paid maternity (and paternity) leave
– Flexible working hours
– Eldercare support
– Subsidized childcare
– Tax incentives and/or baby bonus schemes
• Can such measures work?