Italy and the Democratic Republic of the Congo
(formerly Zaire) Illustrate the Demographic Divide
in 2008.
ITALY
DEM. REP. OF
THE CONGO
2008 Population
59.9 million
66.5 million
2025 Population
62.0 million
109.7 million
8.4 million
31.3 million
11.9 million
1.7 million
Annual Births
568,000
2.9 million
Annual Deaths
575,000
843,000
- 7,000
2.1 million
2,300
270,000
81 years
53 years
< 2.5%
74%
Population below Age 15
Population Age 65 and Older
Annual Natural Increase (births minus deaths)
Annual Infant Deaths
Life Expectancy at Birth
Percent of Population Undernourished
Source: Carl Haub and Mary Mederios Kent, 2008 World Population Data Sheet.
© 2008 POPULATION REFERENCE BUREAU
Chapter 2 Outline
• World Population Growth
• Geographic Distribution Of The
World’s Population
• Global Variation In Population Size
And Growth
• Global Demographic Contrasts
World Population Growth
• During the first 90% of human existence,
the population of the world had grown
only to the size of today’s New York City.
• Between 1750 and 1950, the world’s
population grew from 800 million to 2.5
billion.
• Since 1950 it has expanded to more than
six billion.
World Population Growth Through History
Billions
12
11
2100
10
9
Old
Stone
7 Age
8
New Stone Age
Bronze
Age
Iron
Age
6
Modern
Age
Middle
Ages
2000
Future
5
4
1975
3
1950
2
1
Black Death —The Plague
1+ million 7000 6000 5000
years
B.C. B.C. B.C.
4000
B.C.
1900
1800
3000 2000 1000 A.D. A.D. A.D. A.D. A.D. A.D.
B.C. B.C. B.C. 1 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000
Source: Population Reference Bureau; and United Nations, World Population Projections to 2100 (1998).
Why Was Early Growth Slow?
• During the first 99% of human history
death rates were high.
• During the hunting-gathering phase, life
expectancy averaged 20 years.
 More than half of children born will died
before 5.
 The average woman who survived the
reproductive years would have to bear
nearly 7 children to assure 2 survived
to adulthood.
Why Are More Recent
Increases so Rapid?
• Acceleration in population after 1750 was
due to declines in the death rate that
accompanied the Industrial Revolution.
 People were eating better, wearing
warmer clothes, bathing more often
and drinking cleaner water.
• Continuing population increases are due
to dramatic declines in mortality without
a commensurate decline in fertility.
Women of Childbearing Age and Fertility
Worldwide
3
6
2.0
2.0
2
4
Billions
1.8
3
1.3
0.9
1
2
0.6
1
0
0
1950-1955
1970-1975
Women 15 to 49
1990-1995
2010-2015
2030-2035
2045-2050
Average number of children per woman
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision (medium scenario), 2003.
Children per woman
5
To Slow Population Growth, Developing
Countries’ Fertility Decline Must Be Rapid.
Average Lifetime Births per Woman: 1800-2007
Sources: (United States) Ansley Coale and Melvin Zelnik (1963); and National Center for Health Statistics. (Bangladesh) United Nations;
Demographic and Health Surveys; and other surveys
Population in Countries With Low Fertility
Decline or Growth, 2002-2025
Percent
Country (average number of children per woman)
12
China (1.8)
South Korea (1.4)
Trinidad & Tobago (1.6)
-8
-14
-17
6
3
Italy (1.2)
Russia (1.1)
Bulgaria (1.1)
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision (medium scenario), 2003.
Orange –Greater than 100 million Lavender - 20 and 30 million
Pink –10 and 20 million
Blue - 50 and 100 million
Grey - 5 and 10 million.
Green -40 and 50 million
Yellow - 30 and 40 million
Population Growth
Year
Population
(Millions)
Average Annual
Growth Rate
Doubling
Time
–8000
4
–2000
27
0.07
1,051
–500
100
0.14
498
500
198
-0.01
-5,414
1000
290
0.08
906
Population Growth
Year
Population
(Millions)
Average Annual
Growth Rate
Doubling
Time
1500
473
0.27
258
1800
945
0.42
163
1900
1,654
0.59
118
1920
1,860
0.61
113
1940
2,300
1.05
65
Population Growth
Year
Population
(Millions)
Average Annual
Growth Rate
Doubling
Time
1960
3,039
1.33
52
1980
4,454
1.69
41
2000
6,071
1.25
55
2020
7,524
1.00
69
2040
8,492
0.65
106
Doubling Time
• The time required for a population to
double if the current rate of growth
continues.
• The doubling time is approximately equal
to 69 divided by the growth rate.
• Estimate the world’s rate of growth in the
year 2003 to be 1.2% per year, the
doubling time is 58 years.
Redistribution of the World’s
Population through Migration
• Migration streams flow from rapidly
growing areas into less rapidly growing
ones:
 Latin America and Asia to the United
States
 Asia to Canada
 Africa and Asia to Europe
• In earlier decades, as population grew
dense in a region, people moved to less
populated areas.
European Expansion
• Europeans began to stake out the less
developed areas of the world in the 15th
and 16th centuries.
• Before this expansion, Europeans
represented 18% of the world’s
population.
• By the 1930s, people of European origin
in Europe, North America, and Oceania
accounted for 35% of the world’s
population.
The Urban Revolution
• As recently as 1800, less than 1% of the
world’s population lived in cities of
100,000 or more.
• More than 1/3 of all humans now live in
cities of that size.
• Urban populations grew in some countries
even without industrialization, as places
sprang up where goods and services were
exchanged.
World Population
Increase
Time
Period
Year
Births
Deaths
Natural
Increase
132,594,000 56,826,000 75,768,000
Day
363,271
155,688
207,584
Hour
15,136
6,487
8,649
Minute
252
108
144
Second
4
2
2
Future Population Growth
More
Less
Developed Developed World
Nations
Nations
Population in
2000(millions)
Medium fertilityProjection to 2050
Low fertility Projection to 2050
High fertilityProjection to year
2050
1,194
4,877
6,071
1,220
7,699
8,919
1,084
6,325
1,370
9,263
7,409
10,63
3
World Population Clock
2009
Natural Increase
per
More Developed
Countries
Less Developed
Countries
World
Year
82,866,000
2,083,000
80,784,000
Day
227,030
5,707
217,294
158
4
154
Minute
Source: Population Reference Bureau, 2009 World Population Data Sheet.
How Many People Have
Ever Lived?
Historical Period
# Born During
Cumulative Total
the Period
Born (billions)
(billions)
200,000 BC to
8,000 BC
2.1
2.1
8,001 BC to AD
0 16.7
18.8
AD 1 to 1799
29.4
48.2
1800 to 1899
3.6
51.8
1900 to 1949
2.6
54.4
1950 to 2003
6.5
60.9