Features of the Current Arrangements Presentation to Post-Primary Review Working Group – 19 June 2003 The Selective System System of grammar and secondary schools 71 grammar schools (63,000 or 40% of pupils) 164 secondary schools (93,000 or 60% of pupils) Differences within the selective system Regional variations in access to places The Selective System in Practice 66% of P7 pupils sat the 2002/03 tests Admission to grammar schools: 35.3% (2002/03) Over/under-subscription Negligible movement between school types until age 16 How does the NI system perform compared to other countries? NI England 20 01 /02 20 00 /01 19 99 /00 19 98 /99 19 97 /98 19 96 /97 19 95 /96 19 94 /95 19 93 /94 19 92 /93 % of Pupils UK Comparisons: 2+ ‘A’ levels A-E 100 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 NI England Wales Scotland 20 01 /0 20 00 /0 19 99 /0 19 98 /9 19 97 /9 19 96 /9 19 95 /9 19 94 /9 19 93 /9 19 92 /9 19 91 /9 2 1 0 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 % of Pupils UK Comparisons: 5+ GCSEs A*-C 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 NI England Wales 20 01 /02 20 00 /01 19 99 /00 19 98 /99 19 97 /98 19 96 /97 19 95 /96 19 94 /95 19 93 /94 19 92 /93 19 91 /92 % of Pupils UK Comparisons: 5+ GCSE A*-G 100 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 NI England Wales 20 01 /0 2 20 00 /0 1 19 99 /0 0 19 98 /9 9 19 97 /9 8 19 96 /9 7 19 95 /9 6 19 94 /9 5 19 93 /9 4 19 92 /9 3 19 91 /9 2 % of Pupils UK Comparisons: No GCSEs 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Average GCSE Point Scores Northern Ireland England Male Female 34.0 41.6 All Pupils 37.7 37.4 42.9 40.1 UK Comparisons: Average GCSE Point Scores 60 Average Point Score 50 40 35.1 37 36.3 38.1 36.9 38.9 36.9 39.3 37.7 40.1 30 20 10 0 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 Year Northern Ireland England 2001/02 International Comparisons: PISA and International Adult Literacy Survey Significantly better than OECD average. Around 10th out of 32 in Reading, Maths and Science. Performed similar to England (and Scotland). One of the widest ranges of achievement. 24% of NI workforce at lowest literacy level. How Does the NI System perform for different groups? % Grade A in Transfer Test by Free School Meal Band 2001/02 60 % of Pupils 50 40 30 20 10 0 < 11% 11 - 20% 21 - 30% 31 - 40% 41 - 50% FSM Band 51% + Average GCSE Point Score by Free School Meal Band (2001/02) for Secondary Schools 35 Average GCSE Point Score 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 <20 20-29 30-39 40-49 FSM Band 50-59 60+ % of Pupils entitled to Free School Meals Grammar Secondary Catholic Other Managed Managed 11.7 3.7 37.0 22.3 Overall 7.3 29.4 5+ GCSEs A*-C for FSM and Non-FSM School Leavers 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 Non-FSM FSM 20 00 /0 1 19 99 /0 0 19 98 /9 9 19 97 /9 8 19 96 /9 7 19 95 /9 6 19 94 /9 5 10 5+ GCSEs A*-G by FSM and Non-FSM School Leavers 100 90 80 70 60 50 Non-FSM FSM 20 00 /01 19 99 /00 19 98 /99 19 97 /98 19 96 /97 19 95 /96 19 94 /95 40 No GCSEs by FSM and Non-FSM School Leavers 30 25 20 15 10 5 Non-FSM FSM 20 00 /01 19 99 /00 19 98 /99 19 97 /98 19 96 /97 19 95 /96 19 94 /95 0 How does performance in Grammar and Secondary schools compare? .9 59 10 .9 -1 4 15 .9 -1 9 20 .9 -2 4 25 .9 -2 9 30 .9 -3 4 35 .9 -3 9 40 .9 -4 4 45 .9 -4 9 50 .9 -5 4 55 .9 -5 9 60 .9 -6 4 65 .9 -6 9 70 .9 -7 4 75 .9 -7 9 80 .9 -8 4 85 .9 -8 9. 9 04 % of Pupils GCSE Point Scores for All Pupils 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Point Score Grammar and Secondary Comparisons % achieving Secondary Grammar 5 or more GCSEs A*-C 37 95 5 or more GCSEs A*-G 80 100 Average GCSE Point Score 28 57 .9 59 10 .9 -1 4 15 .9 -1 9 20 .9 -2 4 25 .9 -2 9 30 .9 -3 4 35 .9 -3 9 40 .9 -4 4 45 .9 -4 50 9.9 -5 4 55 .9 -5 9 60 .9 -6 4 65 .9 70 69.9 -7 4. 75 9 9 -7 9 80 .9 -8 4 85 .9 -8 90 9.9 -9 4. 9 04 % of Pupils GCSE Point Scores for Secondary and Grammar Pupils 20 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Point Score Secondary Grammar Comparison of top achieving secondary school pupils with grammar pupils Top 25% of Secondary School Leavers % All Grammar School Leavers % 5+ GCSE’s A*-C 100 96 5+ GCSE’s A*-G 100 99 Variation in School Performance 2001/02 Grammar Schools Top 10% Bottom 10% 3+ A Levels A-C 78% 46% 7+ GCSEs A*-C 99% 74% Secondary Schools Top 10% Bottom 10% 5+GCSEs A*-C 63% 12% 5+GCSEs A*-G 98% 53% How Does the NI system perform at post-16? Post-16 Participation Rates Northern Ireland England* Schools FE Overall 44.7 27.7 72.4 31.3 33.5 64.9 •2001 Provisional figures for England •Sixth Form Colleges included in FE figure for England Post-16 Provision in Secondary Schools Schools % of cohort % of Yr12 secondary pupils No % No 6th Form 52 22 17 27 Limited provision (<80 pupils) 75 32 25 39 Of which Repeaters only 15 6 3 5 127 54 42 66 No or limited provision Access To Higher Education From social classes III, IV,V UK 27% Scotland 27% NI 31% Routes to Higher Education •55% from grammar schools •45% from secondary schools, FE Colleges and other sources •Majority of working class entrants to HE come through non-grammar routes Demography What impact will demography have on post-primary education? Demography Population projections Impact on post-primary population Impact on secondary schools Impact on grammar schools Population Projections 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 Age 11-18 20 40 20 25 20 20 20 15 20 10 20 05 20 01 0 Population Projections 11-18 population % decrease 2001 2010 2020 2040 212,541 195,086 172,868 158,058 0 8 19 26 Post-Primary Age Population to decline by a quarter by 2040 How will this affect post-primary schools? School Population Projections 19 97 /9 19 8 98 /9 19 9 99 /0 20 0 00 /0 20 1 01 /0 20 2 02 /0 20 3 03 /0 20 4 04 /0 20 5 05 /0 20 6 06 /0 20 7 07 /0 20 8 08 /0 9 180,000 160,000 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 Grammar Secondary All Schools Secondary:Grammar Ratios % Secondary % Grammar 2002 2010 2015 2020 2025 59 56 51 50 49 41 44 49 50 51 By 2020 grammar and secondary ration will be 50:50 Impact on Secondary Schools By 2010 - reduction of 12,000 pupils in secondary schools which equates to 21 secondary schools (based on average size of 560) By 2020 - 31,000 pupils (55 schools) Surplus Places 13,000 surplus places in post-primary schools (8%) Almost 70% (113) secondary schools have surplus places Nearly half (76) have 10% or more surplus places Impact on Secondary Schools Viability of some schools – closures, amalgamations Ability mix within schools Impact will be greater in particular areas Impact on Grammar Schools Ability mix within schools - 8% of admissions to grammar schools are Cs or Ds at present - 21 grammar schools with 10% admissions with Cs and Ds in Transfer Test - 10 schools with 20% or more Cs and Ds admitted Demography: Key Points Population to fall by a quarter by 2040 Full impact on secondary sector Implications for rationalisation Implications for ability mix in secondary and grammar schools Forces For Change Dissatisfaction with Transfer Test Weaknesses in post-16 provision Curricular change Falling post-primary demography Changing social profile of intakes to HE Forces for Change (Cont) Equality/human rights/inclusion agenda Social cohesion Globalisation/economic development Local Assembly Discussion What issues have been raised by this presentation?