Update of Monthly
Tourism Indicators
16 June 2010
1
Overview
• Air passenger traffic volumes plummeted in April, as the
Icelandic volcanic eruption led to widespread disruption for
would-be travellers. The regional breakdown indicated that the
slowdown was truly global although the impact was most
apparent in Europe where volumes were down 11.7% on the year
in April compared to a 6% rise in March.
• In countries where data is available the impact of events in April
was clear, if not as marked as suggested by the IATA figures. For
that group of 20 countries growth slowed to 6.9% on the year
compared to 11.8% in March. The cause of this discrepancy is
probably that countries where arrivals data was available through
to April were principally located in Asia-Pacific, where the fallout
from the eruption was less severe.
• The incorporation of new data on visitor arrivals from Haver,
Eurostat and PATA reaffirms our view that 2010Q1 was marked
by a relatively robust rebound in activity. Based on available data
we estimate that arrivals were up by 5.7% on the year, although
mature markets, particularly in Europe continued to struggle.
2
Air passenger volumes growth
plummets in April…
International air passenger traffic growth
% year, RPK
15
12
9
3mth mav
6
3
0
-3
-6
-9
RPK = revenue passenger kms
-12
Jan-05
Jan-06
Source: IATA
3
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
…as volcanic eruption inflicts
widespread damage…
International air passenger growth by region
% yr
28
24
February
March
20
16
12
8
4
0
-4
April
-8
-12
-16
Africa Asia/Pacific Europe
Source: IATA
4
Latin
America
Mid.East N.America
World
…following relatively strong Q1
World: Short-term tourism indicators
% year, 3mth mav
10
IATA international traffic growth (RPK)
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
-12
`
Annual
data/forecast for
visitor arrivals
Overnight visitor
arrivals†
RPK = revenue passenger kms
†based upon monthly data covering 80% of world arrivals
-14
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Source: IATA, PATA, Haver, Eurostat, Oxford Economics, WTTC, CTO
5
18 countries yet to provide 2010 data
Overnight visitor arrival growth in 2010
(% year-on-year, January 2010 to the indicated month)
Austria
Belgium
Denmark
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Italy
Luxembourg
Netherlands
Portugal
Spain
Sweden
UK
Bulgaria
Cyprus
Year to:
%
Mar
#N/A
Mar
Jan
Mar
Feb
#N/A
Jan
#N/A
Jan
Feb
Mar
#N/A
Apr
Feb
Apr
4.8
-5.1
-6.8
-2.4
-1.6
7.0
-7.7
3.8
1.1
0.9
11.0
0.1
0.1
-4.0
7.9
-8.2
Year to:
%
Canada
US
Mexico
Chile
Anguilla
Antigua & Barbuda
Aruba
Bahamas
Barbados
Bermuda
Cayman Islands
Cuba
Dom Republic
Dominica
Grenada
Jamaica
Mar
Jan
Mar
Apr
#N/A
#N/A
Feb
#N/A
Apr
Jan
Mar
Feb
Apr
Feb
Mar
Feb
-0.2
8.3
-2.8
-8.1
-16.0
-11.8
2.0
-13.8
-0.5
-17.9
8.3
-3.4
2.3
-4.4
0.0
6.3
#N/A
-8.9
Jan
8.3
%
Apr
Apr
Apr
Apr
May
Apr
Apr
16.0
0.8
16.3
23.3
11.3
17.1
21.0
#N/A
May
Apr
Mar
#N/A
Jan
Apr
Mar
#N/A
-3.5
48.5
11.1
14.5
15.6
1.4
37.4
21.8
4.3
Singapore
Apr
19.8
Thailand
Apr
21.9
Pakistan
Sri Lanka
Cambodia
Indonesia
Laos
Malaysia
Myanmar
Papua New Guinea
Philippines
Czech Rep
Mar
1.0
Martinique
Estonia
Feb
13.7
Puerto Rica
Hungary
#N/A
-9.7
St Kitts
#N/A
-12.5
Vietnam
Apr
37.5
Latvia
Jan
2.5
St Lucia
Mar
12.5
Australia
Apr
3.5
Lithuania
Jan
-10.7
St Vincent
#N/A
-10.3
New Zealand
Mar
4.1
Malta
Feb
6.5
British Virgin Islands
#N/A
-25.0
Fiji
Mar
26.4
Poland
Feb
4.4
US Virgin Islands
Mar
15.0
Kiribati
#N/A
30.8
Romania
Feb
-3.2
Bahrain
Mar
7.3
Tonga
Feb
-8.9
Slovakia
#N/A
-26.9
Israel
May
30.0
Vanuatu
Mar
-18.0
Slovenia
Montenegro
Mar
Mar
4.0
-14.0
Jordan
Lebanon
Apr
Mar
32.9
23.1
REGIONAL ESTIMATES (1)
Europe
Mar
0.8
Croatia
Iceland
Norway
Switzerland
Turkey
Feb
Feb
#N/A
Feb
Apr
-15.5
5.0
-8.8
1.8
6.8
Mar
Mar
Feb
Apr
Apr
Apr
29.0
7.3
7.8
-3.6
28.4
3.6
Americas
Middle East
Africa
Asia-Pacific
Mar
Mar
Mar
Mar
4.1
17.6
16.2
11.2
WORLD
Mar
5.7
Egypt
Mauritius
South Africa
Tunisia
Japan
China
NB. Where there is no 2010 data yet available 2009 growth is listed instead
6
Year to:
Hong Kong
South Korea
Macau
Taiwan
India
Maldives
Nepal
(1) based on these 90 countries only; coverage good for Europe, North America, the Caribbean and Asia-Pacific but very limited elsewhere
Source: Oxford Economics