Global Ozone Project Curriculum Climate Change/CO2 Rev 10 Brian Carpenter, Jessa Ellenburg and John Birks Learning Objectives At the end of this lesson students should be able to: • Define and compare both weather and climate. • Describe the greenhouse effect and how it warms the Earth. • Describe the different sources of CO2 emissions, both natural and anthropogenic. • Discuss some of the projected effects of rising CO2 concentrations. Global Ozone Project Curriculum Part 1: Weather vs. Climate Weather People have long been fascinated with the weather. How often have your travels been delayed because of the local weather conditions? Rain storm in Fog Dam Conservation Reserve, Northern Territory, Australia. Weather Maps Local weather data is obtained from a large array of surface weather stations and are then plotted as surface weather maps. This aids us in visualizing, measuring and predicting local weather patterns. Weather Predicting the weather is extremely challenging Snow and ice storm showing effect on power lines. In fact, we are only able to accurately forecast the weather for up to about three days in advance. Certainty A fact or truth that is absolutely certain must be unquestionably established and without error. Meteorologists are fundamentally limited in their ability to predict the weather. Due to the immense complexity and variability in the atmosphere, they can never be completely certain. Chaotic Weather Weather is difficult to predict because it is chaotic! 1 2 Chaos Theory describes a state of utter confusion or disorder 3 Edward Lorenz wrote in his landmark paper on chaos in 1963,"... if the theory were correct, one flap of a seagull's wings would be enough to alter the course of weather forever". Weather vs. Climate What is Climate? Climate • Climate is the long term average of weather conditions. • Climate is more predictable than weather, because many of the large fluctuations that are inherent in weather are averaged out in climate. Climate The climate of a given region is characterized by the averages over time of weather data, such as humidity, wind speed and direction, atmospheric pressure, and precipitation. (Click on the image to loop through the seasons) Monthly mean temperatures averaged over 1961-1990. This shows how one aspect of climate varies with location and season. These averages are affected by multiple factors including latitude, altitude, type of terrain, and proximity to water. Global Ozone Project Curriculum Part 2: The Greenhouse Effect The Greenhouse Effect To understand climate change, we first need to understand the Greenhouse Effect Solar Radiation Earth receives nearly all of its energy from the sun and the constant incoming solar radiation that it provides. Electromagnetic Spectrum Radiation Everything on Earth, including humans, emits radiation! The wavelength of the radiation depends on the temperature of the object, the Blackbody Temperature. Black body emission at visible wavelengths emanating from molten lava in Kilauea, Hawaii. Infrared Radiation Thermogram (infrared image) of a house in false color. All objects emit thermal radiation, the intensity increasing with higher temperatures. In this image you can see where energy is escaping through the windows, roof top and eves. Full Body Thermogram Can be used to diagnose a variety of diseases. Infrared Radiation and Blackbody Earth The Earth is constantly emitting longwave (infrared) radiation toward the atmosphere! Albedo The albedo of an object is the extent to which it reflects radiation. This is why different regions of the earth reflect radiation at varying intensities. Earth’s Temperature The blackbody temperature of the Earth is about –18°C = -.4°F This is what the temperature of Earth would be without an atmosphere. However, the gases in our atmosphere trap heat radiating from the earth, warming our average surface temperature to about 15° C = 59° F Why is the average surface temperature of the Earth so much warmer than the blackbody temperature? Answer: The “Greenhouse Effect” Frozen Earth Without the atmosphere and greenhouse gases like CO2, Earth would be a very cold, frozen rock. Radiation and the Greenhouse Effect Picture the Earth as a barren rock, with no atmosphere or greenhouse gases. If there were no greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, all of the Earth’s heat (radiation) would escape into space! The Greenhouse Effect Now picture the barren rock Earth surrounded by an atmosphere and greenhouse gases. Some of the Earth’s radiation is absorbed in the atmosphere by greenhouse gases. Of the energy absorbed by the atmosphere, some escapes to space, and some is radiated back, heating Earth’s surfaces. This is the Greenhouse Effect! The Greenhouse Effect What are some other examples of the greenhouse effect? Global Ozone Project Curriculum Part 3: Greenhouse Gases The Gases in Our Atmosphere Greenhouse Gases • Greenhouse gases are special because they absorb energy (radiation) of the wavelengths (longwave) emitted by the Earth. Which gases do this? • In general, any atmospheric gas that is relatively transparent to the Sun’s energy but absorbs the Earth’s energy. Greenhouse Gases Greenhouse gases in order of energy trapping impact: 1. Water vapor Humans are increasing the 2. Carbon dioxide concentrations of #’s 2 - 7! 3. Tropospheric ozone 4. Methane 5. CFCs, HCFCs and HFCs 6. Nitrous Oxide 7. Other Minor Compounds What is CO2? • A colorless, odorless gas produced from both natural and human (anthropogenic) sources • An important component of Earth’s atmosphere because it absorbs and emits infrared radiation, thereby playing a large role in the greenhouse effect. Chemical Structure of C02: Two Oxygen atoms attached to one Carbon atom The Carbon Cycle Top Natural Source of CO2: Respiration Bacterial Respiration in Soils, etc. Bacterial Respiration During Animal/Plant Decay Top Anthropogenic Sources of CO2 1 Burning Fossil Fuels This is the primary anthropogenic source of CO2 in the atmosphere. 2 Land Use Changes Deforestation destroys forests that would have otherwise absorbed CO2 from the atmosphere. Slash and burn agriculture is a double whammy, it destroys forests, but also releases CO2 when the forests are burned. Burning of Fossil Fuels: Anthropogenic Source of CO2 This graph displays the different sources of anthropogenic CO2 emissions and how they have increased from the year 1800 to 2000 The Atmospheric CO2 Record Global Ozone Project Curriculum Part 4: Global Climate Change Global Climate Change Given that temperature is just one aspect of climate, many scientists prefer the term "Global Climate Change“ (rather than “Global Warming“) to describe the effects of increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases on our climate and atmosphere. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) All of the following slides on global climate change are based on, and consistent with, the topics discussed within the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). In the AR4, scientists have found and agree that: • Warming of the climate system is unequivocal (unquestionable). • Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations. – Very likely means "the assessed likelihood, using expert judgment" is over 90%. How Do We Know the Atmosphere is Warming? The Global Temperature Record Global Temperature Anomalies in Celsius Further evidence that temperatures are rising. Evidence of Climate Change •Sea level rise •Warming oceans •Shrinking ice sheets •Declining Arctic sea ice •Glacial retreat •Increase in extreme events •Ocean acidification Sea Level Rise (1880 – 2000) Sea Level Rise If sea levels were to rise four feet – within the range of end-of-century projections for the New Orleans, Louisiana region – much of New Orleans and many of the highways would be under water. Declining Sea Ice Glacial Retreat Retreat of Greenland's Helheim Glacier from 2001 to 2005 (image from 2005 is on the top). The glacier is on the left and is retreating from right to left. Glacial Retreat Mount Kilimanjaro 1993 Mount Kilimanjaro 2000 Ocean Acidification – Coral Bleaching Changing Planet Video Series Learn more about our changing planet in these videos. Click Here!