Climate Change to 2030
Re-defining Terroir
Professor Snow Barlow ASTE, FAIAST
Melbourne School of Land and Environment
University of Melbourne
The globe is warming at an increasing rate
IPCC 2007
South Eastern Australia is also
warming
2030
TRENDS IN PHENOLOGY Côtes-du-Rhône
DATE DE DEBUT VENDANGES A CHATEAUNEUF DU PAPE depuis 1945
11-oct
6-oct
1-oct
26-sept
21-sept
16-sept
11-sept
6-sept
1-sept
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Ganichot, 2002
Vines are and will respond to this warming
Pinot Noir, Main Ridge Estate, Mornington Peninsula, Victoria
28-May
y = -1.83x + 39925
21-May
R2 = 0.62
Date when grapes reached 21 Brix
14-May
10th Apr average pre1998
7-May
30-Apr
23-Apr
16-Apr
9-Apr
28 days
13th Mar average
1998 and post
2-Apr
26-Mar
19-Mar
12-Mar
5-Mar
26-Feb
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
A shift in ‘average date when grapes reach 21°Brix’ of about 28 days for Pinot
Noir
between 1984-1997 and 1998-2009
Webb, Whetton and Barlow (in press)
Future climates will change in both mean
and variance of temperature and rainfall
Models and observations indicate
increases in both
Mean temperatures
Temperature Variance
resulting in
More hot weather and extreme
events
Less change in cold weather
 frost uncertain
IPCC 2007
Future Environments for Viticulture –
Southern Australia
• Temperature
– + 0.7-1.2 C in 2030 and +2.3- 3.5 C in 2070
– More extreme events – heat waves
• Rainfall
– - 4% by 2030 and -12-13% by 2070
– Vine water use up + 7% in 2030 and +20-25% 2070
– Runoff is more severely affected
• Frost
– Difficult to know , but could be worse
• Carbon Dioxide
– What will 450ppm do ?
Climate driven changes in phenology exacerbate post
verasion temperature increases
Co onawarra
21
Average monthly temperature
20
Vic/NSW Murray Valley
Ye ar
2050
2030
1990
19
18
4.2 °C
17
16
15
2.5 °C
14
13
12
Janu ary
February
March
February
March
April
May
Ap ril
May
Webb, Whetton and Barlow 2008
Vines are and will respond to this warming
But is it temperature alone ?
Pinot Noir, Main Ridge Estate, Mornington Peninsula, Victoria
28-May
y = -1.83x + 39925
21-May
R2 = 0.62
Date when grapes reached 21 Brix
14-May
10th Apr average pre1998
7-May
30-Apr
23-Apr
16-Apr
9-Apr
28 days
13th Mar average
1998 and post
2-Apr
26-Mar
19-Mar
12-Mar
5-Mar
26-Feb
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
A shift in ‘average date when grapes reach 21°Brix’ of about 28 days for Pinot
Noir
between 1984-1997 and 1998-2009
Webb, Whetton and Barlow (in press)
Elevated CO2 increases Canopy Temperature
Free air CO2 enrichment -FACE
 CO2
enrichment increases crop growth by approximately 20%
 CO2 enrichment decreases water loss and increases canopy temperature
Elevated CO2 increases the capacity of the
leaf to produce sugar at high temperatures
Photosynthesis
•Leaves are more tolerant
of high temperatures at
elevated CO2
•Photosynthetic rates and
carbon accumulation can
be higher at these high
temperatures
•Potential for high sugar
and compressed vinatges
Leaf temperature (0C)
Long 1991
Alcohol Contents of wine are increasing
Godden & Gishen 2005
A word from Charles Darwin
“It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor
the most intelligent that survives.”
“It is the one that is the most adaptable to change.”
Climate Change Adaptation Framework
Transformation
Changed industries
New products
Different Systems
New production
areas
Adapting
Systems
New crops
New cropping systems
New irrigation system
New Markets
Adaptation
Actions
In situ
Adaptive
Management
Transformation to new climate ,
Strategic system adaptation
Current productivity
programs
Variety,
Canopy man
Irrigation Man
Pest & Diseae
Severity of Climate Change- Temp, Rainfall &
Extreme Events
Need good economic models to assist producers define the milestones
Climate Change Projections -2030
Adelaide Hills Wine Region
Region- Adelaide Hills
2030 high emissions projected change
1970-2005 baseline
Percent Probability
CLIMATE VARIABLE
10
50
90
potential evapotranspiration (%)
1.1
6.6
4.1
-14.8
-13.20
-7.1
-1.5
-0.6
-0.2
solar radiation(%)
0.1
0.7
1.5
Temperature (°C)
+0.5
+0.8
+1.3
wind speed (%)
-2.8
0.4
3.4
t_max (°C)
+0.6
+0.9
+1.4
t_min (°C)
+0.5
+0.8
+1.2
Rainfall (%)
relative humidity (%)
Wine industry adaptation to climate
change
• In situ Adaptation
–
–
–
–
–
Irrigation management of extreme events
Secure water
Modified canopy management
Re-evaluate crop load /quality relationships
Evolve wine styles
• System Adaptation
–
–
–
–
Change variety /rootstock
Change row orientation /canopy management
Change wine style
Investigate delays of phenology
• Transformation
–
–
–
–
–
Same wine style –new terroir
Row orientation
Secure water –surface/ground
Alcohol management
Flavour management
How do these warmer ripening temperatures
impact on grape and wine quality ?
Cabernet Sauvignon
(Weighted average weighbridge price 1999-2003)
2200
2000
Price ($/tonne)
1800
Coonawarra
Riverland
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
Regional Average Mean January Temperature
Gippsland
Coonawarra
Vic/NSW Murray
Valley
Gippsland
Yarra Riverland
Valley
Webb, Whetton
and Barlow
Tasmania
Yarra
Valley 2008
Potential reduction in winegrape value from
climate change in 2030 costmax30
no price data
max30
0-5
Less impact
Hunter Valley
5 - 17%
Year 2030
6 - 10
11 - 15
16 - 20
Riverina
16- 52%
21 - 25
26 - 30
31 - 35
36 - 40
41 - 45
46 - 50
51 - 55
Coonawarra
1 - 4%
More impact
56 - 60
61 - 65
Yarra Valley
4 - 10%
66 - 70
71 - 75
Margaret River
76 - 80
3 - 7%
81 - 85
86 - 90
Wine Region Map provided by AWBC
Climate data extracted from OzClim
91 - 95
96 - 100
No price data
* measured by surrogate for quality: $/tonne
Grapevine development and maturity is strongly
influenced by ambient temperature
Jones 2007
Winegrape viticulture is practiced internationally within
a relatively narrow latitude band and temperature range
2050 Isotherms move poleward by 150-300km - NH area expands ,SH declines
Jones 2008
% change in land area with equivalent climate
Drop Page Fields Here
Sum of Percent Change
30%
21%
20%
14%
13%
10%
10%
5%
2%
0%
0%
-10%
-10%
-11%
-20%
-15%
-16%
-19%
warming
-20%
-22%
-30%
-30%
-31%
-40%
-33%
-38%
-43%
-46%
-50%
-54%
-60%
Total
Area
1
e.g. Pinot Noir
15.8-19.1ºC
2
C. Sauvignon
19.1-20.2ºC
2030 mid warming
3
Area
Many
20.2-20.7ºC
4
Shiraz
20.7-22.3ºC
2050 low warming
5
Verdelho
22.3-23.4ºC
6
Chenin Blanc
23.4-24.8ºC
2050 high warming
/01
/2
/01 009
1 3 /2 0
/01 09
1 4 /2 0
09
/0
1 5 1 /2 0
/01 09
1 6 /2 0
09
/0
1 7 1 /2 0
/01 09
1 8 /2 0
09
/0
1 9 1 /2 0
/01 09
2 0 /2 0
/01 09
2 1 /2 0
09
/0
2 2 1 /2 0
/01 09
2 3 /2 0
09
/0
2 4 1 /2 0
/01 09
2 5 /2 0
09
/0
2 6 1 /2 0
/01 09
2 7 /2 0
09
/0
2 8 1 /2 0
/01 09
2 9 /2 0
09
/0
3 0 1 /2 0
/01 09
3 1 /2 0
/01 09
/
1/ 200
02 9
2 / /2 0 0
02
/ 9
3/ 200
02
9
4 / /2 0 0
02
/ 9
5/ 200
02
9
6 / /2 0 0
02
/ 9
7/ 200
02
9
8 / /2 0 0
02
/ 9
9/ 200
02
9
/2
00
9
12
11
Temperature (°C)
Black Saturday
Smoke taint?
50
Damage to vineyards reported
45
40
35
30
25
20
Mildura (Sunraysia)
15
Launceston Airport (Tasmania)
Cerberus (Mornington Peninsula)
10
In the past 200 years, greenhouse gases have continued to increase, and
the Earth has warmed
1.0
Cape Grim and South Pole
Law Dome ice cores
temperature change
350
300
0.5
0.0
250
-0.5
1000
200
800
600
400
years before 2000 AD
200
0
CO2 (ppm )
o
temperature ( C)
Carbon dioxide and temperature last 1000 years
Average monthly temperature (°C)
Margaret River
Vic/NSW Murray Valley
Ye ar
22
2050
2030
1990
+2C
+2.2C
21
+1C
+1.4C
Cabernet Sauvignon
20
Chardonnay
19
18
17
January
February
March
April
May
16
January
February
March
April
VineLOGIC phenology model employed for this analysis (CRCV)
May
B lackwoo d Vall ey
Geographe
Great Southern
Margaret Ri ver
Perth Hi l ls
Swan Di stri ct
B lackwoo d Vall ey
Geographe
Great Southern
Distribution of varieties (Bearing hectares) in 2002
in selected wine regions of Western Australia
(Source ABS)
Caber net Sauvignon
Malbe c
Me rlot
Pinot Noir
Shiraz
Chardonnay
Chenin Blanc
Colom bar d
Rie sling
Sauvignon Blanc
Sem illon
Caber net Franc
Tram ine r
Ve rdelho
Warming has dual effects
(°C)
Margaret R iver
Vic/NSW Murray Valley
Ye ar
Average monthly temperature
22
+2C
21
20
2050
2030
1990
+2.2C
+1C
+1.4C
Chardonnay
Cabernet Sauvignon
19
18
17
January
February
March
April
May
16
January
February
March
April
VineLOGIC phenology model employed for this analysis (CRCV)
May
Impacts of Climate change on Grape ripening
temperatures
Coonawarra
21
Average monthly temperature
20
Vic/NSW Murray Valley
Ye ar
19
2050
2030
1990
18
17
16
4.2 °C
15
2.5 °C
14
13
12
January
February
February
March
April
March
April
May
May
TRENDS IN PHENOLOGY Côtes-du-Rhône
DATE DE DEBUT VENDANGES A CHATEAUNEUF DU PAPE depuis 1945
11-oct
6-oct
1-oct
26-sept
21-sept
16-sept
11-sept
6-sept
1-sept
1945
Ganichot, 2002
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Australian Phenology Trends for vintage ,
sugar and alcohol
• Australian vintages are moving forward
at about 1 day per year
• Assuming average sugar accumulations
of 1 Be’/week in final stages of ripening
• 1 day per year is equivalent of 0.14%
sugar per year
• AWRI (Creina Stockley) reported today
average increases of 0.14% alcohol
increase per year over the same period
(1990-2003)
TRENDS IN PHENOLOGY Côtes-du-Rhône
DATE DE DEBUT VENDANGES A CHATEAUNEUF DU PAPE depuis 1945
11-oct
6-oct
1-oct
26-sept
21-sept
16-sept
11-sept
6-sept
1-sept
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Ganichot, 2002
Grapevine Phenology Responds strongly to
Temperature
Greg Jones 2008
Winegrape viticulture is practiced internationally within
a relatively narrow latitude band and temperature range
Finding the ‘Right’ Climate
00midgp6
00midgp5
00midgp4
Present Climate
00midgp3
00midgp2
00midgp1
Year 2050 mid warming
E.g.
Chenin
Blanc
Verdelho
Riesling
Shiraz
Semillon
No varietal
preference
Cab Sauv.
Merlot
Pinot Noir
Chard.
Warmer climate varieties
Cooler climate varieties
Climate Suitability will move South with
Climate Change
Year 2030 mid warming
Year 2050 high warming
2030 lower warming
2050 lower warming
2030 higher warming
2050 higher warming
Adaptive challenges
What will happen
behind this
‘trailing margin’?
River basins
Irrigation regions
Year 2050 lower warming
Wine regions
• Current infrastructure and production is concentrated in the
traditional irrigation regions (~60%).
• Need to find varieties suitable for this warmer ‘trailing
margin’.
The temperature sensitivity model
Cabernet Sauvignon
(Weighted average weighbridge price 1999-2003)
2200
Rsq=0.6094
2000
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
Regional Average Mean January Temperature
25
Are these phenology changes driven by more
than temperature ?- Carbon Dioxide