Demand Forecasting Overview
May 30, 2013
Agenda
• Overview of Demand Forecasting Model
• Demand Forecasting
Market Research and Analysis
Overview of Demand Forecasting Model
• Demand forecasts are developed using models created and
maintained for Amtrak by AECOM
• Separate models have been developed for the:
– Northeast Corridor
– Long Distance routes
– State Corridor routes
• These models are used to forecast both:
– The expected demand for the current service (FY14 forecast as an example)
– The impact of a proposed change of service
• Proposed changes of service include:
– Adding a station
– Adding a frequency
– Change in travel time
– Change in schedule
– Service change (WiFi as an example)
Market Research and Analysis
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Composition of the Models
• The demand forecast models are based on extensive market research
and other travel market data and inputs
• Market research provides insight on both Amtrak customers’ and
travel consumers’ sensitivity to:
– Departure and arrival time
– Travel time
– On-time Performance (OTP)
– Price
– Frequency
• Travel market data and inputs include:
– Amtrak ridership and ticket revenue data
– Amtrak timetables and pricing
– FAA air passenger data
– Airline schedules and fares
– Socio-economic data and forecasts (provided by Moody’s Economy.com)
– Highway network data providing competing auto travel times
Market Research and Analysis
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Composition of the Models (continued)
• Key independent variables that drive the model forecasts include:
– Travel time
– Frequency
– Departure/arrival time-of-day slots
– Average rail fares
– OTP
– Travel time and cost of competing modes of travel
– Population, employment, and income of each market served
Market Research and Analysis
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How Forecasts are Developed
• The NEC and State Corridor models apply a two-stage approach:
– First, the total travel market size (all modes) is forecasted
– Then the total demand is divided by mode
• Forecasts are built on the actual demand for each market over the last
12 months
• Forecast are done at the market/city-pair level; the value for each of
the independent variables listed below is determined for each
market/city-pair
– Travel time
– Frequency
– Departure/arrival time-of-day slots
– Average rail fares
– OTP
– Travel time and cost of competing modes of travel
– Population, employment, and income of each market served
Market Research and Analysis
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Examples of Recent Types of Demand Forecasts
• FY14 demand
– Ridership, ticket revenue and passenger miles were provided at the route/month
level for FY14
– These can be provided at the city-pair level on request
• Adding new stations
– We will calculate the incremental demand from a proposed station addition
– Both incremental demand and demand transferring from current stations are
considered and reported
– The expected impact from the additional trip time is also included
• Change in travel time
• Changes in frequency
• Change in OTP
• Changes in schedule
Market Research and Analysis
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FY15 Demand Forecast Schedule
• We will develop the initial forecast for FY15 at the route and month
level in September 2013
• We will update the FY15 forecast in January 2014
• This revised forecast will be made available for FY15 negotiations in
early February 2014
Market Research and Analysis
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How Amtrak Market Research & Analysis Team Works with State Partners
1. Demand Forecasting
– We provide detailed forecasts for current and upcoming fiscal years
– We can forecast the expected changes in demand for proposed changes in service
– We can deliver more detailed forecasts and reports at cost
2. Market Research
– We provide ridership profiles for all state corridor routes. We are updating these this
summer. They include the following for our customers:
 Demographic: Who they are
 Behavioral: What they do
 Attitudinal: What they want
– We manage specific market research projects at cost. Projects include:
 Pre-campaign exploratory research
 Post-campaign measurement (ROI)
 Passenger and travel consumer segmentation
 On-board ridership profiles and attitudinal studies
 Qualitative research on service offering (current and proposed)
3. Reporting
Market Research and Analysis
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