BB05MSB502 – High-Resolution MET Modeling and Probabilistic
Weather for Atmospheric Transport and Dispersion (AT&D)
TITAN Corporation - DTRA01-03-D-0013, 0004
Objectives: 1) Perform research and development to extend, validate and
maintain existing weather uncertainty methods and work to make this
functionality suitable for ingest by SCIPUFF, as part of accurate high-resolution
meteorological (MET) predictions in DTRA’s operational atmospheric transport
and dispersion (AT&D) capability, and 2) perform research and development to
extend, validate and maintain the mesoscale model’s capabilities, including
providing to DTRA operational reachback support for troubleshooting and
configuration of DTRA MET modeling software and hardware.
Description of Effort: Determine sufficient ensemble members and appropriate
resolution to generate data fields with appropriate weather uncertainty using
existing models. A hierarchy of ensemble/uncertainty techniques will be studied,
so that a system can be designed that will “gracefully degrade” when less than
optimal data are available. The primary methods studied will include Bayesian
Model Averaging, Linear Covariance Calibration, and Deformation field
analysis. To further research, develop, extend, validate and maintain the
mesoscale model capabilities, including providing support for model
troubleshooting. Task will include transitioning of modeling at DTRA to use
MM5 and mesoscale FDDA, and investigate how MM5 may be made more
effective for providing data in the PBL and in urban areas.
Benefits of Proposed Technology: Recommendations for how to provide
the best information for the level of data available. System will be rapidly
relocatable and able to assimilate high resolution surface mesonet data and
other local asynoptic data sources which may be important for fine-scale
transport and dispersion within the boundary layer. Improved AT&D
accuracy using advanced ensemble methods to represent MET uncertainty.
Challenges: Developing the system to provide optimal performance for
meteorological and AT&D forecasts in the boundary layer. Expanding the
capacity of mesoscale models to incorporate new initialization data sets.
Investigate mesoscale improvement that could impact AT&D, and
representation of uncertainty in
Maturity of Technology: 6.2/6.3
Capability/Thrust Area: CB Warfare Hazard Environment Prediction
Major Goals/Milestones by Fiscal Year:
FY05: Real-time in-house Relocatable On-demand Forecast System (ROFS)
based on MM5 modeling system for supporting DTRA HPAC applications
and reachback support. Probabilistic weather research for AT&D.
FY06: Expanded ROFS capabilities including continuous data assimilation.
Realtime and operational reachback support to DTRA for MET modeling
(e.g., 2006 Winter Olympics). Customized MM5 and WRF-NMM outputs to
better support HPAC/SCIPUFF. Improved physical, temporal and numerical
coupling of MM5 and SCIPUFF. Continue ensemble work for AT&D.
FY07: Continued work on DTRA mesoscale modeling system, tighter coupling
to HPAC/SCIPUFF, probabilistic MET inputs and new MET model
parameters for SCIPUFF. Dipole Pride 26 with AT&D data to evaluate
effect of data assimilation and model resolution on SCIPUFF predictions.
PI contact info: David Stauffer, PSU, stauffer@meteo.psu.edu, 814.863.3932
Making the World Safer