INSTITUTE FOR SUSTAINABLE FUTURES
South African Energy Sector Jobs to
2030. Report for Greenpeace Africa.
Jay Rutovitz , 18th August 2010
ISF:RESEARCH
AND CONSULTANCY
THINK.
CHANGE.
DO
South African Energy Sector Jobs to 2030
 Introduction to ISF
 Overview of analysis
 The energy scenarios
 Methodology
 Employment results
Institute for Sustainable Futures (ISF)
 Research institute at University of Technology Sydney, set up
in 1996, with mission:
To create change towards a sustainable future
through independent, project-based research
ISF undertook analysis of the employment effects of the
Greenpeace International Energy [R]evolution:
 Working for the Climate, Greenpeace International, 2009,
and Energy sector jobs to 2030: a global analysis, Jay
Rutovitz and Alison Atherton, 2009
Greenpeace Africa asked us to analyse the employment
effects of the South African Energy [R]evolution.
Overview of our analysis
 ISF analysed SA Energy [R]evolution for Greenpeace
Africa, looking at three scenarios
 Business as usual case derived from IEA 2007 projection
 Energy [R]evolution scenario, which achieves 60% emissions
reduction by 2050
 Added in the Growth Without Constraints scenario (from Long Term
Mitigation Scenarios)
 We included one scenario with enhanced renewable
manufacturing, and export to the rest of Africa
 Electricity sector jobs only
 Direct jobs only (does not include jobs in accommodation,
catering, or from spending wages)
The energy scenarios: electricity generation to 2030
Coal
Gas, oil & diesel
Nuclear
Renewable
Efficiency
Electricity TWh/ year
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
IEA GWC [R]evolution IEA GWC [R]evolution IEA GWC [R]evolution IEA GWC [R]evolution
2010
2015
2020
2030
The energy scenarios: electricity generation to 2030
Electricity TWh/ year
Greenhouse
emissions 2030
compared to
2010
600
IEA REF
+ 47%
GWC
+ 48%
Energy
- 21%
[R]evolution
Renewable
electricity
in 2030
IEA REF
4%
GWC
1%
Energy
36%
[R]evolution
500
400
300
200
100
0
IEA GWC [R]evolution IEA GWC [R]evolution IEA GWC [R]evolution IEA GWC [R]evolution
2010
2015
2020
2030
Coal
Gas, oil & diesel
Nuclear
Renewable
Efficiency
Methodology - inputs
 Employment factors (jobs per MW)
UNCERTAINTY
 SA factors where possible, otherwise OECD factors +
multiplier.
 Adjustment for cost decline.
 Energy efficiency job factor (only for the reduction in
electricity consumption)
- Includes a proportion of energy efficiency achieved
by solar water heating
Employment factors – key inputs
 Construction jobs per megawatt (MW) capacity
increase
 Operations and maintenance (O&M) jobs per MW
installed
 Fuel jobs per gigawatt hour (GWh)
- For coal this means coal mining jobs per GWh
 South African factors for
– Coal mining
– Coal construction
– Coal, nuclear and hydro generation O&M
– Solar water heating
Employment factor - adjustment from OECD
 Labour intensity tends to be higher in
countries with lower GDP per capita.
 One method: multiply OECD factors by the
ratio of labour productivity* in SA to labour
productivity in the OECD. This would mean
multiplying by 4.6.
 We used the weighted average of the ratio
between local factors and OECD employment
factors, which is 2.15.
 Conservative approach.
* GDP per person employed
Jobs in the energy sector - results
JOBS
Efficiency
160,000
Efficiency - SWH
Ocean
Solar thermal
Geothermal
120,000
PV
80,000
Wind
Hydro
40,000
Biomass
Nuclear
0
2010
2020
2030
IEA Reference
2010
2020
2030
2010
2020
2030
Growth
Energy [R]evolution
Without Constraints
Oil & diesel
Gas
Coal
Coal exports
Jobs in the energy sector - results
JOBS
Compared to
IEA REF + 27%
GWC
+ 5%
Efficiency
160,000
Efficiency - SWH
6,700 jobs
31,900 jobs
Ocean
Solar thermal
Geothermal
120,000
PV
80,000
Wind
Hydro
40,000
Biomass
Nuclear
0
2010
2020
2030
IEA Reference
2010
2020
2030
2010
2020
2030
Growth
Energy [R]evolution
Without Constraints
Oil & diesel
Gas
Coal
Coal exports
What if we don’t include coal exports?
JOBS
Compared to
IEA REF + 27%
GWC
+ 5%
Efficiency
160,000
Efficiency - SWH
6,700 jobs
31,900 jobs
Ocean
Solar thermal
Geothermal
120,000
PV
80,000
Wind
Hydro
40,000
Biomass
Nuclear
0
2010
2020
2030
IEA Reference
2010
2020
2030
2010
2020
2030
Growth
Energy [R]evolution
Without Constraints
Oil & diesel
Gas
Coal
Coal exports
Jobs excluding coal exports
JOBS
Compared to
IEA REF + 49%
GWC + 18%
Efficiency
160,000
Efficiency - SWH
120,000
21,700 jobs
46,900 jobs
Ocean
Solar thermal
Geothermal
PV
80,000
Wind
Hydro
40,000
Biomass
Nuclear
0
2010
2020
2030
IEA Reference
2010
2020
2030
2010
2020
2030
Growth
Energy [R]evolution
Without Constraints
Oil & diesel
Gas
Coal
Coal exports
Renewable and total jobs at 2020*
IEA Reference
Total jobs 74,000
Renewable
7% of jobs
IEA Reference
Total jobs 74,000
Renewable 7% of jobs
Growth Without
Constraints
Total jobs 70,000
Renewable 3% of jobs
al
Growth Without
Constraints
Total jobs 70,000
Renewable 3% of jobs
* Excluding coal exports
Energy [R]evolution
Total jobs 113,000
Renewable
51% of jobs
Energy [R]evolution
Total
jobs[R]evolution
113,000
Energy
Energy
[R]evolution
Energy
[R]evolution
Renewable
51%113,000
of jobs
Total
jobs
Total
jobs
113,000
Total jobs 113,000
Renewable
51% of
jobs
Renewable
Renewable 51%
51% of
of jobs
jobs
Coal
Gas and oil
Nuclear
Coal
Coal
Coal
Fossil
CHPoil
Gas
and
Gas
and
Gas and oil
oil
Biomass
Nuclear
Nuclear
Nuclear
Hydro
Fossil
CHP
Fossil
Fossil CHP
CHP
Wind
Biomass
Biomass
Biomass
PVHydro
Hydro
Hydro
Geothermal
Wind
Wind
Wind
Solar
thermal
PV
PV
PV
Ocean
Geothermal
Geothermal
Geothermal
Renewable
CHP
Solar
thermal
Solar
thermal
Solar thermal
Ocean
Ocean
Ocean
Renewable
CHP
Renewable
Renewable CHP
CHP
Enhanced manufacturing scenario
 Standard analysis assumes 20% components
for all energy technologies are manufactured in
South Africa
 In enhanced scenario increased to 50% by 2030
(70% for solar water heating)
 Assumes South Africa exports components for
30% of the growth in renewable energy in the
rest of Africa by 2030
Energy [R]evolution with enhanced manufacturing –
jobs results
Compared to
JOBS
200,000
160,000
IEA REF + 56%
65,600
jobs
GWC + 28%
40,400
jobs
33,700
jobs
120,000
Manufacturing
exports
Construction and
manufacturing
Efficiency
Coal exports
80,000
Fuel
Operations and
maintenance
40,000
0
2010 2020 2030
2010 2020 2030
2010 2020 2030
IEA Reference
Growth Without
Constraints
Energy
[R]evolution
2010 2020 2030
Energy [R]evolution
enhanced manufacturing
Conclusion
 The Energy [R]evolution has the potential to create more
employment than business as usual.
 Substantial benefit compared to the IEA reference
scenario, net increase of 78,000 jobs by 2030 (46,000 in
the IEA Reference).
 Even if SA does not take action to reduce greenhouse
gases, coal exports are vulnerable to action elsewhere.
 Developing a strong renewable sector ‘future proofs’ SA
economy; enhanced renewable scenario 56% compared
to business as usual.
 South Africa needs to decide whether to be an importer
or an exporter of renewable technology in coming
decades.