Transitioning space weather models
to operations at the UK Met Office
Suzy Bingham, David Jackson, Catherine Burnett and Mark Gibbs
Met Office, UK
ESWW, Thurs. 20th Nov. 2014
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Table of Contents
• Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)
• Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre (MOSWOC)
• Research models to operations: process & challenges
• Using other NWP methods for space weather
• Summary
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The Met Office
Numerical weather prediction
•
NWP: when current weather observations are assimilated into numerical
computer models & processed using mathematical equations to generate a
forecast of the future state of the weather.
•
Met Office has great experience in NWP methods which can be used for
space weather forecasting.
Transfer NWP methods for terrestrial weather, to space weather
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NWP building blocks
Building blocks of NWP & some experiences to build upon:
• OBSERVATIONS: forecasts depend on knowledge of the current state of the
environment. (1) Research in instruments & obs., (2) real-time acquisition of
obs., (3) implementation of research instruments to operational use.
• DATA ASSIMILATION: an accurate representation of the initial state of the
environment is vital so assimilate latest obs. (1) Fast comms required to gather
obs., (2) expense of computational process.
• PREDICTION: use of a mathematical model to generate a forecast. (1) Use of
approximations to evaluate equations, (2) model validation.
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NWP building blocks
• UNCERTAINTY/ENSEMBLES: creation of multiple versions of a forecast
from different initial states to give info on uncertainty of forecast. (1) Small
errors can quickly grow to large, (2) resulting variation gives indication of
confidence in forecast.
• RISK ASSESSMENT & COMMUNICATION: understand risks of impacts of
the forecast & communicate to users. (1) If a large impact is forecast, a group
of expert forecasters/scientist/users can be involved in decision making, (2)
use of different communication methods (emails, emergency response
meetings).
• VERIFICATION: to continually improve operational systems. (1) Use metrics
to show how well the model predicts/ value added by forecaster, (2) work
within WMO guidelines.
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Met Office Space Weather
Operations Centre (MOSWOC)
•
Delivers space weather alerts, warnings & forecasts 24/7. Public forecasts &
sector specific forecasts are available:
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/publicsector/emergencies/space-weather
•
Sits within terrestrial weather ops centre.
•
Provides a platform for running space weather models operationally.
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MOSWOC
Operational system at MOSWOC
•
‘Operational’ means an automated end-to-end system with:
• a real-time observations stream,
• model predictions,
• product dissemination &
• quality control monitoring.
•
Models in an operational system are: (1) rigorously tested, (2) imbedded into a
robust infrastructure & (3) supported 24/7.
•
Reasons to run models operationally:
• to provide unfailing & timely model output to forecasters,
• to enable a research model to be run with 24/7 support (reliably),
• to run model after a project has been completed,
• resilience/backup to another centre,
• one place of focus for information.
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Research models to operations:
the models
Operational:
• WSA-Enlil, solar wind speed
• REFM, Relativistic Electron Forecasting Model,
daily electron fluence forecast at GEO orbit.
• D-RAP, D Region Absorption Predictions Model,
global map of prediction of radio propagation
conditions.
REFM
(SWPC)
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Enlil (D. Odstrcil)
D-RAP
(SWPC)
Research models to operations:
the models
Semi- operational:
• Multi Instrument Data Analysis System, Bath University, Total Electron Content.
• SPACECAST, British Antarctic Survey/EU project, 0-3hr forecast of >2MeV
electron flux.
MIDAS
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SPACECAST
Research models to operations:
the process
1. Run research model
on desktop PC.
2. Run revised model
on development
environment.
3. Run model on
operational suite and
view output on
forecaster webpages.
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• Review licence and terms of use of model and input data.
• Understand model processes, input data and output data.
• Rewrite in Met Office standard language if necessary.
• Adapt code to Linux platform if written in Windows.
• Adapt code to run using Met Office database input if
necessary.
• Change model area covered e.g. to Europe, depending on
customer requirements.
• Change cadence to meet customer requirements, e.g.
REFM changed to 3hours when originally ran daily.
• FTP input files through firewall.
• Write ROSE script to auto-run model on operational suite.
• Test model doesn’t affect other processes on IBM.
• Model resolution can depend upon speed/expense on IBM.
• Some commands may need to be changed to run on IBM.
• Adapt visualisation code to Met Office style.
• Verify output.
• Complete Met Office documentation to allow model to run on
operational suite.
Operational process
Process to follow to run a model or service operationally in the Met Office.
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Research models to operations:
output
Once a model is running operationally,
output is viewed on internal Met Office
webpages for forecaster use.
Forecasts are then provided on the external
webpages for public/sector specific use.
MO internal webpages: WSA-Enlil & REFM
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External webpage:
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public
sector/emergencies/spaceweather
Further work following NWP
methods
•
Note: need to understand space weather needs & not just use off the shelf
NWP solution.
•
Ongoing: implementing models operationally.
•
WSA-Enlil ensemble forecasting – research stage.
•
Verification – initial stages. Evaluation of models & forecasts to check they
meet & continue to meet requirements.
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Proposal for “Carrington” – a UK
Space Weather Mission
• A Sun-Earth Sentinel at L5.
• First Operational Space Weather mission – addresses MOSWOC requirements.
• High technology readiness, low risk, low cost.
• High UK heritage: instruments developed by UK scientists.
• Fast transfer to L5 for a 10-year mission.
• 24/7 operations, 100% coverage, continuous data.
• Excellent research output.
• UKMO, UK Cabinet office, protects UK infrastructure hence growth.
• Very large potential for UK industry and UK science to lead the field.
• Excellent opportunity for UK/US bilateral.
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Summary
•
Met Office has built upon its experience using NWP methods, for transitioning
space weather models to operations.
• Challenges which arise
when implementing models
operationally include: rewriting code & ftping input
data through firewalls.
• Continue to transition
research models to
operations.
• Continue to use NWP
methods for space weather
forecasting.
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Questions and answers
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Enlil model
•
Purpose: Models solar wind speed &
density from Sun to Earth. Predicts CME
arrival times at Earth, leading to onset of
potential geomagnetic disturbances
causing problems in radio comms, GPS
navigation, etc.
•
Developer: D. Odstrcil
•
Input: Output from WSA. WSA uses solar
magnetograms to predict background solar
wind speed & IMF providing inner boundary
conditions for Enlil (we currently use NOAA
files).
•
Output: Run every 2hrs to produce
animation of forecast of solar wind at Earth,
STEREO A & B, for next few days.
•
Cadence: 1 GONG synoptic map/hr
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CME analysis tools
•
Purpose: Tool to allow calculation of
CME parameters for input into Enlil.
Allows user to model evolution of CME
outwards from Sun to estimate CME path
& arrival time at Earth.
•
Developer: NASA (StereoCAT) & NOAA
(CAT)
•
Input: use STEREO A & B & LASCO
images. Fit CME images with a cone
over a period of time. Uses triangulation
from different viewpoints of spacecraft.
•
Output: CME parameters (origin,
direction, speed, half-width). Input into
Enlil to predict CME arrival at Earth.
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SPACECAST
•
Purpose: Solar activity triggers bursts of energetic
particles. High energy particles can damage satellites &
are hazard to manned spaceflight & aviation. Daily
fluence is related to deep dielectric charging in spacecraft.
SPACECAST predicts high energy electron fluxes/fluence
at geostationary orbit (GOES orbit), Galileo/GPS orbit &
Slot region orbit.
•
Developer: BAS/EU project
•
Input: FTP files from BAS model (flux at fixed energies
for a range of L* & 2MeV differential flux at a range of
pitch-angles & L*)
•
Output: 0-3hr forecast of >2MeV electron flux &
associated risk index at different orbits. Plot of electron
fluence compared with that measured by GOES satellite.
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REFM
•
Purpose: Relativistic Electron Forecast Model. Predicts daily build up of electron flux for
next 3 days at geosynchronous orbit. Allows satellite operators to e.g. plan maintenance,
implement protection measures to minimise charging of satellite components.
•
Developer: NOAA SWPC
•
Input: ACE solar wind speed, GOES electron flux data (>2MeV), GOES particle flux data
(>30MeV).
•
Output: >2MeV electron fluence at GSO orbit. 1-3 day forecast produced once a day.
•
Future: Can also be run using Enlil solar wind speed to give 8 day forecast.
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MIDAS
•
Purpose: Multi-Instrument Data
Analysis System. Images ionospheric
activity in real-time. Takes delay in
GPS signal to produce European
region map of Total Electron Content
(TEC) nowcast.
•
Developer: Bath University
•
Input: Measurements from ground- &
spaced-based GPS receivers, & point
estimates of local electron density.
•
Output: TEC map over Europe every
15mins
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D-RAP
•
Purpose: D-Region Absorption Prediction (in ionosphere, 50-90km). Provides real-time
data of the degradation of HF (3-30MHz) radio propagation conditions (due to solar X-ray
flares & solar radiation storms). Provides HF degradation data at all latitudes on sunlit
side of Earth.
•
Developer: NOAA SWPC
•
Input: GOES X-ray flux (1min) & proton flux (5min), estimated 3hr Kp, L-values from
geomagnetic model
• Output: Real-time
predictions of the global
absorption conditions of the Dregion, every 1 min.
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