Mapping the Northern Rivers
Housing Market to 2036
Dr Tony Gilmour
Northern Rivers Housing Forum
Lismore: 14 September 2011
Presentation Overview
• Demographic changes
• Regional housing supply/demand and affordability issues
• Social impacts of housing market challenges
Northern Rivers Housing Market
• Study area
 Focus on 7 council areas of the Northern Rivers Housing Forum
 6 in ‘Far North Coast’ NSW Planning region
 No NSW regional planning authority
• Housing market characteristics:
 Series of distinct housing sub-markets
 Dispersed population, mainly living in villages and smaller towns
 Greatest growth in coastal areas
1
Demographic Changes
Demographic Trends
• Population drivers:
 Impact from rapid growth of
South East Queensland
 Pacific Coast Highway Upgrade
 Sea- and tree- change migration
 By 2036 population +39%
(Sydney 40%, Brisbane +64%)
• Trends:
 Ageing population - over 65s
will double by 2026 to 32%
 Fewer young people
2001-2005
Population Increase, 2001-2036
140,000
120,000
100,000
Ballina
Byron
80,000
Kyogle
Lismore
60,000
Richmond Valley
Tweed
40,000
Clarence Valley
20,000
0
1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036
Population Change, 2001-2036
14%
12%
10%
Ballina
8%
Byron
Kyogle
6%
Lismore
4%
Richmond Valley
Tweed
2%
Clarence Valley
0%
-2%
-4%
2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036
2
Housing Supply, Demand
and Affordability
2036.
Table 6: Housing demand to 2036
Source: NSW Government (2006, 2009b) for first five rows
Housing Demand and Supply
• Housing demand forecast based on growing population and reducing
occupancy. NSW Government estimate need 70,000 dwellings by 2036
• Housing supply hard to estimate. NSW Government consider 51,000
possible, though UDIA and MacroPlan challenge these numbers,
especially in Tweed and Byron ‘hot spots’
• Nationwide, supply not keeping pace with demand. Estimated 90,000
dwellings pa shortfall. This is the main driver of affordability problems
Far North Coast- Housing Demand
Estimated population, 2036
315,600
Dwelling occupancy
1.91
Properties required, 2036
165,000
Current housing stock
95,000
New dwellings required 2036
70,000
Sensitivity analysis on new dwellings required
Population in 2036 +5%
79,000
Occupancy rates -5%
79,000
Both of the above
88,000
Far North Coast- Housing supply
Ballina
Byron
Kyogle
Lismore
Richmond Valley
Tweed
New dwellings supplied by 2036
8,400
2,600
3,000
8,000
9,900
19,100
51,000
Housing Affordability
• Relative lack of some higher income jobs
• Far lower median incomes than Sydney
or NSW, esp. Kyogle and Clarence Valley
• Rents lower than Sydney and NSW,
though less gap in sales prices
• High levels of households in rental
stress. Byron, Tweed and Balina higher
than Sydney
• Richmond and Kyogle are relatively
affordable for renters and purchasers
• Moderate income households (80-120%
levels) also in housing stress - in Byron
Shire 49% renters; 37% purchasers
Rental prices
450
400
Ballina
350
Byron
Clarence Valley
300
Kyogle
Lismore
250
Richmond Valley
Tweed
200
Sydney SD
150
NSW
100
Dec-08
Weekly rents in $
Jun-09
Dec-09
Jun-10
Dec-10
Property Purchase Prices
550,000
500,000
Ballina
450,000
Byron
Clarence Valley
400,000
Kyogle
Lismore
350,000
Richmond Valley
Tweed
300,000
Sydney SD
250,000
NSW
200,000
Jun-09
Dec-09
Jun-10
Dec-10
Affordability and Housing Stock
• Built form dominated by detached houses
• Higher owner occupation than in Sydney or across NSW
• Social housing rental low, especially in certain council areas
• Strong presence of community housing - mainly North Coast
Community Housing (835 units). Housing NSW down to 2,470 units
after estate stock transfer in Byron of over 200 units
• Low impact from National Rental Affordability Scheme (NRAS)
Area
Ballina
Byron
Kyogle
Lismore
Richmond Valley
Tweed
Clarence Valley
Sydney SD
NSW
Owner occupied
Social rental
Private rental
%
64.9
59.2
73.1
65.4
67.2
66.3
70.5
61.1
63.4
%
4.5
1.9
2.5
4.2
4.6
3.0
3.3
5.1
5.0
%
24.2
27.9
18.5
24.4
21.8
23.0
20.5
33.8
31.6
Alternative Dwellings
• Caravan parks and holiday villages
a traditional source of affordable
housing, especially in coastal areas
• Competition for land driven by sea
change migration and tourism
• Loss of alternative dwellings a
major issue (420 sites lost 20012004 in region: research by
Caroline Squires)
3
Social Impacts
Homelessness
• Chart shows ‘primary’ homeless typically rough sleepers and those
in improvised dwellings
• Highest concentrations of homeless
population are in areas in the
region with greatest housing stress
• 51% of the regions entire homeless
population are in Tweed Heads
• In 2006 region had 3% of NSW
population by 6% of homeless
Social Needs
• SEIFA measure of social
disadvantage used by ABS (income,
education, housing, unemployment)
• Several areas in region in top 40%
of NSW disadvantage - especially in
Lismore and Ballina council areas
• Challenges for human service
provision across the region
• Isolated areas of disadvantage
away from jobs and transport
• Rural isolation, especially in areas
of declining population
Mapping the Northern Rivers
Housing Market to 2036
Dr Tony Gilmour
tony@elton.com.au
www.tonygilmour.com