Community Climate
Adaptation Planning
Durham Region’s
Emergent Approach
Brian Kelly, Manager of Sustainability,
Region of Durham
Upwind-Downwind Conference 2014
February 24, 2014
Outline
1.
Background and Context.
2.
CCAP Process
3.
Climate Projections by SENES Consultants
4.
An Emergent Process
5.
Next steps
Objectives:
•
To outline Durham Region’s emerging approach to Community Climate
Adaptation planning
•
To contrast our approach to that of others
•
To offer learnings from our experiences to date
DRRCC Mandate
DRRCC Goal:

“To position the Region of Durham as a leader in addressing climate
change issues by preparing and recommending a comprehensive
strategy with detailed actions that can be undertaken across the
Region to address climate change.”
DRRCC Mandate:

“ outreach/advocacy: encouraging [stakeholders]to address climate
change in their respective practices and operations”
Adaptation Sub-Committee mandate is to identify:

projected future climate & weather conditions;

key vulnerabilities, impacts & management strategies to safeguard
infrastructure;

economic impacts (and opportunities);

how a more resilient region can attract new business.
Local Action Plan Process
Background: LAP Phase 1 Report
• Vision: “Durham Region is a carbon neutral,
sustainable, prosperous and resilient
community with a high quality of life.”
• Community Targets:
5% reduction in GHG emissions by 2015
20% reduction in GHG emissions by 2020
80% reduction in GHG emissions by 2050
(absolute targets, measured against 2007 baseline emissions)
• Developed during 2010 based on
stakeholder input over summer
• Adopted by Regional Council on March
9, 2011
Phase 2 Progress Report
• Resulted from Design Charette
• Progress Report released July 29/11
• Identified 23 Action Plan Concepts
(APCs)
• Stakeholder and public review for 60
days
• Consolidated to 17 APCs + an 18th
education APC
• Presentations to business
stakeholders over fall of 2011
• Early approval of Durham Partners in
Project Green (DPPG) – Dec. 14/11
Community Local Action Plan
• Rationale for Local Action
• Context and Background:
–
–
–
–
–
•
•
•
•
•
Emissions Inventory
Vision
Mission
Targets
Process
18 Potential Programs (one approved to date)
Impacts and Co-Benefits
Implementation Strategies
Adaptation
Next Steps
Potential Programs in the LAP
• Durham Partners in Project
Green*
• Comprehensive Residential
Retrofit
• Green Affordable Housing
• Durham Green Building
Guideline
• Smart Grid Initiative*
• Offshore Wind Power
Generation
• Durham Mini-Deep Lake
Water Cooling
• Durham Biofuels Program
• Bio-Methane Production and
Use
• Local Food Hub
• Urban Agriculture Program
• Farm-Friendly Regulations
• Durham Five Million Trees
• Active Transportation and
Transit*
• Durham Freecycle Program
• Durham Green Procurement
Guideline
• Community Climate Fund
• Climate Education Program
DO THE MATH
• 2°C : The maximum global rise in average temperature
that still gives us a 50% probability of avoiding climate destabilization
Pre-industrial base: 280 ppm of CO2
Now:
+0.8°C = 396 ppm
By 2030: +2°C = 450 ppm … 16 years left
By 2100: +4-6°C = 750-1,200 ppm
• 565 gigatons: CO2 we can add before we reach 450 ppm.
• 2,795 gigatons: CO2 in proven fossil fuel reserves.
5 X what we can add
Therefore 80% of the proven reserves must stay in the
ground; “stranded asset” risk for fossil fuel companies.
350.org
http://math.350.org/
What is Climate Adaptation?
• Climate mitigation is protecting nature from us;
climate adaptation is protecting us from nature.
• The goal of adaptation is to prepare, protect
and safeguard us and our infrastructure.
• Some adaptation measures can be both
adaptation and mitigation (e.g. tree planting,
white roofs, green roofs).
• No cynicism allowed (as in: “Well, I won’t be
around for that…..”)
Adaptation Planning Process
Options:
1. Follow the ICLEI Process
2. Follow the Toronto process (e.g. WeatherWise
Partnership)
3. Develop a hybrid process for Durham
Our motto: “Imitation is the highest form of
flattery.”
ICLEI Adaptation Process
CCAP Process
• Future Climate Parameters (SENES Study) : What are the
climate conditions we are planning for?
• Stakeholder Engagement: Who are the key
stakeholders and what are their initial thoughts?
• Expert Task Forces (Feb, March & April): What are the
vulnerabilities, risks and responsive actions?
• Design Charette (May): How do the various streams
integrate into one plan with proposed programs?
• Proposed CCAP (DRRCC, Sept. 12)
• Recommended CCAP (Regional Council, Oct. 8/14) What is
the plan and the proposed programs?
Future Climate Projections
SENES Consultants was commissioned to project
future climate and extremes for Durham region
(based on extensive study done for Toronto in 2011)
Remember our motto: “Imitation is the highest form of
flattery.”
Basis for confidence in projections include:

The model is based on established scientific principals.

Model is able to reproduce observed changes in climate.

The model resolution is very high (1 km x 1 km cells).

The model projects both averages and extremes.
Projections Model (SENES)
Report of climate and extreme weather projections for timeframe 20402049 compared to 2000-2009.

Model provides projections not predictions (consistent with IPCC) – because
it is not possible to know what future emissions of GHG will actually be.

Model based on IPCC emissions scenario A1B.
The scope of the SENES study is:

all eight local municipalities in the Region of Durham: Ajax, Brock (Beaverton),
Clarington (Bowmanville), Oshawa, Pickering, Scugog (Port Perry), Uxbridge
(Town of Uxbridge), Whitby

parameters of temperature & precipitation with surrogates for lightning and
combined parameters for tornadoes.

both climate means and weather extremes were included.
Future Period: 2040-2049 Compared to 2000-2009
The following summarizes the projected climate changes for the proxy
Whitby site for the future period compared with the base period:
Less snow and more rain in winter - about 16% more precipitation (snow
and rainfall) overall.

50% increase in one day maximum rainfall

40% decline in one day maximum snow

100% increase in number of days of rain greater than 25 mm

80% reduction in the number of days with snow more than 5 cm

146% more rain and 61% less snow in January

217% more rain and 75% less snow in February
Rainstorm events will be more extreme

15% increase in the potential for violent storms

53% increase in the potential for tornadoes

74% more rain in July

79% more rain in August
Temperature Changes - Whitby

average annual temperatures increase of 4.0oC

average winter temperatures increase by 5.8oC

average summer temperatures increase by 2.6oC

extreme daily minimum temperature "becomes less cold"
by 12oC

extreme daily maximum temperature "becomes warmer"
by 7.1oC
Heat & Humidity – Duration and Frequency

Higher temperatures in summer (2000 - 2009 to
2040 -2049)
 tmax >30°C: 3 days/year to 16.8 days/year, greatest



More frequent heat waves (2000-2009 to 2040-2049)



increase Uxbridge, Port Perry and Beaverton 4.8 days
to 25.8 days)
T max >35°C: 0 days/year to 1-4 days/year
Tmax > 40°C: 0 days/year, to 0.14 days/year
> 30°C more than 2 days : 0.025 events/year to 3.9
events/year (greatest increase in Uxbridge, Port Perry
and Beaverton of average 7.5 events/year)
> 40°C more than 2 days : 0 events/year 2000-2009 to
0.1 events/year 2040-2049 (Uxbridge only 0.1 average)
Humidex


> than 40°C eq. (great discomfort) projected increase
from 3 to 17 events/year.
greater than ‘dangerous’ level (45°C eq.) - 0 to 3.2
events/year (greatest potential being in Uxbridge, Port
Perry, Beaverton).
High Level Summary of Climate Projections Precipitation

Less snow and more rain.

Rain storm events more frequent and severe
(Whitby 15% increase in potential for violent
storms).

Increase number of days of heavy rain (>50mm
in 6 hours with temp > 1°C) from 1.5
events/year 2000-2009 to 5.3 events/year
2040-2049 (with the greatest increase
occurring in Port Perry 0.9 /year to 9 /year).

Ice storms not frequent today and in 2040-49
projected to drop to almost zero.

Projected 45% increase in days with high
potential for lightning - across Durham.
High Level Summary of Climate Projections - Tornadoes

Increased potential for tornadoes



53% increase in Whitby (days/10 years) – EHI >=1; 150 to 172 days; EHI >=2; 37 to 54 days,
EHI >=3; 9 to 16 days; EHI >=4; 3 to 5 days; EHI >=5; 0 to 4 days)
23% increase across Durham – Uxbridge, Port Perry, and Beaverton continuing to be most
susceptible
EHI of 1 represents supercell potential; 1-5 represents F2/F3 potential, EHI of 5+
represents F4/5 potential (Goderich was an F3);
The Saturn Model of Stakeholders
Stakeholder Meetings to Date
• All municipalities (with exception of Brock Township)
• All five Conservation Authorities
• Chambers of Commerce and Boards of Trade
• Electrical distribution utilities
• Others
• To come: DEAC, DAAC, local councils
Expert Task Forces
Proposed Task Forces
• Flooding
• Heat Events
• Electricity Supply
• Transportation/Roads
• Natural Environment*
• Buildings*
• Telecom (on hold)
• Food Supply (on hold)
Proposed Schedule
• Joint kickoff meeting –
Feb. 21
• Task Forces to meet
March, April & May
• Design Charette – Late
May
The Durham Differences
•
•
•
•
•
•
Community plan in a 2-tier regional municipality
Compressed schedule (1 year)
Started with Climate Projections (SENES study)
Then engaged stakeholders using projections
Create Expert Task Forces among stakeholders
Ask stakeholders to identify the implications and
possible responses
• Integrate Task Force streams in a Design Charette
• Take a “plan” to this Council
Watch this space!
Questions and Discussion