PERFORMANCE OF INDONESIAN
AGRICULTURE AFTER 2004
Facts
• Labor worked in agriculture decreased from
43.9% (2005) to 36.5% (2011)
• GDP of agriculture grew at 3.07% from 2010 to
2011
• Agriculture sector contributed 0.5% of total
economic growth in 1st and 2nd quarters 2012. In
2011 it was 0.4% at the same period.
1. DOMESTIC PRODUCTION
Farmer’s Terms of Trade (NTP), 2005-2009
2005
NTP
2006
93.5
2007
95.7
2008
100
2009
98.9
100.8
Domestic Investment, 2005-2009, Rp billion
2005
Investment
3,178.9
2006
3,558.6
2007
3,674.0
2008
1,235.0
2009
1,392.4
Foreign Investment, 2005-2009, US $ million
2005
Investment
224.3
2006
370.7
2007
264.8
2008
151.9
2009
37.9
Source: Bappenas, 2011
Production of Paddy, 2005-2009, million T
2005
Paddy
2006
54.15
2007
54.45
2008
57.16
2009
60.33
63.84
Growth of 3.4%
Production of Maize, 2005-2009, million T
2005
Investment
2006
12.5
2007
11.6
2008
13.3
2009
16.3
17.6
Growth of 9.9%
Production of Soybean, 2005-2009, million T
2005
Investment
2006
808
2007
748
2008
593
2009
776
966
Growth of 0.9%
Source: Bappenas, 2011
Production of CPO, 2005-2009, million T
2005
CPO
2006
11.9
2007
17.4
2008
17.7
2009
18.1
19.4
Growth of 8.9%
Production of Rubber, 2005-2009, million T
2005
Rubber
2006
2.3
2007
2.6
2008
2.8
2009
2.9
3.0
Growth of 1.6%
Production of Cocoa, 2005-2009, million T
2005
Cocoa
2006
0.75
2007
0.77
2008
0.74
2009
0.79
0.85
Growth of 2.2%
Source: Bappenas, 2011
Production of Banana, 2005-2009, million T
2005
CPO
2006
5.2
2007
5.0
2008
5.4
2009
6.0
6.1
Growth of 5.2%
Production of Oranges, 2005-2009, million T
2005
Rubber
2006
2.2
2007
2.5
2008
2.6
2009
2.5
2.5
Growth of 4.1%
Production of Shallot, 2005-2009, million T
2005
Cocoa
2006
0.73
2007
0.79
2008
0.80
2009
0.85
0.86
Growth of 5.2%
Source: Bappenas, 2011
Agric Balance of Trade, 2005-2009, US $
2005
Export
Import
Balance
Export
Import
Balance
Export
Import
Balance
Export
Import
Balance
Export
Import
Balance
2006
2007
2008
Food Crop (cereals and cassava)
286,744
264,155
289,049
348,914
2,115,140
2,568,453
2,729,147
3,526,961
-1,828,396
-2,304,299
-2,440,098
-3,178,047
Horticulture (fruits and vegetables)
227,974
238,063
254,765
432,727
367,425
527,415
795,846
909,669
-139,451
-289,352
-541,081
-476,942
Estate Crop (palm oil, rubber, cocoa, coconut, coffee, tea)
10,673,186
13,972,064
19,948,923
27,369,363
1,532,520
1,675,067
3,379,875
4,535,918
9,140,666
12,296,997
16,569,048
22,833,445
Livestock (meat, chicken, dairy products)
396,526
388,939
748,531
1,148,170
1,532,520
1,675,067
3,379,875
4,535,918
-1,135,994
-1,286,128
-2,631,344
-3,387,748
Agriculture Sector
11,584,429
14,863,221
21,241,268
29,299,174
5,136,916
5,961,331
8,601,327
11,324,767
6,447,513
8,901,890
12,639,941
17,974,407
2009
321,280
2,737,862
-2,416,582
378,627
1,063,120
-684,493
21,581,670
3,949,191
17,632,479
754,914
3,949,191
-3,194,277
23,036,491
9,882,973
13,153,518
2. INTERNATIONAL MARKET
Export Product Dynamics (EPD)
Market
Attractiveness
(growth)
Strength of Business (market share)
Source: Esterhuizen, 2006
Estate Crops
EPD, 2005-2010
EPD, 2005-2010
Destination
Cashew nuts
Coffee
Tea
Pepper
USA
Rising Star
Rising Star
Lost
Opportunity
Rising Star
EU
Rising Star
Rising Star
Lost
Opportunity
Rising Star
China
Rising Star
Rising Star
Rising Star
Rising Star
SAU
Lost
Opportunity
Lost
Opportunity
Rising Star
Lost
Opportunity
Horticulture
EPD, EPD, 2005-2010
Destination
EPD, EPD, 2005-2010
Mangoes,
Mangoesteen
Banana
Cinnamon
Ginger
USA
Lost
Opportunity
Lost
Opportunity
Rising Star
Rising Star
EU
Lost
Opportunity
Lost
Opportunity
Lost
Opportunity
Lost
Opportunity
China
Rising Star
Lost
Opportunity
NA
NA
SAU
Lost
Opportunity
Lost
Opportunity
Lost
Opportunity
Rising Star
Low Value Addition
Surveys in some international markets
(China, Mid East, Europe, US)
show that most of processing tropical
products come from Philippines and Thailand
In domestic market, its very easy to find some
processing products (canning) in supermarket
Dried fruits
Banana
Pineapple
Rambutan
and Jackfruits
Young
Bamboo
Paria
White pepper powder is
imported form India
Cinnamon stick is
imported from India
Answer
How to shift
Agribusiness curve to
be more leptocurtic:
 Increase quantity
 Ensure Continuity
 Reduce diversity of
quality
Note: in 2009, Indonesia’s
pineapple was banned by Japan
because of inability to satisfy
minimum quota of 1,000 T
Answer
Impact of PRODUCTIVITY Increase
Variable
BOT
GDP
Change (%)
3,85
0,91
Export
10,20
Import
-5,72
CPI
-6,21
Answer
Lesson Learn
Future Challenge:
To satisfy the demand for food until 2050, production must
increase at least 1% per year. 80% of such increase comes
from productivity increase.
1. India: government support on credit, irrigation and
production inputs.
2. Vietnam: irrigation, pests and diseases brigade and
mechanization (rendement 70%).
3. Indonesia: irrigation, Research and development,
extension.
Terima Kasih
FACULTY OF ECONOMICS AND MANAGEMENT IPB
Jl. KAMPER KAMPUS DARMAGA BOGOR 16680
PH: 0251-8626520, FAX: 0251-8626631
Website : http://www.fem.ipb.ac.id