Why the UK needs a new hub airport for London
Presentation to the West London Sub Regional Transport Panel
16 May 2013
Commissioner’s Delivery Unit
Commissioner’s Delivery Unit
The Problem
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Aviation is hugely important to the UK economy
Hub airport capacity aggregates passengers and delivers global connectivity
Heathrow, the UK's hub airport, is full and can't meet the UK's needs
Demand is forecast to double by 2050
"Heathrow is poorly connected to emerging markets" Heathrow
spokesperson
Heathrow already accounts for 28% of people in Europe blighted by
signficant disturbance from airports
A 3rd runway at Heathrow is not a long-term solution
The UK needs an alternative hub airport that provides greater connectivity
without dire consequences for hundreds of thousands of people
The issue is urgent: the Uk is already losing significant trade to European
hub airports
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Aviation connectivity is key
• Aviation connectivity has been and remains key to economic prosperity
– Vital for trade, inward investment
– A more multi-polar global economy means access to a wider range of destinations
to secure that propserity
Forecast annual traffic growth to/from Europe (%), 2011-31
• An effective hub airport is essential for that aviation connectivity…
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Why is a hub important?
• A hub supports routes and frequencies that would otherwise not be viable
• BA flights from Heathrow-New York JFK: 7½ flights per day (in 2007)
– 39% of passengers are transferring at Heathrow – i.e. two planes' worth
• 39 routes out of Heathrow have >50% transfer traffic
– including Phoenix, Calgary, Mexico City, Hyderabad, Cape Town
• A hub airport requires sufficient catchment area
– population and economic profile  critical mass of flights
– Heathrow accounts for 40% of all UK scheduled traffic…
…but 80% of all UK direct scheduled longhaul traffic
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Heathrow is falling behind…
• Heathrow lacks the runway capacity
Hub Airport
Runways
Utilisation
Destinations 1992
Destinations 2012
London Heathrow
2
98.5%
160
156
Paris CDG
4
73.5%
154
231
Frankfurt
4
74.5%
192
271
Amsterdam
6
70.0%
167
258
• Increased delays and very poor resilience in the face of disruption
• Severely constrains number of destinations served
– Every slot has an opportunity cost (>£1m)
– Established longhaul routes prioritised…
– …at expense of less developed routes – including to vital emerging markets
• Limited access for freighter services
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Failing connectivity: UK-China
Weekly direct frequencies to Mainland China
Weekly frequencies
Paris CDG
69
Frankfurt
55
Amsterdam
44
London LHR
35
Munich
21
Helsinki
18
Destinations served
Amsterdam
6
Frankfurt
5
Paris CDG
4
London LHR
3
Helsinki
3
Munich
2
21 Frankfurt
21 Paris CDG
14 London LHR
14 Amsterdam
12 Munich
7 Helsinki
Shenyang
Beijing
Qingdao
3 Frankfurt
4 Amsterdam
Chengdu
4 Frankfurt
Nanjing
4 Frankfurt
Shanghai
Wuhan
3 Paris
4 Helsinki
Chongqing
Hangzhou
33 Paris CDG
28 Frankfurt
18 London LHR
12 Amsterdam
7 Munich
7 Helsinki
4 Amsterdam
12 Paris CDG
7 Amsterdam
3 London LHR
Guangzhou
Xiamen
3 Amsterdam
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The need for a new London hub
The scale of the challenge – the Government’s Forecasts
London Heathrow demand forecasts
DfT 2011, ‘capacity unconstrained
Passenger
s
(mppa)
Absolute maximum
capacity of Heathrow
Air traffic
movements / yr
Current throughput
at Heathrow
Commissioner’s Delivery Unit
The problems with Heathow
Heathrow is unsuitable for further
expansion
• Heathrow is located within a densely
populated area and has flight paths over
London.
• 28 per cent of all people in Europe affected
by aircraft noise are those affected by
Heathrow – more than 700,000 people
• After central London, Heathrow is the second
major hot spot for poor air quality in London
particularly with nitrogen dioxide
• Runways are operating at 99% of their
capacity
• 60% of arriving aircraft are held in stacks,
causing delays
• Flight times from Amsterdam and Paris CDG
have increased by 50%
• Adverse weather e.g. snow causes delay and
misery for thousands of passengers because
of lack of spare capacity
Commissioner’s Delivery Unit
Meeting the Uk's Aviation Challenge
Heathrow expansion is not the answer
• A 3rd runway would not deliver the capacity needed to meet long
term forecasts – the level of capacity needed cannot be provided
at Heathrow
• The environmental impacts of further expansion at Heathrow
would be unacceptable
• There would still be a need to develop a long term solution
Commissioner’s Delivery Unit
Meeting the Uk's Aviation Challenge
Options to be considered
• A new hub airport for London – either in a new location to the east of
London or at an existing airport site (Stansted)
• If the necessary Government policy framework is put in place, a new
airport could be delivered in a similar timescale to a third runway
• A new hub airport could be located and planned to minimise
environmental impacts and enable the UK to fully meet its economic
potential
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Criteria for new airport capacity
• Economic
– Supporting growth and regeneration; area with necessary resource capacity
• Airport infrastructure
– Sufficient runway/terminal capacity; optimised airport facilities
• Airspace
– Meets operational and safety-related requirements
• Surface Access
– Fast, direct road and rail access to key locations: London & Southeast, UK, Europe
• Environmental
– Minimises local impacts: noise, air quality, communities, wildlife/biodiversity
• Deliverability
– Can address planning and construction risk; value for money
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The Mayor's emerging view
Stansted
Outer Thames
Estuary
Inner Thames Estuary
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What happens to Heathrow?
Several options, including:
• Reduced size airport
• Full or partial re-development of the site
– Housing/more commercial land uses
• Mayor will carefully appraise the relative merits of these options
• This will be covered in more detail in our response to the Airports
Commission in July
Armageddon?
No!
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What to do with Heathrow?
• "Relocation"of Heathrow to where it can expand to meet the UK's hub
demand and support London's growth potential.
• Long timescales to plan move and transitionary arrangements (done
elsewhere, cycles of capital investment)
• London can pro-actively manage this change and is a job creation dynamo
(35,000/year forecast)
• West London economy based on more than just access to Heathrow (labour
and property markets).
• Rapid surface access to new airport from across London and significant
improvement in PT modal shift as part of long term transport planning.
• Heathrow labour force mobile (45,000 in airlines) and already commute
relatively long distances.
• In the medium term residential redevelopment of 1,200 ha site with
c.80,000 homes would trigger 46,000 jobs aligned with skill sets of
surrounding residents.
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Potential for Strategic Infrastructure Planning
•Thames Gateway has 34% of the south east's total
housing capacity on only 3% of the land. One third of
London's housing capacity is in the Thames Gateway.
•If GDP and GVA match the Greater SE’s regional
averages, this would add £12 billion to the local
economy by 2020.
Commissioner’s Delivery Unit
Key milestones
Mayor of
London
Mayor of
London
Mayor of
London
DfT
DfT
Mayor of
London
A new
airport for
London:
Part 1
A new
airport for
London:
Part 2
Submission
to Airports
Commission
The
economic
benefits of a
new hub
airport
Airports
Commission
established
under
Sir Howard
Davies
Aviation
Policy
Framework
published
The case for
new
capacity
Response to
the DfT
Draft
Aviation
Policy
Framework
January 2011
November 2011
October 2012
November 2012
March 2013
Airports
Commission
Airports
Commission
Interim
report to be
published
Final report
to be
published
[calls for
evidence
throughout
2013]
July 2013
Late 2013
2015
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Next Steps
2013
• July: Mayor to publish submission to Airports Commission
• October: further analysis of options
2014
• Detailed presentation to sub regional transport panel
• On-going dialogue post Airports Commission interim report Dec 2013
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Contacts
Rhiannon Hill - Programme Manager: rhiannonhill@tfl.gov.uk
Guy Lavis - Exetrnal Affairs Lead: guylavis@tfl.gov.uk
Chris Mills – Transport Planning Manager: christophermills@tfl.gov.uk
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