2012 International Coral Reef Symposium
Cairns, Australia
Seasonal dynamical prediction of coral bleaching risk for reef management www.cawcr.gov.au
Claire Spillman & Aurel Griesser
Session 10: Modelling reef futures
9 July 2012
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research
A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

High ocean temperatures are the primary cause of mass coral bleaching events
Global warming likely to increase bleaching frequency and severity of bleaching events
Observed and projected annual
GBR mean SST under IPCC scenarios A2 & B1
(Lough et al 2006;
Donner et al. 2009)
Hoegh-Guldberg 1999; Donner et al 2005, 2009; Lough et al 2006
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research
A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

marine management
Minimal warning time
Reactive management
Early window for implementation of strategies to minimise impacts
Long term planning
Days Weeks to months Decades to centuries
Weather forecasting
Satellite nowcasts
Seasonal forecasting
Climate forecasting
Climate change
Better managed marine resources have improved improved resilience under climate change
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research
A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

Surveying bleached corals
• Seasonal timescale most useful for marine managers
• Provides an early window for implementation of management strategies to minimise impacts
• Dynamical models can incorporate climate change signals unlike statistical models
• Better managed marine resources have improved resilience under climate change
Spillman & Alves 2009, Spillman 2011
Image Commonwealth of Australia (GBRMPA)
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research
A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

• Global coupled ensemble ocean-atmosphere and data assimilation seasonal prediction system
• Ocean grid 0.5-1.5° north-south by 2° east-west
• Forecasts out to 9 months
• 33 member ensemble
• Probabilistic forecasts
• Run in real-time since 2002
• Upgrade to POAMA-2
Atmospheric Model
(BAM3.0)
Atmosphere Initial Conditions
Coupler (OASIS)
Ocean Model (ACOM2)
Ocean Initial Conditions
Atmosphere
&
Land Initial
Conditions
90 o E E 180 o W 90 o W 0 o http://poama.bom.gov.au
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research
A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology Spillman & Alves 2009, Spillman 2011, Spillman et al 2012

http://poama.bom.gov.au
• First operational dynamical seasonal forecasts for coral bleaching risk in the world
• Operational seasonal POAMA SST forecasts for the GBR produced in real-time and available online
• Provides advance warning of potential bleaching conditions
• Component of the GBRMPA
Coral Bleaching Response Plan
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research
A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology Spillman & Alves 2009, Spillman 2011, Spillman et al 2012

Operational:
• Spatial GBR SSTA
• GBR SSTA Index
• Operational products hosted by Ocean Services
Experimental:
• Degree Heating Months
• Probabilistic forecasts
• Google Earth products http://poama.bom.gov.au
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research
A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology Spillman 2011

January
February
Useful skill up to 3 months ahead during summer March
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research
A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology Spillman & Alves (2011), Spillman et al (2012)

Nov Dec Jan Feb Nov Dec Jan Feb
1998 bleaching event
Spillman et al (2012)
2002 bleaching event
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research
A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

Bleaching events
El Nino events
Spillman et al (2011), Spillman et al (2011)
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research
A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

• Development of a suite of experimental seasonal forecast products for coral bleaching risk in the Western Pacific
• Project within the Pacific-Australia
Climate Change Science
Adaptation Program ( PACCSAP )
• Skill evaluation of model forecasts of extreme ocean temperatures
• An improved understanding of the
PACCSAP Partner Countries large scale climate drivers
• Support and in-country training for Partner Countries to assist decision making and monitoring of anomalous ocean conditions likely to cause coral bleaching
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research
A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

Model Skill: DJF (L=0) Model-Persistence: DJF (L=0)
Model Skill: JJA (L=0) Model-Persistence: JJA (L=0)
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research
A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

• Online portal to deliver seasonal forecasts for the
Western Pacific under development
• Potential experimental forecast products:



SST & anomalies
Probabilities
Thermal stress
 Country indexes
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research
A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

• Improve community & stakeholder awareness of how climate influences local marine systems
• Advance warning of potential bleaching events allowing for proactive management & response
• Identification of future threats for long term planning & policy development
• Gain an understanding of the processes occurring & large scale climate drivers
Spillman & Alves 2009, Spillman 2011
Image Commonwealth of Australia (GBRMPA)
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research
A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

http://poama.bom.gov.au
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research
A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

• Global warming likely to increase coral bleaching frequency & severity
• POAMA seasonal forecast products are invaluable tools for proactive coral reef management
• Manage for better reef resilience in the face of a changing climate
Hoegh-Guldberg 1999; Spillman 2011; Spillman et al 2012
Image Commonwealth of Australia (GBRMPA)
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research
A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

• POAMA: http://poama.bom.gov.au
• PACCSAP: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/pacific/
• Operational forecasts: http://www.bom.gov.au/marine/
• Spillman et al. (2012) IJC, DOI:10.1002/joc.3486
• Griesser & Spillman (2012) CAWCR Res Lett, in press
• Spillman (2011) J Oper Ocean, 4(1):13-22.
• Spillman (2011) CAWCR Res Lett, 6:34-39
• Spillman et al. (2011) MWR, 139:317-331.
• Spillman et al. (2011) BAMS, 92: 1586-1591
• Spillman et al. (2009) Coral Reefs, 28:197-206
• Maynard et al. (2009) J Env Manage, 44:1-11
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research
A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research
A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
Dr Claire Spillman
Research Scientist
Phone: +61 9669 8105
Email: c.spillman@bom.gov.au
Web: www.cawcr.gov.au
www.cawcr.gov.au