Deep Convection A review of processes “Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not truth” Marcus Aurelius: AD121-180 Learning Outcomes • Review severe weather processes and associated parameters. • Review hodograph concepts • Understand the role of shear-related processes and parameters in determining propagation and updraft rotation. – Bulk shear; SREH • Review radar signatures associated with severe convective weather. Large Hail (> 2cm in diameter) Damaging Wind > 90kt gust at surface Physical Process Parameters used Radar products to diagnose Radar signatures Strong updraft; Hail embryos reside in regions of high supercooled liquid water in the hail growth region; - CAPE - Lifted Index - Freezing level heights (0 C, -20C) Minimal melting of hailstone Weak shear - Mid-level flow vector (transfer of momentum) & evaporatively driven downdraft Strong shear - Rear inflow jet - WBFZL (1.5 3.6km) - Shear / SREH - Mid-level wind strength - DMAPE - CAPPI - WER / BWER - low-level reflectivity gradient - storm-top displacement - TBSS - anomolous propagation - mid-level rotation - splitting / -Storm top div - Radar algorithms -Mid-level convergence - low-level divergence - low to mid-level velocity maximum - bow echo - Strong precipitation Heavy precipitation - Long lasting (based on 1 in 10 year R I) Tornado convection (slow moving cells / Large cells / Stationary trigger) - Precipitable Water > monthly (ave +1 SD) - Warm Cloud Depth > 3.0km -Adiabatic Liquid Water Content > 12g/kg - weak steering flow - Large accumulations - Shear (0-1km) - Strong lowlevel rotation - TVS [10ms-1] - SREH (0-1km) - EHI - Low LCL heights - 0-1km CAPE Buoyancy and shear processes Measuring buoyancy - CAPE 1 T T dz integrating: d( w ) g EL LFC 2 2 EL LFC V V TV 1 w CAPE 2 2 TV cloud parcel curve EL Where w is updraft strength in m/s Maximum possible value (excluding super cells) CAPE is the positive area between the parcel and environment virtual temperature curves between the LFC and the EL on the skew T –log P diagram TV environment curve DMAPE The method used in Australia to determine the downdraft psuedo-adiabat Mid-way moist adiabat Predicted saturated adiabat for updraft parcel Mean moist adiabat 650-450hPa 1 2 w DMAPE 2 w downdraft speed LFS=Level of Free sinking DMAPE area Estimating the convective gust strength Mean Layer Flow (MLF) Vector (650-450hPa) The resultant Surface Convective Gust is the Vector addition of the MLF vector and the downdraft vector (calculated via DMAPE). Vertically orientated downdraft vector due to negative buoyancy – magnitude calculated from DMAPE area on sounding 2.7 Summary - Special buoyancy factors associated with Severe Convection Strong Instability immediately above LFC (strong Lapse Rate) Height of environmental WBFZL Dry slots in mid and lowlevels or deep moist layer to 500hPa Stable layer capping moist low-levels (CIN) Low-level moisture • Plot the following hodograph. Level (hPa) height WindDir Speed (kts) 1010 Surf 050 16 943 500m 360 14 910 1000m 344 11 850 1500m 330 13 785 2000m 309 15 700 3000m 290 27 650 3600m 273 31 600 4200m 270 30 500 6000m 275 39 Activity Equations of Motion F ma a F 1 m 2. Building tools Du 1 p (1) Dt x Dv 1 p ( 2) Dt y Dw 1 p g (3) Dt z p = total pressure; = density These equations contain density because they are in height (z) co-ordinates. They appear simpler than those for synoptic-scale motions because the effect of the Coriolis force and Friction is not included. 2. Building tools The environment in which we will grow a storm - the basic state z Activity u u ( z ) z vv0 ww0 p p z p g (4) z z x The over-bar denotes basic – state values. 2. Building tools Vorticity in our (basic-state) environment Right – hand rule: The (environmental) vorticity vector points to the left of the shear vector u w z x 2. Building tools An updraft grows in our environment z small In and around the storm values of ' ( z ) ( x, y, z, t )(5) pressure, density and wind are p p( z ) p ' ( x, y, z, t ) perturbed away from their environmental values x 3a. Linear terms Cloud modelling results z = 6km, t = 40mins; p’ cont. intervals at 0.5 hPa; Updraft (heavy) contours at 10m/s intervals. 2. Building tools Pressure and vorticity that arise when updraft interacts with a shear layer • Consider a slice of atmosphere (say at z = 3km). ' ' u w p ~ z x z y w0 - z 3km p 0 w’ p 0 ' + u ' x 3a. Linear terms Straight line hodograph Positive vorticity Negative vorticity Curved hodograph – 3 layer model 2 3 1 1 3 Activity 2 • Consider these anti-clockwise and clockwise turning hodograph to be composed of 3 shear layers (1. a low-level layer , 2. a mid-level layer and 3. a high-level layer) stacked on top of one another. • Determine the pressure perturbations relative to the shear vector for each layer. • Where does high perturbation pressure near the ground underlie low perturbation pressure aloft ? 3a. Linear terms Anti-clockwise turning hodograph • When the shear vector turns with height the orientation of the H and L pressure areas turn with height so that an upwardly directed pressure gradient force drives new updraft on the left flank of the storm. This forcing makes the storm propagate to the left of the steering flow. The new updraft is correlated with mid-level cyclonic vorticity. 3b. Non-Linear terms The storm inflow layer and3c. itsStorm-Relitive rotationalHelecity potential • Board exercise. We will develop the accompanying conceptual model “hodograph picture” in the lectures. Storm motion vector SREH ( z ) z (U c). dz z0 Storm relative wind vector Vorticity vector * Board derivation The mathematical definition of SREH (U – c) is the storm relative flow vector is the vorticty vector SREH – Straight line hodograph 3c. Storm-Relitive Helecity S E W “Steering” flow vector sfc 800 hPa 500 hPa N Area proportional to the SREH calculated between (0-2km) AGL for left moving versus right moving storms – straight hodograph. In the straight line hodograph case both the left and right moving members of the original split have equal magnitudes of SREH. 3c. Storm-Relitive Helecity SREH – Backing shear vector hodograph profile S E sfc W 500 hPa 800 hPa N Area proportional to the SREH calculated between (0-2km) AGL for left moving versus right moving storms – curved hodograph. In this case the hodograph curvature produces a larger magnitude of SREH for the right - moving storm. Learning Outcomes • Review severe weather processes, associated parameters. • Review hodograph concepts • Understand the role of shear-related processes and parameters in determining propagation and updraft rotation. – Bulk shear; SREH • Review radar signatures associated with severe convective weather.