The Development Context Discussion
Session 1
Overview of Thailand’s power
demand and supply
With reference to proposed mainstream
dams in the Lower Mekong Basin
Presented on behalf of the MRCS by
Lawrence Haas, MRCS – Consultant (Initiative on Sustainable Hydropower)
Purpose of the Presentation:
Facilitate discussion on
1. Demand-supply – latest update on information?
2. Future sources of power supply in Thailand – what policies?
3. Challenges in meeting demand – what are they?
4. Contribution of hydropower trade in meeting Thailand’s power demand existing agreements and prospects
5. Hydropower development on the Mekong tributaries and mainstream
More specifically
• What other aspects should the SEA address - in relation to proposed
mainstream dams and Thailand’s power sector development
• Follow-up discussion with TNMC / Line Agencies – on data, issues
What information sources will the SEA use?
On power sector aspects
Apart from National data and available project studies from Developers






GMS Roadmap for Implementing Greater Mekong
Sub-Region Cross-Boarder Power Trade
TNMC Hydropower Sector Review, 2009
Completed and ongoing ADB Studies and RETAs –
Sustainable Energy Futures for the GMS; Update of
the GMS Road Map
MRC’s Hydropower Data Base
MRC’s BDP Scenarios with updated information on
mainstream projects from the SEA
Stakeholder submissions?
Existing Information Available
Provides Information on Thailand’s:
•
Power Sector and Hydropower
Policies and Strategies
•
Thailand Load forecast from
PDP (2005)
•
Hydropower projects and
resources in Thailand (e.g. Existing
Hydro: 767 MW – 885 GW)
•
Development of Transmission in
Northern Thailand – ( a map)
Thailand: Overall demand-supply trend
Thailand’s electricity consumption
by sector 2003
140
30
120
25
100
20
80
15
60
10
40
20
5
0
0
Installed capacity
Source: EIA 2009
Net generation
Gigawatts
Billion Kilowatthours
Thailand’s electricity supply and
consumption 1981 - 2006
Net consumption
Source: ASEAN Centre for energy
Thailand demand forecasts to 2025
470
Possible Discussion Points
Thousand Gwh
420
370
•
What are the latest
projections?
•
What are the challenges
meeting demand?
•
To what extent is new
generation planned e.g.
criteria?
320
270
220
170
120
MOE forecast
Actual
ADB GMS estimate
2020
2018
2016
2014
2012
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
70
1.
2.
3.
To meet load growth
To replace retiring plant
To fuel switch? E.g. for
renewable energy?
Source: Ministry of Energy (cited Draft Mekong River Basin Hydropower Sector Review in Thailand, 2009), Economics of
energy integration , ADB, 2008
Thailand Electricity Generation by fuel type:
Past and Future?
One Scenario 2005 – 2025 (ADB)
Actual 1986-2006
?
Source: EGAT (cited Draft Mekong River Basin
Hydropower Sector Review in Thailand, 2009)
Source: Economics of energy integration , ADB,
2008 (base case)
Possible Discussion Points:
Policies and Trends:
•
•
Power Import Policies?
Fuel Specific Policies?
Hydropower projects on Lower
Mekong tributaries
123 in operation, under
construction and planned,
total some 15,700 MW
Hydropower Development in the Lower Mekong Basin
Capacity in MW
Includes proposed mainstream dams
20,000
From MRC Hydropower Data Base
15,000
Total in MRC Hydropower Data Base
(134 Projects) - Used in BDP
Scenarios
GWH
MW
134,000
29,760
54,705
14,111
79,295
15,649
10,000 Total of 11 Mainstream Dam
Proposals (approximate as these are
being decided in feasibility studies
underway)
5,000
0
Tributary Development
(Existing + Other)
In operation
Under
construction
Under licensing
Planned /
Planned
Proposed
Thailand policy context for cross-boarder
power trade
Relevant to mainstream dam proposals
MOUs for power imports from Cambodia and Lao PDR)
Lao PDR:
•
•
•
•
MOU to import up to 3,000 MW, subject to PPAs and other terms
Theun Hinboun and Huay Ho
MOU to import up to 5,000 MW, subject to PPAs and other terms
2006 – Nam Theun 2 and Nam Ngum 2 (and Nam Ngum 3)
Cambodia PDR:
•
Strategy is power trade with neighbouring countries
Legal framework for private developers and Public-Private Projects (PPPs)
Markets for proposed mainstream dams
Thailand
Power
Market
Thailand
Market
Candidates
Candidates
Potential Project
Possible Power
Market
Installed Capacity
MW
Mean Annual Energy
GWh/yr
MW
GwH/yr
1,230
5,517
1
Pak Beng
Thailand
(EGAT)
1,230
5,517
2
Lauang Prabang
Vietnam
(EVN)
1,410
5,437
3
Xayabouly
Thailand
(EGAT)
1,260
6,035
1,260
6,035
4
Pak Lay
Thailand
(EGAT)
1,320
6,460
1,320
6,460
5
Sanakham
Thailand
(EGAT)
1,200
5,015
1,200
5,015
6
Pakchom
-
1,079
5,318
7
Ban Koum
Thailand
(EGAT)
1,872
8,434
1,872
8,434
8
Latsua
Thailand
(EGAT)
800
3,504
800
3,504
9
Don Sahong
Thailand
(EGAT)
360
2,375
360
2,375
10
Stung Treng
Vietnam
(EVN)
980
4,870
11
Sambor
Vietnam
(EVN)
2,600
11,740
14,111
64,705
8,042
37,340
Installed capacities
and energy
generated subject to
change with:
• Feasibility and
EIA study
• Optimization
• Negotiation
• Other
Other Aspects?
• Thailand power project funds – local development –
benefit sharing?
• Regulatory Policies? – e.g. Minimum Portfolio
Standards? 0.5 to 8.0 % renewable by 2011?
• Valuation of GHG emission reduction from noncarbon electricity generation?
For Discussion
1.
Demand-supply – latest update on information?
2.
Future sources of power supply in Thailand – what
policies?
3.
Challenges in meeting demand – what are they?
4.
Contribution of hydropower trade in meeting
Thailand’s power demand - existing agreements
and prospects – power import policy?
5.
Hydropower development on the Mekong
tributaries and mainstream
6.
Other issues