CAUSE OF ‘THE PAUSE’ IN GLOBAL WARMING:
ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR FUTURE CLIMATESTHE PAST IS THE KEY TO THE FUTURE
Don J. Easterbrook
Dept. of Geology
Western Washington University
Bellingham, WA
WARNING!!!!
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A LOT OF DATA IS COMING!!!
What is ‘the pause’ ?
The absence of global warming for the past ~18 years has become known as “the
pause.” but, in fact, that is a bad term because it implies that the norm is continued
warming and cooling is an anomaly. It has been characterized as the “biggest mystery
in climate science,” but it is not a mystery at all—it’s been going on for millenia.
Atmospheric CO2 increased only 0.004% during ‘global warming
Previous ‘pauses’
Three warming periods since
1850 have been interrupted by
cool periods (‘pauses’).
20 warming periods since
1480 have been interrupted by
cool periods (‘pauses’)
Warm/cool periods over
the past 10,000 years
Until the Little Ice Age
began about 1300 AD,
the climate had been
2½-5½ °F warmer than
present for 8,500 years.
Cause of the ‘warming pause’
Glacier fluctuations
match the Pacific
Decadal Oscillation
(PDO) which matches
global temperature
Good correlation
of PDO + AMO
and Arctic mean
temperatures
and glaciers in
the Alps
GLACIER FLUCTUATIONS
CLIMATE CHANGES
PDO-AMO MODE CHANGES
WHAT DRIVES PDO-AMO MODES?
WHAT’S IN STORE FOR THE NEXT 30 YRS?
Predicting future climates
In order to predict where we are heading,
we need to know where we’ve been.
The past is the key to the future.
Having established a well-defined pattern
of warming and cooling, we can project
that pattern into the future.
Measuring climatic warming/cooling
in the geologic past
 Historic
temperature
measurements
 Oxygen
isotope ratios in
deep ice cores.
 Advance
glaciers.
and retreat of
 Measurement
temperatures
of ocean
Data in this presentation
may be found in this volume
PDO 1900-present
Modified from http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/
Pattern of repeated warm/cool PDOs
DJE predictions in 2000
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“Global warming is over“ (Easterbrook, 2000, 2010)
“The current warm cycle should end in the next few years,
and global warming should abate, rather than increase, in
the coming decades.” (Easterbrook, 2000)
“The current warm cycle should end soon and global
temperatures should cool.” (Easterbrook, 2006
How cool will it get?
1, Like 1945-1977?
2. Like 1880-1915?
3. Like 1790-1820
Dalton Minimum?
4. Like 1650-1700
Maunder Minimum?
How well is the 2000 cooling prediction doing?
5-year and 10 year
cooling trends
Winters in the
US have been
much cooler than
usual in the past
15 years
Summary
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A consistent pattern of global warming and cooling has occurred
for hundreds (thousands) of years.
The pattern of past global warming and cooling can be projected
into the future as a basis for predicting climate changes.
The pattern of global warming and cooling matches warm and cool
periods of the PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) and is clearly
related to the PDO/AMO.
Projection of past climate patterns into the future, combined
with the PDO turning cold in 1999 led to 2000 predictions of
cooler global climates in the next several decades.
So far my 2000 prediction of global cooling is indeed happening.
The cause of global warming and cooling
 Role of the sun in climate change

Correlation of global temperature and
 1. Sun spot number (SSN)
 2. Iotal solar insolation (TSI)
 3. Solar magnetism
 4. Cosmic ray intensity
 5. Production rate of 10Be.
 6. Prodcution rate of 14C
CET during the Maunder
Sun spots and cool periods
TSI and global temperature
SSN and TSI
Global cooling and TSI
Solar magnetic flux
Production rates of 14C and 10Be
as a measure of past cosmic ray activituy

14N
7
 14C6


+n=
14C
6
+ 1H1
= 14N7 + -
Production of 14C6 varies with the neutron flux,
causing 14C6 age to differ from calendar age
Comparison of 14C ages with ages of tree rings gives a
measure of 14C production rates (and thus changes in
cosmic radiation)
 10Be
is produced in the atmosphere by the cosmic ray
spallation of oxygen and is also a function of cosmic
ray flux.
10Be
CET temperature and 10Be
10Be
and SSN
Both
10Be
and 14C record increased cosmic activity
Sun spots and cosmic rays
Cosmic ray incidence
increases with low sun
spot numbers
Temperature decreases with increase in cosmic rays
Condensation produced by cosmic rays
CONCLUSONS
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‘Global warming’ began in 1978.
‘The pause’ is a period of no warming for
the past 17 yrs 9 months.
Temperatures for the past 10,000 yrs
were 2½-5½°F warmer than present until
1500 yrs ago when we entered the LIA.
Many period of warming that ended with
cool periods have occurred in the past.
Well-defined patterns of the PDO and
global temperature projected into the
future indicate 25-30 yrs of cooling.
My 2000 prediction of 25-30 yrs of
cooling has been confirmed by cooling in
the past decade.
The amount of cooling might be similar to
the 1945-1977, 1890-1915, Dalton (17901820), or Maunder (1650-1700) cooling.
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Good correlation of SSN, TSI, solar magnetism,
cosmic ray intensity, and production rates of 14C
and 10Be and global temperature indicate causeand-effect relationships between them.
The Maunder, Dalton, 1890-1915, and 1945-1977
cool periods were all characterized by low SSN,
low TSI, low solar magnetism, and high production
rates of 14C and 10Be.
Increased cosmic radiation induces atmospheric
condensation that could lead to increased
cloudiness and cooler temperatures (Svensmark).
The sun causes global warming and cooling, but the
mechanism is not understood.
Look for continued global cooling.
Time will be the judge of whether or not these
observations and conclusions are correct.
Dogma is an impediment
to the free exercise of
thought. It paralyses
the intelligence.
Conclusions based upon
preconceived ideas are
valueless. It is only the
open mind that really
thinks. Patricia Wentworth, 1949
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Don Easterbrook global
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