The Darkest Terror:
The Threat of WMD and Catastrophic Terrorism
The Combating Terrorism Center
at west point
Dr. James Forest, Director of Terrorism Studies
the Problem
• “Terrorists have declared their intention to acquire and use
weapons of mass destruction (WMD) to inflict even more
catastrophic attacks against the United States, our allies,
partners, and other interests around the world. ”
2006 US National Strategy for Combating Terrorism
• “The prospect that a nuclear capable state may lose control of
some of its weapons to terrorists is one of the greatest dangers
the US and its allies face.”
Quadrennial Defense Review, February 6, 2006
• “The greatest threat to U.S. and global security is no longer a
nuclear exchange between nations, but nuclear terrorism by
violent extremists.”
President Barak Obama, April 6, 2010
The Threat, PART 1
Intentions
High
High
Low
Low
Capabilities &
Opportunities
The Environment
During the Cold War
• Bipolar international system
• Monopoly of nukes & CBW by strong, powerful states
• Terrorists did not cross threshold of mass destruction
• Nuclear terrorism ruled out because of stringent security
surrounding atomic material in US/USSR
The Post-Cold War threat environment has changed
• The Non-Proliferation Regime’s crisis of legitimacy & nuclear
proliferation in South Asia, N Korea, the Middle East
• Fears of CBRN proliferation post-Soviet collapse
• Precedents set by Aum Shinriyko, LTTE and Chechen rebels
• The 2001 anthrax attacks in US
• Jihadi terrorist groups’ explicit interest in WMD to inflict mass
casualties on their enemies
• Major advances in biotechnology
Opportunities
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Transfer by a sympathetic national government,
perhaps using export control loopholes
Assistance from custodians of nuclear weapons
(security guards)
Unauthorized assistance from corrupt, angry or
disenchanted, scientists/officials
Seizure without insider help via armed raids
Coup d’etat and chaos in a nuclear-armed failing state
Technical information to build a nuclear weapon is
widely available
With relatively little radioactive material obtained from
a power plant or medical facility, terrorists could
construct a “dirty bomb”
Weapons
4 Weapon Types
1.
2.
3.
4.
Biological
Chemical
Radiological
Nuclear
•
Effects produced by Chemical and Biological Weapons are
usually delayed and spread over time.
•
Terrorists, in contrast, prefer spectacular, massive impact,
instant worldwide publicity, shock & awe effect
•
Nuclear or radiological may be more likely, but are
significantly more difficult to design or acquire
•
WMD attack on agricultural sector?
Critical Infrastructure
“Pre-positioned WMD?”
• Nuclear power plants
– arrests in Canada (2003), Britain (2004),
Australia (2005), and India (2006) foiled
plots to carry out attacks on nuclear plants
• Chemical storage facilities
• Bio-technology labs
• Dams, water protection
infrastructure (e.g., Hurricane Katrina)
• Urban transportation of toxic
chemicals, etc.
• 9/11 attacks used a type of
“pre-positioned” weapons
The Threat, Part 2
Intentions
High
High
Low
Low
Capabilities &
Opportunities
Ideologies of violence
A Spectrum of Ideologies
Threshold of
catastrophic
violence
Nonviolent
Protests
Groups that want to
change the world, but
reject the need for
violent means
Apocalyptic
Terrorism
Groups that want to
change the world,
and see a need for
violent means
Groups that want to
destroy the world,
for various reasons,
possibly with WMD
Al-Qaida & WMD
• AQ has long expressed a direct interest in WMD.
– “It is our religious duty to acquire nuclear and chemical weapons to
terrorize the enemies of Allah” – Osama bin Laden, 1998
– The 11th volume of Al-Qaeda’s 5000-page “Encyclopedia of Jihad” is
devoted to explaining how to construct Chemical and Biological
Weapons
– Saudi Cleric Shaykh Nasir Bin Hamd Al-Fahd attempted to religiously
legitimize the use of WMDs
• Revelations post-9/11 provide evidence AQ has sought to
–
–
–
–
Establish links with Pakistani nuclear scientists
Obtain nuclear suitcase bombs from Russia
Procure Bio-Chem agents from Czech Republic, Iraq, DPRK
Develop means for spreading disease and poison
Al-Qaida & WMD
• Late 1993-1994: Al Qaida tries to acquire uranium in Sudan to use in
a nuclear device
(per Testimony by Jawal al-Fadl, Feb. 2001)
• Dec 24, 1998: Bin Laden tells TIME magazine reporter, “Acquiring
WMD for the defense of Muslims is a religious duty.”
• Early 1999: AQ recruits Rauf Ahmed, mid-level Pakistani biologist, to
develop a bio weapons program in Kandahar
• 1991-2001: AQ training camps in Afghanistan conduct chemical,
biological and radiological courses; Tarnak Farms led by Abu Khabab
al-Masri (chemist) and Abu Musab al-Suri (prolific AQ theorist)
Al-Qaida & WMD
• January 2001: New organization UTN founded by Bashiruddin
Mahmood, former chief of Pakistan’s Khushab plutonium reactor and
AQ sympathizer; he declares that Pakistan’s nuclear weapons should
be “the property of the whole umma (global Muslim community).”
• October 23, 2001: Several UTN members detailed by Pakistan
Intelligence (ISID) at the request of U.S. Government; post-9/11
cooperation with the U.S. makes it harder for Pakistan to ignore the
connections between its scientists and al Qaida.
• October 2003: Nuclear weapons design and technology supply
network, run by Pakistani chief scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan, is
uncovered; Libya gives up its clandestine nuclear program
Al-Qaida & WMD
• November 2001: UTN founder Bashiruddin Mahmood and several
others are formerly arrested in Pakistan; Mahmood confesses to
meeting bin Laden and providing expertise for designing an
improvised nuclear device; He claims that bin Laden suggests alQaida may already have nuclear material
• October 21, 2002): Abu Musab al-Suri praises the 9/11 attacks, but
said a better plan would have been to load the hijacked airplanes with
weapons of mass destruction: "Let the American people - those who
voted for killing, destruction, the looting of other nations' wealth,
megalomania and the desire to control others - be contaminated with
radiation."
• May 21, 2003; Saudi cleric Nasir al Fahd publishes 26-page fatwa
justifying use of WMD.
Religious Justifications?
Using WMD Against Infidels
Saudi Cleric Shaykh Nasir Bin Hamd Al-Fahd attempted to religiously
legitimize the use of WMDs by stating that:
• Laws and treaties established by infidels against the use of
nuclear, biological and chemical weapons have no standing in
Islamic law.
• Pronouncements of historical Islamic jurists legitimate WMD and
provide exceptions to the prohibition against killing women and
children.
• Damage American bombs have done to Muslim lands over many
years justifies revenge
Al-Qaida & WMD
• August 2003: CNN airs video of AQ experiments in Afghanistan
conducted on animals (particularly dogs) during the 1990s, involving
various toxins and poisons like cyanide creams, ricin, mustard and
sarin gas, and botulinum.
• June 26, 2003: Armenian citizen Garik Dadayan is caught with 170
grams of highly enriched uranium on the Georgia-Armenia border;
interrogation reveals this was a sample of a larger amount that was
being offered for sale to an unknown customer
• 2006: A shipment of weapons grade (90% enriched) uranium is seized
in Georgia and brought to the U.S. for analysis
Al-Qaida & WMD
• September 28, 2006: Abu Ayyub al-Masri—the leader of al Qaeda in
Iraq—encouraged his fellow terrorists to consider testing these
weapons in Iraq: “The field of jihad (holy war) can satisfy your
scientific ambitions, and the large American bases (in Iraq) are good
places to test your unconventional weapons, whether biological or
dirty, as they call them.”
• July 28, 2008: Abu Khabab killed by a U.S. Predator strike in Pakistan
Why?
On a strategic level, Al Qaida’s leaders want WMD because:
• Damage the U.S. and West economically
• Competition with other “voices” in the Muslim world, and a
catastrophic terror attack will allow them to claim center stage
• Supporters of the global salafi-jihadist movement want and expect
a “spectacular” event even bigger than 9/11
– A mushroom cloud (visual impact) more than massive numbers of bio or
chem deaths
• Fuel aligned ideological movements by showing strength of weak
against strong
• America and the West have it coming; a WMD attack is necessary
to “even the score”
A Global Response
• Determine intentions (analysis of ideology, strategy)
• Diminish, destroy capabilities
• Group level
• Environmental enablers
• Domestic and international dimensions
• All dimensions (DIME) of national power needed
• Other aspects of our response?
Conclusion
• WMD terrorist attacks require very specific kinds of
intentions and capabilities
• Few groups have WMD intentions, even fewer have
capabilities
• Al Qaida is considered by most analysts as one of the
few groups in the “high intentions” and “potential high
capability” category
• No evidence that bin Laden has been able to translate
interest in WMD into viable plans or operations
• But, what we don’t know could be very frightening . . .
Questions?