Is Carbon Trading and Investment
the next Sub-Prime Crisis?
“Dubious Assets and Dodgy Data”
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The Sub-Prime Crisis
Investment
Managers & Advisers
Investors
AAA
Securities
Issuing
banks
Property Agents
Lenders
Historic Mortgage
experience based on
Credit-worthy
Owner-Occupiers
Credit Ratings Agencies
Loan files (tapes)
Fraudulent applications/Poor risks
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Borrowers
2
Anthropogenic Global Warming
(AGW)
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The scientific method

Establish hypothesis

Conduct experiments and observations

Publish results in an accredited scientific journal

Make source data, assumptions, calculations
and programs available to others

Independent peer review

Hypothesis is proven or abandoned
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AGW hypothesis
“It is now clear that man-made greenhouse gases
are causing climate change. The rate of change
began as significant, has become alarming and
is simply unsustainable in the long term”
Warming
Climate change – the
facts
Met Office 2009
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Greenhouse effect
Warming
Climate change – the facts
Met Office 2009
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Absence of greenhouse hot-spots
The Missing Hotspot - Dr David Evans
http://sciencespeak.com/MissingSignature.pdf
http://sciencespeak.com/SimpleHotspot.pdf
http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2007/2005JD006881.shtml
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Correlation of CO2 and temperature
This figure shows historical CO2 (right axis) and reconstructed temperature (as a difference
from the mean temperature for the last 100 years) records based on Antarctic ice cores,
providing data for the last 800,000 years.
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The logic puzzle?
“Temperature and CO2 are linked. Studies of polar-ice
layers show that in the past, rises in temperature have
been followed by an increase in CO2. Now, it is a rise in
CO2 causing the temperature to rise."
Warming
Climate change – the facts
Met Office 2009
Over the last 800,000 years, rises in global temperatures have
preceded increased concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere by up
to 800 years
 Global temperatures fell from 1940 to 1979 whilst CO2 emissions
escalated throughout the post-war industrial boom
 C02 concentration in the atmosphere has been much higher

(000's of parts per million)
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CO2
• 95% of greenhouse gas is water vapour
• CO2's contribution to greenhouse effect is < 3%
http://www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/greenhouse_data.html
• Any warming influence is logarithmic – the first
20ppm has the greatest effect by far
• At current levels (390 parts per million)
additional CO2 will have little effect
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Feedbacks
• Predictions based on 200% to 300% positive
feedback from increased CO2 concentrations
• Most climate models rely on this false premise
• Actual observations indicate mildly negative
feedbacks
On the Diagnosis of Feedback in the Presence of Unknown
Radiative Forcing by Dr. Roy W. Spencer and William D.
Braswell
http://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/Spencer-Braswell-JGR-2010.pdf
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Temperature data
•
Surface temperature records – Urban Heating
Influence, lack of global uniformity, unintended
consequences
Anthony Watts – http://wattsupwiththat.com/
•
Proxy data: ice cores, tree rings, fossilised
pollen and coral reefs
•
Weather Balloons
•
Satellites
•
History
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History
•
Chaucer wrote of vineyards in England
•
Medieval Warm Period - temperatures c.1-3ºC
higher than today
•
Roman and Holocene warm periods
•
Vikings settled Greenland c. 980 to 1400 AD
•
Little Ice Age – Maunder and Dalton minima
•
Samuel Pepys wrote in 1683 of the Great Frost
Fair on the River Thames – frozen for several
weeks
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IPCC Report 1991
H.H. Lamb graph of temperature over the past 1,000 years
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IPCC 2001 Report
IPCC hockey stick graph of the past 1,000 years
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Debunking the hockey stick
•
McIntyre and McKitrick
http://www.uoguelph.ca/~rmckitri/research/trc.html
•
Edward J Wegman, George Mason University,
David W Scott, Rice University, and Yasmin H
Said, The John Hopkins University
http://republicans.energycommerce.house.gov/108/home/07142006_Wegman_Report.pdf
•
McShane and Wyner 2010
http://www.e-publications.org/ims/submission/index.php/AOAS/user/submissionFile/6695?confirm=63ebfddf
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Climategate – November 2009


68Mb of documents and emails from the University of
East Anglia's Climatic Research Unit (CRU) posted on
the internet
Confirmation of the isolated and politicised
paleoclimatic community

Collusion, data and program manipulation

HARRY_READ_ME.txt

Hide the decline (Mike's Nature trick)
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Climategate – three inquiries 2010



UK Parliament Science and Technology Committee – rushed
(impending general election), superficial and biased
Oxbrough – not independent of UEA, characterised as a
whitewash by Graham Stringer MP
Muir Russell – not independent and described as inadequate by
Graham Stringer MP
No-one investigated the science supporting the AGW theory
John P Costella - http://assassinationscience.com/climategate/
CRU evidence:
http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200910/cmselect/cmsctech/387/387ii.pdf
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Extreme weather events

Counting Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Back to 1900 Chris Landsea, of the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/landsea-eos-may012007.pdf

Have disaster losses increased due to
anthropogenic climate change? - Laurens M
Bouwer of the Institute for Environmental Studies,
Amsterdam
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2010BAMS3092.1
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Polar Ice

Antarctic Temperature and Sea Ice Trends over the
Last Century - George Taylor, CCM
http://icecap.us/images/uploads/antarctica_white_paper_final.pdf

Arctic temperatures above 80°N are the lowest in
six years
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/01/23/arctic-temperatures-above-80%C2%B0n-are-the-lowest-in-six-years/
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Retreating glaciers



Glacial retreat in the Himalayas has been overstated
by the IPCC
In the 1940s Swiss glaciers were melting faster than
at present
Reduction in glacier mass is ascribed to solar
radiation rather than man-made global warming
http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2009/2009GL040789.shtml
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Lack of Evidence
• No discernible greenhouse effect in troposphere
• No evidence that CO2 is driving temperature
• Current temperatures within the bounds of
natural variability
• No evidence that global warming is causing
extreme weather events
• Arctic polar ice growing again, evidence of
cooling in the Antarctic -1966 to 2000
• Glacier retreat ascribed to solar radiation
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Natural cycles and global
temperature

Solar cycles - sunspots, solar magnetism, inverse correlation
between cycle length and global temperatures
http://www.davidarchibald.info/papers/Archibald2009E&E.pdf



Galactic Cosmic Rays – influence cloud formation
http://cdsweb.cern.ch/record/1181073/
Albedo – reduction in low level reflective cloud cover accounts
for recent warming from 1980 to 2000
Pacific, Atlantic, Arctic ocean decadal and multi-decadal
oscillations distribute heat from the tropics. Evidence of cycles
and time lags
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Pacific decadal oscillation
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“Is the science is settled?”

Senate Minority Report – over 700 scientists
publicly dissent
http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Files.View&FileStore_id=83947f5d-d84a-4a84-ad5d-6e2d71db52d9

The IPCC can't count its "expert scientists":
Author and reviewer numbers are wrong - John
McLean 2009
http://mclean.ch/climate/docs/IPCC_numbers.pdf

Copenhagen Climate Change Challenge – 166
expert climate scientists write an open letter to
UN Secretary-General, Ban Ki Moon
http://www.copenhagenclimatechallenge.org/
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Structural incentives to prove and
promote AGW



IPCC exists to promote the AGW hypothesis
Paleoclimatic community and climate models drive the IPCC
agenda – receive funding to support AGW hypothesis
$50+billion spent by successive US governments on man-made
global warming agenda in since 1989

Carbon trading worth c. $140 billion in 2008

US “Cap and Trade” legislation could boost it to $1trillion+

Carbon industry will evaporate if AGW hypothesis is abandoned
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st
21
Century Carbon Caper
Investment
Managers & Advisers
Carbon trading industry
Politicians and Media
Informed
Sceptics
Carbon
Credits
Investors
Flawed Climate Models
and Hockey Sticks
IPCC, pro-AGW
warming scientists
Solar Cycles, Galactic Cosmic Rays,
Albedo Fluctuation, Oceanic Oscillations
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Objective
scientists
28
Further research
www.outersite.org
http://www.greatglobalwarmingswindle.co.uk/
http://www.friendsofscience.org/index.php?id=394
http://climateaudit.org/
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/12697/64796?RS_show_page=7
“Chill, A Reassessment of Global Warming”
http://www.ethos-uk.com/publishing.html
Beware of wikipedia – climate information has been systematically corrupted
http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/fpcomment/archive/2009/12/19/lawrence-solomonwikipedia-s-climate-doctor.aspx
Michael Mann and co-conspirators (their term, not mine – Tom Wigley, former Director of CRU, in an
email to Michael Mann) have a pro-AGW site:
www.realclimate.org
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Roy Spencer – monthly global
temperature anomolies
http://www.drroyspencer.com/latest-global-temperatures/
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st
21
Century Carbon Caper
• No evidence that CO2 is driving temperature
• Recent warming not unprecedented
• Solar cycles and Oceanic oscillations drive
temperature
• No scientific consensus
• Structural incentives to obscure the truth
• Conduct fundamental research
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