IT’S THE SUN: changes in solar
radiance striking the ground
Christopher
of Brenchley
explain
recentMonckton
temperature
changes
monckton@mail.com
Heartland Conference, 2012
The Climate
of Freedom
IT’S THE SUN: changes in solar
radiance striking the ground
explain recent temperature changes
The illogic of
climate hysteria
Aristotle
Singer
Alarmist fallacies
1
Conclusion: ‘There’s a consensus’
Classification: Headcount fallacy
Latin name: Argumentum ad populum
2
Conclusion: ‘Experts agree’
Classification: Reputation fallacy
Latin: Argumentum ad verecundiam
3
‘We can’t explain warming without a
strong effect from manmade CO2’
Fallacy of argument from ignorance
Argumentum ad ignorantiam
4
‘Warming is accelerating,
so we are the cause’
Red-herring fallacy
Ignoratio elenchi
5
‘What about the cuddly
polar bears?’
Fallacy of inappropriate pity
Argumentum ad misericordiam
6
‘We add CO2 to the air:
it causes warming:
so observed warming is down to us’
Fallacy of false cause
Post hoc ergo propter hoc
7
‘We tell the models CO2 causes much
warming: they tell us just the same’
Begging-the-question fallacy
Petitio principii
8
‘Warming makes hurricanes bad:
Katrina was bad: so we caused it’
Fallacy of accident
Argumentum a dicto simpliciter
ad dictum secundum quid
9
‘Arctic ice is melting, so manmade
global warming caused it’
Fallacy of converse accident
Argumentum a dicto secundum quid
ad dictum simpliciter
10
‘Agree with us or we’ll haul you up
before the International Climate Court’
Argument of force
Argumentum ad baculum
Rights of legal personality
for ‘Mother Earth’
International ‘Climate Court’
against Western nations only
CO2 concentration cut to 200 ppmv,
killing trees, plants, and animals
Proposals dropped from Durban draft, 2011
11
‘Monckton says he’s a Lord.
Parliament’s clerks says he isn’t.
So he’s wrong about the climate.
Attack on the man, not his argument
Argumentum ad hominem
12
GOOGLE search term:
‘Monckton liar’
About 4,700,000 page hits found
Argumentum Alinskiense
IT’S THE SUN: changes in solar
radiance striking the ground
explain recent temperature changes
It isn’t happening
as predicted
IPCC models over-predict ocean warming
Dr. David Evans
+6 x 1022 J
Climate models
+4 x 1022 J
Global ocean
heat content
+2 x 1022 J
–2 x 1022 J
Observations
ARGO buoys (0-700 m)
2006
2008
2010
2012
0.50
m
2011/12: sea-level
is lowest in 8 years
0.49
0.48
0.47
Aviso Envisat (raw data)
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Sea level is rising at just
1.3 inches per century
Aviso Envisat (raw data)
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Hurricanes are quieter than for 30 years
A.C.E., 1972-2012: Dr. Ryan Maue
Extent and trend of global sea ice
are almost unchanged in 33 years
University of Illinois, 1979-2012
Methane concentration
up just 20 ppbv
in a decade
CH4, 2000-2009:
+ 1/350 C°
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
CH4 concentration, Baring Hd., 1990-2009
IPCC over-predicts global warming
High, medium and low projections (IPCC, 1990)
versus observed reality, 1990-2012 (UAH)
Temperature
change (C°)
Dr. David Evans (2011)
1995
2000
2005
2010
IT’S THE SUN: changes in solar
radiance striking the ground
explain recent temperature changes
No scientific rationale for
predicting what’s predicted
The Drake
Equation
The Quack
Equation
Δ𝑇 = Δ𝐹𝜆0 𝐺
Δ𝐹
x 𝜆0
Radiative forcing 3.71 W m–2
x𝐺
Overall feedback factor 2.81
Planck zero-feedback sensitivity parameter 0.31 K W–1 m2
= Δ𝑇 Equilibrium warming 3.26 K
Δ𝑇 = Δ𝐹𝜆0 𝐺
Radiative forcing:
Unmeasurable
Planck clim.sens. param.: Unmeasurable
Water-vapor feedback:
Lapse-rate feedback:
Surface albedo feedback:
Cloud feedback:
Feedback multiplier:
Unmeasurable
Unmeasurable
Unmeasurable
Unmeasurable
Unmeasurable
Warming at 2x CO2: UNKNOWABLE!
Δ𝑇 = Δ𝐹𝜆0 𝐺
−1
𝐺 = (1 − 𝜆0 𝑓) = 2.813
where 𝑓 = 2.06 & 𝜆0 = 0.31
 Is the feedback amplification equation
the right one? This is the big question.
 Or is a homeostatic model more truly
representative of our planet’s climate?
25 K warming
20 K
15 K
Net-negative feedbacks: likely
Strongly net-positive feedbacks: implausible
Negative Positive
IPCC
fantasy
zone
10 K
0.42
5K
–0.5
+0.1
0.74
4.5 K
3.3 K
2.0 K
-1.0 -0.9 -0.8 -0.7 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9
0.50 0.53 0.56 0.59 0.63 0.67 0.71 0.77 0.83 0.91 1.0 1.11 1.25 1.43 1.67 2.00 2.50 3.33 5.00 10.00
22 K
20 K
18 K
16 K
14 K
12 K
10 K
8K
6K
The
process
engineer’s
limit
Dr. David Evans
IPCC
fantasy
zone
4K
2K
0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40 0.45 0.50 0.55 0.60 0.65 0.70 0.75 0.80 0.85 0.90 0.95
20 K
15 K
10 K
5K
–1
The
process
engineer’s
limit
Loop gain 2
0 Loop gain
The wrong
equation?
3
--5 K
--10 K
--15 K
--20 K
Homeostasis:
Scotese (1999)
Temperature has varied by 8 C°, or <3%,
either side of the 750m-year mean
An admission
‘In climate research and modeling, we
should recognize that we are dealing with
a coupled non-linear chaotic system, and
therefore that the long-term prediction of
future climate states is not possible.’
IPCC (2001, §14.2.2.2)
IT’S THE SUN: changes in solar
radiance striking the ground
explain recent temperature changes
It is more cost-effective
to do nothing
No policy to abate global warming
by taxing, trading, regulating,
reducing, or replacing
greenhouse-gas emissions
will prove cost-effective
solely on grounds
of the welfare benefit
from climate mitigation.
CO2 mitigation strategies that
are inexpensive enough to be
affordable will be ineffective;
strategies costly enough to be
effective will be unaffordable.
Focused adaptation is better.
The cost of the
premium exceeds
the cost of the risk,
so don’t insure.
Guevara
Bast
IT’S THE SUN: changes in solar
radiance striking the ground
explain recent temperature changes
The moral question
Hong Kong - 81
Japan - 81
Korea - 77
China - 71
US- 77
Indonesia - 67
Russian Fed. - 65
India - 63
Chad - 44
South Africa - 46
Life expectancy (years)
v. CO2 emissions
Africa
44
(tons per capita)
Africa
Sierra Leone - 285
Chad - 200
India - 90
China - 36
USA - 8
Child mortality
(per 1000 born)
v. CO2 emissions
(tons per capita)
Japan – 9.4
Iceland – 7.7
National
Geographic
‘When millions are going
hungry, it is a crime against
humanity that food should be
diverted to biofuels.’
Herr Jean Ziegler,
UN Right-to-Food Rapporteur,
2007
Sight
restored
for $8
48
OMNIS SPIRITVS
LAVDET DOMINVM
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