Climate impacts on UK wheat yields
using regional model output
Jemma Gornall1, Pete Falloon1, Kyungsuk Cho2,, Richard Betts1, Robin Clark1
1Met
Office Hadley Centre 2Korea Meteorological Administration
© Crown copyright Met Office 2011
Outline
• Climate impacts on UK winter wheat case
study
• The Decision Support System for Agrotechnology
Transfer (DSSAT)
• Methods and UKCP09 climate projections
• Results
• Validation
• Future projections
© Crown copyright Met Office 2011
DSSAT
http://www.icasa.net/dssat/
© Crown copyright Met Office 2011
DSSAT
• CROPGRO plant growth module
• Grain Legumes - Soybean, peanut, dry bean, chickpea, cowpea, velvet bean,
and faba bean
• Vegetables - Pepper, cabbage, tomato
• Grasses – Bahia, brachiaria
• CERES Plant Growth Module
• Grain Cereals -Rice, maize, millet, sorghum, wheat, and barley
• SUBSTOR Plant Growth Module
• Potato
DSSAT
Minimum Inputs:
• Daily weather (max. & min. temperature, total precipitation, solar radiation)
• Soil (albedo, water coefficients, N & P contents, evaporation, root growth factor)
• Crop genetic inputs
(coefficients related to photoperiod sensitivity,
duration of grain filling rates and vernalization requirements)
• Management options (planting date and seed density)
© Crown copyright Met Office 2011
Climate impacts on UK winter
wheat – using DSSAT/CERES
• CERES-Wheat
(Crop Estimation through Resource and Environment Synthesis-
Wheat)
• Dynamic process-based crop model, widely validated
• Used for site and regional climate impact studies.
• Temperature development
key role in vegetative growth and
• Environmental factors (water, nutrient stress) linked to plant
growth and development.
• Daily biomass production calculated using solar radiation
• Can simulate physiological effects of increased CO2
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Approach for regional crop
modelling.
• Used generic parameters for cultivar and soil coefficients
available from DSSAT
• Validate generic DSSAT set-up with UK field data
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Validation
(Rothamsted Broadbalk, 1999-2009)
Cho et al. 2011,
Climate Research
(accepted)
© Crown copyright Met Office 2011
Approach for regional crop
modelling.
• Used generic parameters for cultivar and soil coefficients
available from DSSAT
• Validate generic DSSAT set-up with UK field data
• UKCP climate projections (daily min/max temp., precip, solar radiation)
• 13 administrative regions, 11 member raw RCM data (SRES A1B)
• 30 year time slices (2020s, 2050s, 2080s)
• Assess uncertainties in future climate impacts using RCM
ensemble
© Crown copyright Met Office 2011
Current UK winter wheat
distribution
UKCP09 Climate Projections
Change in 30 y average (2070-2099), from baseline (1971-2000)
Min. temperature (ºC)
Max. temperature (ºC)
Precipitation (%)
NE N.E. England NW N.W. England NI N. Ireland NS N. Scotland WS W. Scotland WM W. Midlands Wa
Wales EE E. of England ES E. Scotland EM E. Midlands SE S.E. England SW S.W. England YH Yorks &
Humber.
© Crown copyright Met Office 2011
Future projections
• Development rate
• Heading date (average date by which a crop has formed seedheads)
• Physiological maturity (date of max. kernel dry weight = readiness for harvest)
• Yields
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Heading Faster
date development,
(days after
impact increases with time
planting)
NE N.E. England
NW N.W. England
NI N. Ireland
NS N. Scotland
WS W. Scotland
WM W. Midlands
Wa Wales
EE E. of England
ES E. Scotland
EM E. Midlands
SE S.E. England
SW S.W. England
YH Yorks & Humber.
Change in 30 y average, from
baseline (1971-2000)
Sowing date 10th October
N application 200kg ha-1yr-1
Box: 25th& 75th percentile
x Crosses: maximum/minimum
+ Plus: median
Diamond: unperturbed simulation
Cho et al. 2011, Climate Research (accepted)
© Crown copyright Met Office 2011
Largest impact
further north
Physiological
maturity
(days after
planting)
NE N.E. England
NW N.W. England
NI N. Ireland
NS N. Scotland
WS W. Scotland
WM W. Midlands
Wa Wales
EE E. of England
ES E. Scotland
EM E. Midlands
SE S.E. England
SW S.W. England
YH Yorks & Humber.
Change in 30 y average, from
baseline (1971-2000)
Sowing date 10th October
N application 200kg ha-1yr-1
Box: 25th& 75th percentile
x Crosses: maximum/minimum
+ Plus: median
Diamond: unperturbed simulation
Cho et al. 2011, Climate Research (accepted)
© Crown copyright Met Office 2011
Largest impact
further north
Yield
Uncertainty increases with
(%)
time
NE N.E. England
NW N.W. England
NI N. Ireland
NS N. Scotland
WS W. Scotland
WM W. Midlands
Wa Wales
EE E. of England
ES E. Scotland
EM E. Midlands
SE S.E. England
SW S.W. England
YH Yorks & Humber.
Change in 30 y average, from
baseline (1971-2000)
Sowing date 10th October
N application 200kg ha-1yr-1
Box: 25th& 75th percentile
x Crosses: maximum/minimum
+ Plus: median
Diamond: unperturbed simulation
Cho et al. 2011, Climate Research (accepted)
© Crown copyright Met Office 2011
Gains in north
Losses in
south
Conclusions to UK wheat study
• In all regions, temperature increases accelerated wheat
development
• Positive impact on yield, particularly further north; some
decreases in the South
• Uncertainties in yield production increase with time (climate
driven)
• CO2 fertilisation may compensate yield losses due to
temperature and rainfall
• UK production: losses in some regions may be compensated
by gains elsewhere
© Crown copyright Met Office 2011
Summary
• Use of regional model ensembles can provide
useful information to climate impacts studies of
crops
• The DSSAT software is a good framework for
these assessments
• If generic parameterisation is used some level
of validation should take place and results
should be interpreted accordingly.