Climate Trends in the
Philippines
²
Presented by:
Thelma A. Cinco
PAGASA
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April 2- 5, 2012, Indonesia
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PAGASA-DOST
PAGASA - Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration.
The country’s national meteorological and hydrological services (NMHS) provider
MISSION:
To provide weather, flood, climate and
astronomical products and services to
promote the people’s safety and wellbeing & contribute to national
development
Presidential Decree No. 78; December 1972 as
amended by Presidential Decree No. 1149; August 1977
The Philippines, through the PAGASA, is a Member of the World
Meteorological Organization (WMO), a specialized body of the United
Nations.
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PAGASA-DOST’s Observation Facilities & Equipment
5
Regional
Centers
NORTHERN
LUZON
(Tuguegarao)
NCR
(Quezon City)
SOUTHERN
LUZON
(Legaspi)
VISAYAS
(Mactan, Cebu)
MINDANAO
(Cagayan de Oro)
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58 Synoptic stations
23 Agromet stations
80 Climat/Rain stations
69 AWS 10M wind mast
76 AWS 2M wind mast(ASTI)
75 ARG
381 total
6 Upper air stations
10 Doppler radars
(2 under construction)
2 Marine buoys
5 Telemetered major river
basins
3 Satellite receivers
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Highly Suceptable to
Floodings and Inundation
• Archipelago, composed
of low lying small
islands
• 70% of cities and
municipalities are
coastal areas
• Highly susceptible to
flooding and storm
surges
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Philippines has not been spared of the weather-related disasters due Storms,
Typhoons and very intense rainfall
ST. BERNARD
LANDSLIDE
Feb 2006
Landslide :Ginsaugon, Feb 2006
TY Milenyo, Sept 2006
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TY Reming (DURIAN) 2006
Typhoon Frank (Fengshen)
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June 21, 2008. (MV Princess of the Stars)
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How is global warming
manifested in the
Philippines?
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Philippines mean temperature
Observed Mean Temperature Anomalies in the Philippines (1951-2010)
Departures from 1971-2000 normal values
1
Difference ( C) from 1971-2000)
0.8
Annual mean temp
0.6
Smoothed series (5 year running mean)
0.4
0.2
0
-0.2
Period
-0.4
Rate
1981-2010 (last 30 yrs)
1951-2010 (60 years)
Years
-0.6
- 0.0164
- 0.0108
C/year
Source: CAD/PAGASA/DOST
-0.8
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Year
An increase of 0.65°C from 1951-2010 (60 years)
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Maximum & Minimum Temperature
Rate of increase almost 3
times higher compared with
the maximum temperature
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April 2- 5, 2012, Indonesia
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Trends in Extreme Daily Temperatures in the Philippines
Period: (1951 – 2008)
Trend in the frequency
of days with maximum
temperature above the
1961-1990 mean 99th
percentile
(Hot days).
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Trend in the
frequency with
minimum temperature
above the 1961-1990
mean 99th percentile
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Trends in Extreme Daily Temperatures in the Philippines
Period: (1951 – 2008)
Trend in the frequency
with maximum
temperature below the
1961-1990 mean 1st
percentile
Cool Days
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Trend in the frequency
with minimum
temperature below the
1961-1990 mean 1st
percentile
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Classification of Tropical Cyclones
1. Tropical depression - maximum sustained
winds is from 45 to 63 kph;
2. Tropical Storm - maximum sustained winds
is from 64 to 118 kph;
3. Typhoon – maximum sustained winds is
greater than 118 kph.
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Tracks of Tropical Cyclones in the Western
North
s. Pacific
Period: (1948-2010)
Tropical Cyclone Frequency
using 1°x1° (1948-2010)
s.
Visited by an average
19 to 20 Tropical cyclones
EVERY YEAR
Tracks of tropical cyclones that formed in the Western
North Pacific (WNP) during the period 1948-2010 (1641 TC
and 1154 or 70% entered or formed in the Philippine Area
of Responsibly (PAR) (Data used: JMA Data set).
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Trends of the number of tropical cyclone in the Philippines
Period: 1948-2010
Annual Number of Tropical Cyclones in the PAR
Period: 1948-2010
40
Number of Tropical Cyclones
Five-year running mean
30
Linear (Five-year running
mean)
Number of Tropical Cyclones
35
y = -0.0223x + 20.124
25
20
15
10
5
0
1948
1953
1958
1963
1968
1973
*Cinco,T.A.,et
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1978
Year
1983
1988
1993
1998
2003
2008
al.(2006).
Updating
Tropical
Cyclone
the PAR.,
Phil., Met-Hydro Congress 2006.
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Map of the frequency of tropical cyclone per decade in the
PAR Period: 1951-2010
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*Cinco,T.A.,et al.(2011). Updating Tropical Cyclone Climatology in the Philippines.
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April
2- 5, 2012, Indonesia
Map of the frequency of tropical cyclone per decade in the
Philippines
*Cinco,T.A.,et
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al.(2011). Updating Tropical Cyclone Climatology in the Philippines.
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Trends of the number of tropical cyclone in the Philippines
with maximum sustained winds of 150 kph and above
Number of Extreme Typhoon (150 kph and above)
Period: 1971-2010
12
Mean= 5.7 or 6 TCs
Frequency of TC
10
Neutral year
El Niño year
La Niña year
(10), 2004
9, 1987
8
6
4
2
0
1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010
Year
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Monthly frequency of T.C. entering the PAR and crossing
the Philippines Period: 1948-2010
250
Number of TropicalCyclones
Number of Landfalling TC's
200
Number of non-Landfalling TC's
80
67
150
77
88
100
87
46
50
0
126
130
30
10
17
6
13
9
9
18
11
34
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
0.5
0.3
0.3
0.5
71
48
Jun
47
111
Jul
Aug
Sep
3.3
3.1
Oct
44
36
Nov
Dec
Monthly
Mean
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1.1
1.6
3.4
2.7
2.2
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Tropical cyclone statistics in PH
DISASTROUS TROPICAL CYCLONE
DISASTROUS TROPICAL CYCLONE
(TOTAL DAMAGE PHP 1 BILLION OR MORE) PERIOD:1970-2010
Number of Casualties > 300
TC NAME
Date of Occurrence
TY_PEPENG (Parma)
TY PEDRING
TY FRANK (Fengshen)
TY JUAN (Megi)
TS_ONDOY (Ketsana)
TY_RUPING
Sep 30 - Oct 10 2009
SEP 24- 28, 2011
Jun 18 – 23, 2008
Oct16 – 21, 2010
Sep 24 – 27, 2009
NOV 8-14, 1990
Total damage
in Billion PhP
27.296722
15.552000
13.500000
11.500000
10.952198
10.846000
Increasing cost of Damage
TC NAME
Date of Occurrence
TS Uring *
TS Sendong (Washi) *
TY Nitang
TY Trix
TY Amy
TY Rosing
Nov 1-6, 1991
Dec 15-17, 2011
Aug 31 – Sep 4, 1984
Oct 17-23, 1952
Dec 6-11, 1951
Oct 30-Nov 4, 1995
Casualti
es
5101
1268
1029
995
991
936
*The passages of TS Uring and TS Sendong were
characterized by flashfloods.
MAXIMUM RAINFALL OF A TC
MAXIMUM GUSTINESS OF A TC
Maximum 24-hour
rainfall (mm)
Date of
Occurrence
TY Feria
1085.8 (Baguio)
July 4, 2001
Oct 21, 1998
TY Iliang
994.6(Baguio)
Oct 14, 1998
280 (Virac)
Nov 27, 1981
TY Trining
979.4 (Baguio)
Oct 17, 1967
TY Sening
276 (Virac)
Oct 13, 1970
TY Susang
781.4 (Baguio)
Oct 11, 1974
TY Wening
269 (Aparri)
Oct 27, 1974
TY Trining
760.0 (Baguio)
Oct 27, 1991
TY Trining
269 (Masbate)
Dec 15, 1987
TY Ditang
730.3(Baguio)
May 15, 1980
Maximum Wind
(kph)
Date of
Occurrence
TY Reming
320 (Virac)
Nov 30, 2006
TY Loleng
287 (Virac)
TY Anding
TC NAME
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TC NAME
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Observed24-hour rainfall – 455mm
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Trends in Extreme Daily Rainfall Intensity in the
Philippines Period: (1951 – 2008)
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IMPACTS OF ENSO ON PHILIPPINE RAINFALL
Legend:
Severe drought
impacts
Drought impacts
with major losses
Moderate drought
impacts
Near normal to
above normal
condition
Way above
normal condition
Potential for
flood damage
flood
International
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,
RED colored years are EL NINO years,
BLUE workshop
coloredonyears
are LA
NINA Climate Data Severe
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damage
years and BLACK colored years are NON_ENSO years
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Monthly Mean Rainfall Distribution
Neutral
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El Niño
La Niña
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Monthly Rainfall Average by Climate Type
Mean Monthly Rainfall (mm) for Legazpi City Type II
1200.0
800.0
1000.0
700.0
Rainfall Amount (mm)
Rainfall Amount (mm)
Mean Monthly Rainfall (mm) for Baguio City(Type I)
800.0
600.0
400.0
200.0
0.0
600.0
500.0
400.0
300.0
200.0
100.0
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
0.0
NORMAL 7100 12.1 11.7 29.3 92.3 354.7 436.4 838.4 911.8 581.0 461.8 124.6 23.7
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Neutral
16.1 14.6 40.3 99.9 354.4 459.6 777.1 907.4 639.6 258.1 162.6 20.1
NORMAL 7100 321.9 209.8 185.0 163.0 169.9 259.8 279.0 236.1 261.6 353.8 486.3 563.1
El niño
10.2 6.6 16.1 46.4 265.2 489.41025.7 847.0 567.7 364.3 64.0 24.0
Neutral
285.2 187.2 191.7 142.4 184.2 248.4 251.2 252.4 283.5 375.9 426.4 422.0
La Niña
13.6 26.6 45.4 126.8 373.8 460.9 476.4 819.1 537.2 603.2 157.8 37.8
El niño
245.4 119.3 122.2 105.4 126.9 223.2 284.8 252.3 252.5 226.2 420.1 419.4
La Niña
407.2 290.7 267.7 235.8 212.1 225.0 229.2 253.5 233.2 351.7 578.8 714.8
Mean Monthly Rainfall (mm) for Dumaguete (Type III)
Mean Monthly Rainfall (mm) for Davao City (Type IV)
800.0
700.0
Rainfall Amount (mm)
Rainfall Amount (mm)
800.0
600.0
500.0
400.0
300.0
200.0
100.0
0.0
700.0
600.0
500.0
400.0
300.0
200.0
100.0
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
0.0
NORMAL 7100 80.2 54.5 41.6 48.6 70.5 122.5 116.3 110.1 141.5 168.5 142.6 103.6
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
NORMAL 7100 124.8 99.8 92.3 141.1 176.5 207.7 148.1 181.0 184.3 178.3 135.3 103.5
Neutral
84.8 64.5 60.2 35.6 70.0 135.8 136.1 94.5 112.7 152.7 148.2 120.7
EL NINO
43.0 24.2 13.9 17.8 50.2 103.1 122.3 122.2 104.1 136.8 109.1 83.4
Neutral
114.9 80.8 66.4 91.9 125.6 164.6 134.0 137.2 177.9 206.6 214.4 136.2
El niño
87.0 67.2 45.4 80.7 203.2 220.9 155.2 155.3 171.7 182.0 133.2 79.3
La Niña
153.1 109.1 120.7 166.3 186.7 177.9 182.6 197.6 201.5 165.5 135.0 132.0
LA NNA
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135.3 123.5 99.6 134.1 184.1 182.4 171.3 164.0 161.0 169.1 153.7 124.1
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Climate Trends in
Manila
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Manila
Annual Mean Temperature (°C)
Manila (1901 - 2010)
30.0
29.5
Annual Mean Temperature
5-year moving average
Linear (5-year moving average)
Mean Temperature (°C)
29.0
28.5
28.0
27.5
27.0
26.5
y = 0.0201x + 26.513
26.0
25.5
2009
2004
1999
1994
1989
1984
1979
1974
1969
1964
1959
1954
1949
1936
1931
1926
1921
1916
1911
1906
1901
25.0
YEAR
An increase of 2.21 C from 1901-2010 (110 years)
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Manila
Comparison of the 30-years average of
MeanTemperature for Manila
28.5
Tempearutre°C
28.0
27.5
27.0
26.5
26.0
Manila
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1901-1930
1911-1940
1951-1980
1961-1990
1971-2000
1981-2010
26.9
27.2
27.6
27.8
28.2
28.3
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Manila
Rainfall Anomaly in Manila
Period: 1865-2010 (depature from 1971 to 2000 normal values)
2000
Rainfall Anomaly (from 1971-2000)
1500
Rainfall Amount (mm)
5 yr moving ave
1000
Linear (5 yr moving ave)
500
0
-500
-1000
1865
1870
1875
1880
1885
1890
1895
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
-1500
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Manila
Comparison of 30 years Average Mean Rainfall for Manila
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
1901-1930
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1911-1940
1951-1980
1961-1990
1971-2000
1981-2009
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Mean Monthly Rainfall (mm) for Manila
Rainfall Amount (mm)
600.0
500.0
400.0
300.0
200.0
100.0
0.0
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JAN
FEB
MAR
APR
MAY
JUN
JUL
AUG
SEP
OCT
NOV
DEC
NORMAL 7100
19.0
7.9
11.1
21.4
165.2
265.0
423.2
486.0
330.7
270.9
129.6
75.3
Nuetral
14.1
9.1
14.4
19.8
152.8
265.5
382.0
494.7
335.3
223.7
111.5
56.6
EL NINO
15.4
5.8
4.4
5.3
101.5
226.5
576.1
429.8
375.9
169.7
89.3
47.8
LA NNA
21.8
13.8
15.8
39.1
187.1
313.4
293.3
430.6
389.4
276.7
175.4
89.2
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Tracking the sky…helping the country
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