ARECS: ADVANCING
RENEWABLE ENERGY
with CLIMATE SERVICES
Melanie Davis, Climate Services for Renewable Energy
GEO European Project Workshop, 15th April 2013, Barcelona
CLIMATE FORECASTING UNIT (CFU)
ARECS:
Advancing Renewable Energy with Climate Services
Facilitate mid to long-term planning, investment,
WHAT?
and innovation for the wind & solar energy sector.
Advance the availability, accuracy & usefulness
HOW?
of seasonal to decadal wind & solar forecasts.
WHY? To understand & manage risks & opportunities of
future wind & solar resource variability.
M. Davis , F. J. Doblas-Reyes, F.Lienert
Climate Forecasting Unit (CFU)
ARECS – Seasonal Forecasts
Mid-term, operational decisions: Production forecasting;
Energy transport, balance, trade, maintenance; Extreme events
3 mths
ARECS
- Contingency plans
- Early-warning systems
1 mth
- Assess “load schedule”
- Mobilise resources
- Prepare measures
Image: Catherine Vaughan
- Instruction to power
plant manager, grid
operator, investor
M. Davis , F. J. Doblas-Reyes, F.Lienert
Climate Forecasting Unit (CFU)
ARECS – Decadal Forecasts
Long-term, strategic decisions: Energy Infrastructure planning (“Smart
Grid”); Renewable Investment: site selection, portfolio; Policy making.
Identifying areas that are most
vulnerable to climate variability over
seasonal to decadal timescales.
M. Davis , F. J. Doblas-Reyes, F.Lienert
Climate Forecasting Unit (CFU)
RESEARCH INITIATIVES
European Climate Services R&D
CLIMRUN: Climate Local Information in the Mediterranean region: Responding to User Needs
EUPORIAS: EUropean Provision Of Regional Impact Assessment on a Seasonal-to-decadal timescale
SPECS: Seasonal to decadal climate predictions for the improvement of European Climate Services
ECOMS: European
Climate Observations,
Modelling and Services
Horizon 2020
CLIMATE
National Climate Services R&D:
ARECS: Advancing Renewable Energy with Climate Services
EERA: European Energy
Research Association
ENERGY
GLOBAL FRAMEWORK FOR CLIMATE SERVICES
ARECS
Funding
tbc.(COST
CLIMATE KIC,
FP7)
FP7: EUPORIAS
GEO EN-01
CL-01
FP7: SPECS
M. Davis , F. J. Doblas-Reyes, F.Lienert
Climate Forecasting Unit (CFU)
CLIMATE FORECASTING UNIT (CFU)
ARECS OBJECTIVES
1. Identify the areas that are most vulnerable to seasonal variability.
2. Assess how the global forecast system can identify the areas in obj.1
3. Assess how well the global forecast system can reproduce the "observed"
variable at specific times from global to local scales.
M. Davis , F. J. Doblas-Reyes, F.Lienert
Climate Forecasting Unit (CFU)
Forecast skill maps to assess the ability to
predict wind resource variability
Ensemble-mean correlation of 10m wind speed for ECMWF S4
- one month lead Winter (December, January, February)
- start dates once a year on 1st November from 1981-2010
M. Davis ,V.Guemas,
F. J. Doblas-Reyes,
F.Lienert
M. Davis, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, F.Lienert,
CLIMRUN
WP7.
Climate Forecasting Unit (CFU)
Climate Forecasting Unit (CFU)
CLIMATE FORECASTING UNIT (CFU)
ARECS OBJECTIVES
1. Identify the areas that are most vulnerable to seasonal variability.
2. Assess how the global forecast system can identify the areas in obj.1
3. Assess how well the global forecast system can reproduce the "observed"
variable at specific times from global to local scales.
4. Analyse the future impact of variable renewable energy generation on
i) existing and new power networks and ii) energy investment.
5. Engage and communicate with end users to demonstrate the value of
seasonal to decadal forecasts in renewable energy decision making.
M. Davis , F. J. Doblas-Reyes, F.Lienert
Climate Forecasting Unit (CFU)
Operational probabilistic forecasts to assess
the risk of wind resource variability
3-month forecast
1-month forecast
Probability forecasts of 10m wind speed from ECMWF S4
- one month lead Winter forecast (December, January, February)
- start date on 1st November 2011
M. Davis ,V.Guemas,
F. J. Doblas-Reyes,
F.Lienert
M. Davis, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, F.Lienert,
CLIMRUN
WP7.
Climate Forecasting Unit (CFU)
Climate Forecasting Unit (CFU)
Quantifying wind energy yields, uncertainty &
value using energy & economic 'impact' models
M. Davis ,V.Guemas,
F. J. Doblas-Reyes,
F.Lienert
M. Davis, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, F.Lienert,
CLIMRUN
WP7.
Climate Forecasting Unit (CFU)
Climate Forecasting Unit (CFU)
ARECS END USERS
END USERS
BENEFIT
Resource assessment services / Insurance
Business opportunity
Utilities (power plant and grid operators)
Risk management &
improved operations
Energy investors
Risk management
Energy policy makers
Planning strategy
M. Davis , F. J. Doblas-Reyes, F.Lienert
Climate Forecasting Unit (CFU)
ARECS OUTCOMES
- Optimisation in the efficiency of solar and wind energy operations
- Harmonisation of resource forecast activities across all timescales and
industries
- Establishment of a basic approach to resource forecasting and
communications for solar and wind energy
- Stimulate new business opportunities in energy resource forecasting
M. Davis , F. J. Doblas-Reyes, F.Lienert
Climate Forecasting Unit (CFU)
Melanie Davis
Climate Services for
Renewable Energy
melanie.davis@ic3.cat
GEO European Project Workshop, 15th April 2013, Barcelona