General Finding in Heliospheric
Realm
Nat Gopalswamy
William Liu: Kuafu
• Kuafu A @ L1(Ly-alpha imager, Ly-alpha +
inner coronagraph, outer coronagraph); 3axis, 722 kg total; 130 kg payload
• Kuafu B in double Molnya orbit (auroral arcs,
vortices, turbulence) – anticipated
• Kuafu A in 2016; B in 2019 (Liu’s
recommendation)
• Surface to 20 Rs coronagraph (WCOR + Ly
alpha) only: Balanced Kuafu?
SPORT (Solar Polar Orbit Radio Telescope ) Mission
 The Mission:
 Main Objective: Imaging & tracking interplanetary CMEs
propagation
 Orbit: out-of-ecliptic (inclination > 73.45o)
 Attitude: 3-x stabilized
 Main payload:
Synthetic aperture radio telescope (with ‘clock scan’ scheme)
 Frequency:
150±10MHz
 Angular Resolution：
2º
 Imaging Period：
30~60 mins
 FOV：
±25º
 Other Payloads:
 Imaging Payloads: Heliospheric Imager, chronograph, XEUV imagers, + ..
 In-situ Measurement Package: solar wind plasma
detectors (both ion and electrons), energetic particle
detector, fluxgate magnetometer, low frequency wave
detector, solar radio burst spectrometer
Launch
Big Ellipse Transfer  Jupiter Gravity Assist
Sun
Solar Polar Orbit
Wu, Liu
(Babcock- Leighton type) dynamo based solar
cycle prediction:
(Proper) magnetic memory in
the dynamo
required
main diff.
(Proper) approach to derive
between two
the poloidal source from
predictions
observation
Tricky, important … problem !!
Generation of poloidal field: nonlinear effects to
modulate & Random effects
(Jiang)
Kinematics and coronal field strength of an untwisting jet in a polar coronal
hole observed by SDO/AIA
Huadong Chen, Jun Zhang, & Suli Ma
AIA 304
(a)
MF1(06:31 - 06:36 UT)
MF3 (06:36 - 06:40 UT)
10 Mm
The main results are:
 1. By tracking six moving features
(MF1-6) in the jet, the kinematics (axial
velocity, transverse velocity, angular
speed, rotation period and rotation
radius) of the untwisting jet are

1
obtained. v

1
1
4
k
m
s
(06:32 - 06:36 UT)
MF2
(06:26 - 06:29 UT) MF4
MF5 (06:33 - 06:36 UT)
MF6 (06:30 - 06:34 UT)
a


1
v

1
3
6
k
m
s
t

1

31

0
.
8
1
s
(
o
r
1
4
.
1

1
0
r
a
d
s
)
T

4
5
2
s
(
t
w
i
s
t

3
.
6
t
u
r
n
s
)
3
A

9
.
8

1
0
k
m
•
06:38:56 UT
(b) MF2
Time from 06:32:44 UT to 06:36:32 UT
2. On assumption of the magnetic flux conservation in the same flux tube, we
estimate the coronal field strength in the polar coronal hole. Our results show that
the coronal flux density at the heights of 10~70 Mm decreased from about 15 to 3

0
.
8
4
B

0
.
5
(
R
/
R

1
)
(
G
)
G. A formula of
fits our estimated data
well.
Also current sheet by Zhao
S.-L. Ma
• Comparison of CME and ICME fluxes (independently measured for 9 events; Qiu
et al., 2007):
- flare-associated CMEs and flux-rope ICMEs with one-to-one
correspondence;
- reasonable flux-rope solutions satisfying diagnostic measures;
- an effective length L=1 AU (uncertainty range 0.5-2 AU) .
GS method
Leamon et al. 04
Lynch et al. 05
P ~ r
Q. Hu
7
Prominence Signature in MCs
High Np and low Tp
Located at the center of the flux rope
Existence of
He+
Heating before and after prominence material
HELIOS Events:
1979DOY129, at 0.3 AU
1976 DOY 90, at 0.5 AU
1978DOY358, at 0.7 AU
Model
In situ measurement
SOHO
NASA
Remote
Observation
Gopalswamy
SpaceSciRev,
2006
Yao et al., 2010, JGR
8
Understanding Solar Minimum 23-24
• Characterized by a large number of sunspot-less days (No cycle overlap) and a
weak polar field strength.
Surface Magnetic Field
Latitude
MF Amplitude
• Meridional Flow (MF) amplitude was varied
from cycle to cycle.
Time
Polar Field
• A meridional flow speed which goes from
fast to slow reproduces the observed solar
minimum characteristics
• The strength of the polar field is governed
mainly by surface dynamics in the early half
of the cycle.
Overlap
• The amount of spotless days is governed by
the dynamics deep in the solar interior.
Nandy, Muñoz-Jaramillo & Martens, Nature, 471, 80 (2010).
Forecasting the solar minimum using kinematic
dynamo models
• Kinematic dynamo models have been used for the
first time to make solar cycle predictions, but the
two model based predictions are very different.
• The reason behind the difference is related to
solar cycle memory (Yeates, Nandy & Mackay 2008):
• Diffusion dominated: one cycle.
• Advection dominated: several cycles.
Diffusion dominated
Choudhuri et al. (2007)
Advection dominated
Dikpati et al. (2006)
• There are still outstanding issues regarding
magnetic flux transport:
• Uncertainties in turbulent diffusivity (Muñoz-Jaramillo, Nandy & Martens 2011).
• Lack of turbulent downward flux-pumping (Guererro & De Gouveia Dal Pino 2008).
• Taking these issues into consideration suggests that cycle memory is only one
cycle regardless of the type of model (Nandy & Karak, in preparation).
CME Interaction,
Lugaz
The “twin-CME” scenario
IT IS VERY LIKELY THAT SPACE-HARZARD
EVENTS ARE CAUSED BY “TWIN-CMES” WHERE
TWO CMES OCCUR CLOSELY IN TIME (9 HOURS)
FROM THE SAME ACTIVE REGION.
Recipe for
GLE event
1) first CME/shock setup
a strong turbulence
upstream the second
CME/shock.
2) open closed
magnetic reconnection
brings out driver
material which is heavy
ion rich.
3) the second shock
has to go through the
turbulence-enhanced
region.
Gang Li
This give us a very powerful predictability on Space weather!
AIMOS - Model conception
Atmospheric Ionization Module OSnabrück (http://aimos.physik.uos.de)
horizontal pattern: empirical model
based on satellite data and Kp
-> particle distribution on top of atmosphere
vertical pattern: numerical model
Monte-Carlo simulation
-> ionization of single particle injections
empirical model + numerical model
-> atmospheric ionization of full particle
inventory, worldwide, continuous from 2002
AIMOS - results
Accuracy
Benefits
AIMOS+GCM vs. measurements
here: electron density compared to radars
without
particles
el. density in high
atmosphere
compared to
radars
NOy in
lower
atmosphere
compared to
MIPAS
with particles
Kperp/kpar = 10%
Wimmer
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EP production chain
observations
DC, stochastic & shock accelerations
DC: E = 0.2 V/m (motion of B field causes an electric filed E~ vB) current sheet
~5000 km; acceleration in RC islands?
Stochastic: consequence of wave-particle interaction w – k.V = n.omega
shock: diffusive, shock-drift
diff: VsxB is the electric field that accelerates
April 3 2010 event: STA SEP flux an order of mag higher than in STB
Rouillard et al. (2011) use ENLIL to explain SEP variation
Lario et al. (2005) not all shocks accelerate particles. Seed particles is a key. M>3
always accelerate
Vainio model
propagation: diffusive, focused, scatter-free
Kahler 2007
Kallenrode & Wibberenz model very important (helios data & IMP data)
Jan Maik Wissing
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aurora
ionization
secondaries
bremsstrahlung (e)
cosmogenic isotope production
mag particles: 10 keV to MeV (deposit above 90
km)
• SEP reach down to 20 km
• GLEs even below
Wissing (continued)
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polar cap SEP events: ionization dominated by protons
Wissing and Kallenrode 2009
higher conductivity, chemical reaction – Hox, Nox, Ozone depletion
N2, O2, NO, O dissociated forming Hox and Nox
NO + O3 
Rohnen et al. 2005
North-south asymmetry: transport of Nox in the winter hemispere
SEP impact similar to UV rad over the solar cycle
Low cloud (<3.2 km) correlates with GCR
Markson, 1978
Singh, Singh, Kamra, 2004
Model: Determine particle flux above the atm; calaculate energy dep;
Wissing et al., 2011
• Good models for polar cap; not accurate in the oval
Ho (gang li)
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Sugiyama & terasawa 1999
CME needs to be around 5 Rs for producing GLEs
Drury 1983
dt = 3skdp/(s-1)u^2 p  need small k
Tylka 2005
Presence of preceding CMEs: All of the GLEs have
preceding CMEs (Li et a., 2011)
• Ding et al., 2011
Guhathakurta: SW impact
• 100 M$ satellite, 100 M$ power grids, 10 M$
communications
• humans in space, crew on passengers
• Cliver & Svalgaard 2004
• lowest lat aurora in 1872
• Biggest storm in 1989 March
• transit 14 h on 4 Aug 1972 9between two Apollo
flights)
• NSWP since 1995; NOAA SWPC;
Guhathakurta (continued)
• Flares (R5): X20 (once per cycle)
Nov 4, 2003: X28+, April 2, 2001: X20
• Storms (G5): K9, 4 per cycle
lowlat aurora, outage, pipeline currents reach 100s
of A
• SEPs: (S5) 10000 pfu <1 per cycle
• 9 events since 1976
• S5 and R5 are truly seldom; G5 less useful
• 1000 to 100000 times greater than X1 in stars –
10-20 days rotation period (Schrijver)
Alexi Glover
• satellites: particle, plasma
• humans: iss, future ip missions
• Lack of flares: build up of debris in LEO & reduced
orbital drag
• large gcr flux for crewed missions and some
sensitive electronics
• euro crews treated as radiation workers (high
latitude, polar flights) – legal responsibility
• Integrity of GNSS may be compromised
Lugaz
• Tracking CMEs to 1 AU, CME-CME interaction
YM Wang
• Source identification of Rise 23 CMEs – 19% of
CMEs missed by LASCO, similar to what
Yashiro et al. (2005) found.
• brightness is ppl to apparent speed  bright
feature = compressed solar wind
Suli Ma
• 11/32 stealth CMEs during unusual minimum
• speed: lower speed (50 – 100 km/s) compared
to the ones with LCS (Jan 1-Aug 31, 2009)
• a – small in COR2 FOV; not different
• Limb events do show EUV changes in the inner
corona
Suli Ma Shock
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6/13/2010 event
T ~ 3 MK
Sheath bright in 193; dark in 171
Bubble  flux rope
Vs 600 km/s; bubble 410 km/s
shock speed decrease: 600 to 550 km  a -1
km/s/s
• Flare 5:36 – peak 5:39 UT
• Shock coincides with the fastest part
• compression ratio: 1.56
Zhao
• Current sheet behind CMEs
Hu
• Grad-Sharanov reconstruction of MC structure
• Phi-r (flare) ~ phi-p (MC); Quantitative CME –
ICME connection
Shuo Yao
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Good review of CME substructures
Id three-part structure in in-situ observations
three case studies at 0.3, .5, .7 AU from Helios
Heating before and after the prom material
High Np, Low Tp (similar to prom), possibly He+ (Yao et al.,
2010) Solwind CME 600 km/s travels to .3 AU in 22 h (helios
2)
doy 90, 1976 0.5 AU; He+; heated plasma before and after
the cold feature
0.7 AU
All signatures observed
Solar probe plus, Solar Orbiter
OPgenoorth
• Interaction of CMEs and CIRs with Mars
ionosphere (MARSIS) – 12 events
• CME and CIR related dynamic pressure
variations; induced magnetosphere
• Kozyra talk; Zhang