Tracking Structural Development Processes
through the Inter-group Cohesion Index
John Cameron & Yih Lerh Huang
ISS
“All happy families are alike; each unhappy family is unhappy in its own way.”
– Tolstoy, in Anna Karenina
What is Social Cohesion?
“the ongoing process of developing a community of shared values, shared
challenges and equal opportunity within Canada, based on a sense of
trust, hope and reciprocity among all Canadians”
Policy Research Sub-Committee on Social Cohesion (Canada)
“a set of social processes that help instil in individuals the sense of belonging
to the same community and the feeling that they are recognised as
members of that community”
Commissariat Général du Plan (France)
Multi-dimensional
Belonging
Inclusion
Participation
Recognition
Legitimacy
Isolation
Exclusion
Non-involvement
Rejection
Illegitimacy
Jenson (1998)
Equality
Inequality
Rajulton et al. (2007)
Common values
Social order
Social solidarity
Social networks
Place attachment
Civic culture
Social control
Wealth disparities
Social capital
Identity
Kearns and Forrest (2000)
The ISS Inter-group Cohesion Index measures
“the extent to which there is social cohesion between defined religious,
ethnic, and linguistic groups, without degeneration into civil unrest or
inter-group violence”
Indices of Social Development: Project Overview (2011)
Indicators:
• Violent Demonstration
• Deaths in Conflict
• Inter-group Grievances
• Civil Disorder
• Internal Conflict
• Terrorism Risk
• Minority Rebellion Score
• Log assassinations per log capita
• Log guerrilla acts per log capita
• Log riots per log capita
• Terrorism
• Log terrorist acts per log capita
Only countries with complete data sets are presented (n=96)
Inter-group Cohesion Index Summary
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Obs
106
103
116
158
158
Mean
.5899623
.6572793
.5996492
.6093794
.5528531
Std. Dev.
.1009363
.0919776
.1341715
.0760247
.0854517
Min
.0000000
.3840644
.2491713
.3515432
.0800696
Max
.7447424
.8023122
.8744453
.7420220
.7008806
Includes all countries with a score for that chronological data-point
ISDs Mean Scores Weighted by Country Population, 1990-2010
Only countries with complete data sets are presented (n=96)
Adverse events and the onset and depth of declines
• 1997 Asian Financial Crisis
• Post-9/11
• ‘War on Terror’
Low Income Group
Peaked around 1995
Peaked around 2000
Lower Middle Income Group
Peaked around 1995
Peaked around 2000
Upper Middle Income Group
Peaked around 1995
Peaked around 2000
High Income Group
Peaked around 1995
Peaked around 2000
10 Year Change
cohesion Index
Peaked ~ 1995
Peaked ~ 2000
Mann-Whiney
test
-0.079
-0.140
p<0.000
Average 10 Year Change post-‘peak’
Peaked ~ 1995
Peaked ~ 2000
Mann-Whiney
test
cohesion Index
-0.079
-0.140
p<0.000
gdppc growth
34.6%
19.4%
p<0.000
10 post-peak change: gdppc vs Inter-group Cohesion – High Income
10 year change (2000-2010): gdppc vs Inter-group Cohesion – Upper Income
Only countries with complete data sets are presented (n=64)
Clubs & Associations Index’s correlation with Inter-group Cohesion Index
Conclusion
• Significant decline in the Inter-group Cohesion Index between 1995 and
2010.
• Some ‘regional’ differences in the timing of the downturn
• Greater resilliance in Cohesion scores and less impact on gdppc growth
rates in the 1995 cohort even when controlling for initial gdppc levels
using two approaches
• ‘varieties of capitalism’
• Small group solidarity as a response to structural insecurities
10 post-peak change: gdppc vs Inter-group Cohesion – Lower Income
10 post-peak change: gdppc vs Inter-group Cohesion – Lower Middle Income
10 post-peak change: gdppc vs Inter-group Cohesion – Upper Middle
Income