Understanding How Consumer Trends
Shape Your Market
Culinary Tides, Inc.
Suzy Badaracco, President
Toxicologist, Chef, Dietitian
Who We Are…What We Do
• Who we are:
– Private Trends Forecasting Think Tank – Staff = 7
– 2 Satellite offices – Washington DC, Tokyo
– Forecast work is created through military intelligence techniques,
Chaos Theory
– Background: BS Criminalistics, Assoc. Culinary Arts, MS Nutrition
• Toxicologist, Chef, Registered Dietitian
• What we do:
– Partner long term w/ food industry clients – side along Think Tank
– Look for patterns in Chaos to aid future strategy
– Produce custom monthly & quarterly reports for clients
• Government, Technology, Adversaries / Allies, Competitors, Research,
Flavor & Cuisine - tracked and forecasted specific to client
• Quarterly reports include updated 12-18 month forecast for each area
Chaos, Blips, Shadows, Trends
• Chaos
– Birth
• Blips
• Shadows
• Trends
– Tracking
Today’s Area of Focus
• Consumers
– Sentiment vs. Behavior, Drivers, Recovery Behavior
• Health Horizons
– Generational Concerns
– Health Drivers
• Flavor Horizons
– Meal Patterns, Settings, Preparations, Flavor Landscape
– Couriers, Ricochets, Rock Stars & Rising Stars, Orphan
• How to Play on a New Playground
– Headwinds & Tailwinds, Forecast, Suggestions
Consumers
The Generations: Age
The Depression Era
• Born: 1912-1921
• Coming of Age: 1930-1939
• Age in 2013: 92 to 101
• Current Population: 11-12 million (and declining rapidly)
World War II
• Born: 1922 to 1927
• Coming of Age: 1940-1945
• Age in 2013: 86-91
• Current Population: 11 million (in quickening decline)
Post-War Cohort
• Born: 1928-1945
• Coming of Age: 1946-1963
• Age in 2013: 68 to 85
• Current Population: 41 million (declining)
The Generations: Age
Boomers I or The Baby Boomers
• Born: 1946-1954
• Coming of Age: 1963-1972
• Age in 2013: 59-67
• Current Population: 33 million
Boomers II or Generation Jones
• Born: 1955-1965
• Coming of Age: 1973-1983
• Age in 2013: 48 to 58
• Current Population: 49 million
Generation X
• Born: 1966-1976
• Coming of Age: 1988-1994
• Age in 2013: 37 to 47
• Current Population: 41 million
Generation Y, Echo Boomers or
Millennials
• Born: 1977-1994
• Coming of Age: 1998-2006
• Age in 2013: 19 to 36
• Current Population: 71 million
Generation Z
• Born: 1995-2012
• Coming of Age: 2013-2020
• Age in 2013: 1-18
• Current Population: 23 million and
growing rapidly
The Generations: Personality
uncertainty
comfort
security
familiarity
discomfort
Cold War
known activities,
environments
Post War
focus on self-help
Boomers I
Boomers II
narcissism
largely optimistic
economic struggles
“I’m out for me”
skepticism -media /institutions
good economic opportunities
The Generations: Personality
lowest voting participation
“what’s in it for me”
pragmatism
children of divorce
caution
“lost” generation
Gen X
concern over family
technology wise
price driven
Gen Z
Gen Y
not brand loyal
not sustainability driven
involved in family purchases
skepticism
best educated
(++)
“latchkey” kids
flexible
very brand loyal
sustainability driven
style conscious
more ethnically
diverse
eat according to social cues
immune to traditional marketing
eat according to hunger
Influenced by peers, marketing,
not parents
Consumer Sentiment vs. Behavior
*Shows recession vs. recovery behavior
NRA- restaurant performance index h
NRA- restaurant performance index h
Consumer +
Black Boxrestaurant $ h
Commerce Dept consumer confidence h
Conference Board –
consumer confidence h
Consumer -
NRF- retail $ i
NRN-Millerpulsesame store $ h
Black Box –same
store $ h
NRN-Millerpulsesame store $ h
Black Box –willingness
to spend h
Census Bureau- restaurant sales h
Reuters – Consumer
confidence i
Black Box –
restaurant traffic i
Consumer Reports- retail $ i
3/13
4/13
Consumer Sentiment vs. Behavior
*Shows recession vs. recovery behavior
Conference Board – present
situation index h
Black Box –same
store $ h
Conference Board
– sentiment index h
Commerce Dept consumer spending h
Conference Board –
expectations index h
Consumer -
Consumer +
Conference Board consumer confidence h
5/13
NRN-Millerpulsesame store $ h
Saying One Thing…Doing Another
Conscious Lie
• Mis-represent what they
paid for item
• Buy something against
partner’s / parents wishes
• To hide embarrassment
• Anticipate correct answer
(surveys), leading q’s
Disconnect
•
•
•
•
Ignorance
Fear
Mis-informed
Sub-consciously
influenced
• Denial
• Cherry picked data
*American Express research:
Generation Y is more secretive and belligerent about money than baby boomers
Consumer Influencers
•
•
Texas A&M
Edelman Berland,
8095 Live
•
Mintel
•
Analytic Partners
•
SocialVibe
•
Industry Intelligence
•
Cone
Communications
•
FGI Research
• Children between the ages of 3 and 8 - advertisements
were more influential than parents
• 80% of Millennials want brands to entertain them, with
40% wanting brands to let them influence products via
co-creation
• 90% of adults ages 25 to 34 prepared ethnic foods at
home in the last month, 91% of adults with children
under 18 made ethnic food
• About half of 18 and 44 year olds base brand loyalty
on brand experience - video/online gaming, social
media and third-party expert information through blogs
and articles
• 70% of consumers actively engaged in social media
have made a purchase as a result of being connected
to a brand online
• 86% of US shoppers consider sustainability when
buying groceries
• 91% of consumers say they would switch brands to
one that supports a cause, and 90% say they would
boycott if they learned of irresponsible behavior
• 36% of consumers say Meatless Monday campaign
influenced their decision to cut back on meat and 47%
ate more whole grains
Consumer Apathy / Disconnect
•
InSites Consulting
•
RAND Corporation
•
NPD
•
Accenture
•
NPD
•
NPD
• Just 4% of all Americans aged 15 to 25 thinks that a
brand page on Facebook is a credible source of
information about the product
• Teen snack purchases were influenced by taxes,
subsidies and the presence of peers when buying
snacks
• Consumers are looking for products made with less
fats/oils, sodium and sweeteners, however, this has
little influence on a diner’s choice of restaurant and
menu item
• 20% of consumers switched the companies they
typically buy from, an increase of 5% over 2011.
However, 85% said companies could have done
something to prevent them from switching
• 80% of US adults describe themselves as “extremely
healthy” or “very healthy”, but only 20% have what is
considered to be a “most healthy" diet
• 52% of Americans said figuring out their taxes is
easier than knowing how to eat healthy, 23% of obese
and 44% of overweight consumers say they are not
trying to lose weight
Health Horizons
Generational Health Concerns
Cognitive Function
Cognitive Function
(Development)
Health Issue
Diabetes
Associated Elements
Generation
Vision
(Focus, Mood, Stress)
Cognitive Function
(Focus, Memory, Mood)
Digestion
Obesity
Immunity
Digestion
Obesity
Digestion
Obesity
Vision
Obesity
Cancer
Diabetes
Digestion
Immunity
Heart Health
Muscle / Joint
Cognitive Function
(Focus, Memory, Mood)
Gen Z
Gen X
Gen Y
Boomers +
(Millennials, Echo Boomers, Boomerangers)
Omega 3’s
Sugar
Fiber
Pre, Probiotics
Sat, Trans Fat
Breakfast
Caffeine
Fiber
Pre, Probiotics
Sat, Trans Fat
Breakfast
Sat, Trans Fat
Fiber
Pre, Probiotics
Caffeine
Breakfast
Caffeine
Salt
Sat, Trans Fat
Fiber
Pre, Probiotics
Omega 3’s
Vit D, Calcium, Mg
Breakfast
Health Trends: Drivers
Digestion
Vision
Digestion
Muscle
Fiber / Grains
Seniors
Joint / Bone
Calories
Mood
h Flexitarian
Cholesterol
Salt, Sugar, Fat
Kids
CVD
Satiety
Health
Organic / Natural
Trust
Free From
Sustainability
Menu Labeling
Apps
Unprocessed
Simplify
Benefit?
Health Claims
Convenience
Naturally Healthy
Food Safety
Energy
Acrylamide
Control
Prevention
Obesity
Diabetes
Seasonal / Local
Cognitive Function
Focus
Relaxation
Development / Decline
Obesity
Stress
Satiety
Sleep
Memory
Depression
Snacking
Kids
Dining Out
Portion Control
Flavor Horizons
Health Couriers
*Couriers shuttle trends in from neighboring industries / focuses
Kids Focus
Gluten free backlash
Pure, Simple
i Salt, Fat, Sugar
Health Couriers
Healthy Indulgences
Botanicals
Flavorful Health
Mindful Snacks
Double sided menus
Meal Patterns
Kids Meal Evolution
All Day Breakfast
American Regionalism
Daypart Disintegration
Seasonal
Meal Types
Vibrant
Perpetual Snacking
Fast Casual Copycats
Farm Branded Ingredients
Family Friendly Fine Dining
Meal Settings & Preparation
Translation
Inspiration
Factor
Settings
*Approachable, Family Friendly
*Vibrant, Inspired, Risk Taking
*Authentic, Rustic
Preparation
*Scratch Prep, Wildcrafting
*Adventure, Discovery
*Portion Size i, Portion Options h
*Seasonal, Regional, Authentic
*Fast Casual, Approachable Fine Dining
*Minimally Processed
*Rock Star Butchers, Millers, Bar Chefs
*Meatless
*Communal Tables, Shared Spaces
*Street Food, Underground Restaurants
*Pop-ups, Speakeasies
*Open Flame, Foraged
*House Smoked, Herb Infused
*Pickled, Fermented, Peppered
Wine & Travel Trends
*Couriers - shuttle trends in from neighboring industries / focuses
NZ
Spain
Africa
Italy
Happy Hours h
Speak-Easies Great Barrier Reef
Flights
Northern Lts
Sports
Chile
Space
Settings
Argentina
Regions
Rotating/Guest
Bartender
France
Cocktails
Sparkling
House blends
Petit Verdot
Muscato
Experiential
Scandinavia
Philippines
Sweet Red
Nepal
Asia
Vouvray
Burma
Arctic
Travel
Pacific
South America
Guatemala
Peru
Norway
Antarctica
Congo
Sudan
Middle East
Brazil
Sweden
Tasmania
Caribbean
Galapagos
Cuba
Ethiopia
Africa
Central America
Panama
Earthing
Themed
Iceland
Cambodia
Belize
Leap/Bucket List
Spa
Wine
Styles
Multi-Destination
Argentina
Jordan
Israel
Lebanon
Oman
Food & Flavor Landscape 2013
Familiar /
Historical
Macro
Seasoning
*Horseradish
*Zip code honey
*Citrus
*Smoke
*Chilies
*Pickling
*World Salt
*Chutney
Experimental
Personality Cage-Dancers
*Huacatay
*Nordic
*Flowers
*Ashes
*Flavored Heat
*Geranium leaf
*Sour/Fermented
*Miso
*Curry
*Hyssop
Fruit/Veg
Dairy
Protein
Grain
Beverage
*Culinary
*Grapefruit
*Oats
*Greek Yogurt *Wild Game
Cocktails
*Coconut
*Sardines
*Popcorn
*Micro-Distilleries
*Farmstead
*Citrus
*Quinoa
*Oysters
*Coconut
Cheese
*Berries
*French Pastry *Lemonade
*Artisan
*Offal
*Pumpkin
soft serve
*Lentils
*Ancient Tea
*Beans
*Roots
*Moonshine
*Ricotta
*Almond Butter *Multi-grain
*Chilies
*Goat
*Hand Crafted
Tortillas
*Kale
*Eggs
Cheese
Soda
*Waffles
Sensuals
*Muntries
*White
Strawberries
*Hibiscus
*Finger Limes
Tree
Huggers
*Lebanese
Yogurt
Bi-Polars
*Goat, Lamb
Bellies
*Bone Marrow
*Paneer
*Blood
*Skin
*Kimchee
*Plant Based *Fin to Tail
*Sunchokes
Dairy
*Insects
*Wild Greens
*Burrata
*Lethal
*Mizuna
*Savory ice
*Invasivors
*Seaweed
cream
*Salumi
Interpreters
*Chia
*Sprouted
*Black rice
*Freekah
*Global
Noodles
*Farro
*Grits
*Arepas
Type A
*Barrel Aged
Cocktail
*Kombucha
*Bubbles
*Vietnamese
Coffee
*Dessert Cocktail
*Sipping Vinegar
*Kefir
*Agua Fresca
Flavor & Cuisines – Rock / Rising Stars
• Rock Stars
• Rising Stars
• Soul Food
• Asia – Korea, Vietnam
• Central America –Regional
Mexico
• South America – Peru
• Middle East
• Africa – Egypt, Morocco, S. Africa,
Kenya
• Caribbean, Pacific- Cuba, Fiji, Tasmania
• Asia – Nepal, Cambodia, Philippines
• Central America –Nicaragua,
Guatemala, Belize
• South America- Ecuador
• Arctic – Denmark, Scandinavia, Norway
Pathways:
USA – Regional, Regional Specialty
Foreign Familiar (think Mexican) – Regional, Regional Comfort
Nuevo Foreign (think Middle East) – National, National Comfort
Other Flavor Factions & Their Parentage
• Central America
– Fusion birth, Parents = Travel & So. American flavor trends
– Costa Rica, Panama, Guatemala, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Belize, Honduras
• Asian Shift
– Courier birth, Parent = Travel
– Shift away from Thai, Japanese, Korean & towards Malaysia, Laos,
Cambodia, Nepal
– Shift due to rise in consumer confidence, risk taking, adventure seeking
• Caribbean & Pacific
– Courier birth, Parent = Economic recovery translated to travel shifts
– Cuba, Bora Bora, New Zealand, Tasmania, Fiji, French Polynesia
– Travel here signals luxury, time h, $$, playfulness
• Arctic
– Fusion birth, Parents = Travel, Economic Recovery
– Cross ties Arctic & EU – Antarctica, Nepal, Lapland, Iceland, Norway,
Scandinavia, Finland, Netherlands, Ukraine
– Travel here signals solitude, bravery, $$, fearlessness, curiosity, exploration
Nordic: 1/11-3/13
Wine Ind.
Packaging
Bakery
Food Mnft./RCA/IFT/ASTA
*Birth
Family / Quick Serve
Restaurants
Travel Ind.
Hi-End Restaurant/
Celebrity Chef
Universities
Diet Ind.
Bars/Cocktails
Governments
Industry Mags
Hollywood
TV/News Mags
Book Publishers
Consumer Mags
Cosmetics /
Beauty
Grocery
Pharmaceutical
Consumer
AMA
AACC
ADA
Biotech
How to Play on a Changing Playground
Consumer Drivers - Recovery
Recession Rejection
Portion Options
Wellness=Quality
Cost / Value Co-exist
Resilience
Brands=Value
Deal Chic
Men Evolve
Kids
Optimism Mobile Relationships
Economy
Pure
Risk Taking
Health
Snacking
Family Meals
Simplicity
Motivation
FOP
Playfulness
Drivers
Legacy
Authenticity
Value
Control, Safety
Escapism
Reassurance
Sustainability
Invigorating
Indigenous
Accountability
Never Eat Alone
Brands
Animal Rights
Stability Seasonal
GMO
Re-commerce
Green Verification
Affordable Green
Red Herrings
Red Herring
Re-Focus
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Diabetes (low GI)
Brands make comeback, Brands = Value
Whole food, Nutrient density, Pure
Rock star butchers, Bar chefs, Farmers
Global Comfort, Playfulness, Adventure, Risk
Butcher, Baker, Agri, Renegade, YouTube Chef
Convenience
Trade off
Recession Rejection, Resilience, Value (not $)
Global, Seasonal
Gluten free
Private Label
Functional Food
Rock star chefs
Comfort Food
“Foodies”
Budget
Trade down
Frugality
Local
Consumer Behavior: Recovery Forecast
Factor
Food & Flavor
•Efficiency
•Value
•Ease
•Worth
•Educate
•Explore
Time i
Income h
•Return to restaurants
•Coupon use i
•Convenience trumps
budget
•Value trumps budget
Inspiration
Spending
Translation
Cause
Priorities
•Brands rebound
•Travel abroad h
•Green spending h
•Organic rebounds
Fear i
•Desserts in spotlight
•Exotic, experimental
trumps comfort
•Luxury, Indulgence rebound
•Playfulness, risk returns
•Wine varietals,
•Trade off trumps trade down
regions h
Forecast: 12-18 months
 Convenience Store new competition for Grocery, QSR, Fast Casual
 Restaurant performance, consumer confidence continue upward swing
 Breakfast is mealtime to watch for signals of economic recovery
– Breakfast traffic h = sign that economy h
 Vegetarian / Flexitarian #s will be linked directly to sustainability, obesity
– Sustainability & Obesity h = expect Veg / Flex h
 Flavors / cuisines- more extreme, adventurous items as recovery unfolds
 Wines will cross borders to unfamiliar regions, varietals
 Beverages regionalize
 Vegetable/seasonings demonstrate consumer experimentation vs. caution
 Beverage, meat, dessert categories act as barometers for consumer mood
– Cocktails, craft beer, wine $ h, desserts h, insect eating = recovery behavior
– Cheap domestic beer, wine $ i, cocktails i, desserts i, meatloaf = recession behavior
Suggestions
 Know the birth and lifecycle of a trend prior to deciding to
enter so you can foretell how to navigate it
 Neither love nor hate a trend – emotions will fog the
trend’s true pattern and you may be blindsided when it
shifts
 Spend more time researching a trend’s personality and
trajectory than worrying about what your competitors are
doing – after all, they may be idiots
Thank You!
Culinary Tides, Inc.
Suzy Badaracco
President
www.culinarytides.com
sbadaracco@culinarytides.com
https://twitter.com/sbadaracco
(503) 880-4682