towards an Open Humanitarian Risk Index
A comprehensive, widely-accepted and open evidence base with which to reach
common understanding and coordinated action
Tony Craig, co-chair IASC Sub Working Group on Preparedness
Tom De Groeve, Joint Research Centre of the European Commission
OHRI
towards an Open Humanitarian Risk Index
Open Humanitarian Risk Index
A shared, transparent humanitarian risk index
with global coverage,
regional / sub-national detail and
seasonal variation
22 May 2013
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OHRI
towards an Open Humanitarian Risk Index
Why do we need an Open Humanitarian Risk Index?
Goals
• OHRI will help
 humanitarians, donors, member states
Objectives
• Support DRR, funding and readiness
decisions with evidence
and other actors
 focus DRR and emergency readiness
• Complement existing
 on a common risk picture
 risk-focused early warning at the IASC
SWG for Preparedness
• OHRI will be open
 needs assessments in ECHO and other
 with all data and methods available
organisations
free online
• Enable regional / sub-national
perspective
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OHRI
towards an Open Humanitarian Risk Index
5 principles
• Global coverage
• Continuity
 datasets with broad global coverage
 international standards for the
 five years of historical data
• Transparency
calculation of missing values
 methodology and data sources will be
 future development will aim for
published and available for review
subnational analysis
• Flexibility
• Openness
 a standalone model to establish a
 evidence collectively gathered
common, basic understanding of risk
 owned by the public, agencies,
 provide a framework for incorporating
governments, NGOs and academia,
additional components to allow for
 Participation of agencies that generate
more nuanced analysis of specific issues
much of the source data
or geographic regions.
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OHRI
towards an Open Humanitarian Risk Index
Current partners
• OCHA
• ECHO
• UNICEF
• DFID (UK)
• WFP
• JRC
• UNHCR
• ISDR
• WHO
• Interested
• FAO
 World Economic Forum, World Bank
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OHRI
towards an Open Humanitarian Risk Index
Risk Model
• Based on previous work
• Model
 Global Focus Model (OCHA)
 Multiplicative model
• 2006-2013
 Hazard: natural and man-made
 Global Needs Assessment (ECHO)
 Vulnerability: population
• 2004-2013
 Capacity: emergency management
• Based on available data
x
 Mostly provided by partners (e.g.
refugees, health, children)
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x
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OHRI
towards an Open Humanitarian Risk Index
Statistical soundness
• Joint Research Center of the European
Commission
• Issues
 Database implementation
 Multiplicative model
 Geometric average versus arithmetic
 Statistical audit
average
• Also for HDI etc.
 Weights and implicit weights
 Basket independent normalization
 Missing data handling
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OHRI
towards an Open Humanitarian Risk Index
Seasonal risk index
• Hazard
 Seasons: cyclone,
monsoon
 El Nino, ENSO
• Vulnerability
 Crop seasons, migration
patterns
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OHRI
towards an Open Humanitarian Risk Index
Regional / sub-national risk index
• Selected countries or
regions
 In collaboration with
countries
• Same overall
methodology as global
 Substitution of subindicators allowed
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OHRI
towards an Open Humanitarian Risk Index
Additional component: Crisis Index
• Goal: continuous update of the OHRI
requires up-to-date data
• How is this used?
 Not used in standard OHRI
 Used in specific versions of
• Fastest changing data are:
methodology (e.g. ECHO’s Global Needs
 Natural Hazards (recent disasters)
Assessment, which emphasizes new and
 Human Hazards (new conflicts)
ongoing hazards)
 Refugee / IDP population
Crisis Index
Conflict
Refugees / IDPs
Recent disasters
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OHRI
towards an Open Humanitarian Risk Index
Timeline… time to join?
• October 2012: conceived by core
group, joining initiatives at UN and in
European Commission
• January 2013: proof of concept,
analysis of correlation of existing
models
• March 2013: first model
Please talk to us to participate
• June-August 2013: building
partnerships and collecting support
• October 2013: technical meeting,
early results
• January 2014: First publication of
OHRI
• May 2013: public presentation of
initiative at Global Platform
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OHRI
towards an Open Humanitarian Risk Index
Web site and Contacts
ohri.jrc.ec.europa.eu
IASC SWG on Preparedness: Co-chairs
anthony.craig@wfp.org
mlepechoux@unicef.org
Joint Research Centre (technical contact point)
tom.de-groeve@jrc.ec.europa.eu
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OHRI