Gas Supply and Transportation Issues: Gas to Power Demand Dr. David Ige Group Executive Director, Gas & Power Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation November 28, 2011 Outline Gas Sector Aspirations Gas Supply Options Infrastructure Update Gas to Power Status Conclusion 2 Overview of the Nigerian Gas Industry Gas Resource Base Nigeria has a huge economic potential trapped in this vast natural gas resource Proven Natural Gas Reserves, 2010 1,800 1,680 1,600 1,400 Trillion cubic feet 1,200 1,046 1,000 899 800 600 400 265 200 263 245 199 187 176 159 - 600TCF Undiscovered Potential Source: EU Energy Portal; Transparency International, 2011 Report on Oil and Gas Companies 3 Gas Strategy and Anchor Sectors STRATEGIC FRAMEWORK FOR NIGERIAN GAS GAS TO POWER GAS BASED INDUSTRIALISATION “… By 2014, we would have positioned Nigeria firmly as the undisputed regional hub for gas-based industries such as fertilizer, petrochemicals and methanol.” • Significantly increase gas supply to the Power Sector • Focused delivery plan to support existing and ongoing power plants by PHCN and NIPP • Deliver Gas for at least 12GW by 2015 Deliver on President’s Gas Revolution Agenda to: • Position Nigeria as the regional hub for gas-based industries such as fertilizer, petrochemical and methanol • Transform gas sector to value adding sector HIGH VALUE EXPORT LNG Regional Pipelines Consolidate Nigeria’s position and market share in high value export markets • Targeted LNG export opportunities • Regional gas pipelines that help consolidate nation’s footprint and influence 4 Gas Consumption and Demand Forecast Based on the forecast growth in domestic gas demand, we foresee opportunities in transmission and marketing Nigeria’s Historical and Projected Gas Demand 4,500 4,000 3,500 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 mmscf 3,000 Year Power LDC GBI WAGP 5 Enabling Sector Policy – Stimulating Supply To support the agenda, a set of enabling policies were approved by His Excellency, Dr. Goodluck Jonathan. These are being rolled out and have created a major boost and jumpstart for the sector’s agenda Scalable Gas Infrastructure Blueprint 6 Outline Gas Sector Aspirations Gas Supply Options Infrastructure Update Gas to Power Status Conclusion 7 Gas Availability - Sources of Gas in Domestic Market 3 Sources of Gas in Nigeria FGN Mandated Domestic Supply Obligations (DSO) Most significant short/medium term planned source of gas Allocation of available gas from DSO sources managed by GACN Direct Bilateral Arrangement between Suppliers and Buyers Unutilized Gas Flares Gas from suppliers over and above their Small flared gas for which no plan exists respective DSO Managed bilaterally on a willing buyer, to utilize but 3rd party players may propose utilization plans willing seller basis i.e. negotiated terms Limited volume in the short term, particularly from IOCs. 8 Domestic Supply Obligation – Western Area Supply Projects 5 4 3 2 1 1 Dry Gas 2 Existing Wet Gas 3 Ongoing Projects - Wet Gas 4 FID Acceleration - Wet Gas 5 Gas from East 9 Domestic Supply Obligation – Eastern Area Supply Projects 10 Analysis of Stranded Gas in the East A significant amount of gas is stranded currently in the East mainly due to infrastructure and the delays in NIPP power plants 11 Strategy Aggregator Company: Gas Aggregation Company Nigeria (GACN) GACN was established to manage the Domestic Supply Obligations – Facilitate gas access and aggregation of gas pricing Gas Aggregation Company Nigeria (GACN) Contact Details: Office: #1B Malcolm Fraser Street, Asokoro, Abuja Telephone: 098759045 Email: info@gacn-nigeria.com 12 Outline Gas Sector Aspirations Gas Supply Options Infrastructure Update Gas to Power Status Conclusion 13 Map showing critical Infrastructures Kaduna Abuja Geregu Olorunshogo Omotosho Ihovbor Oben Egbin Koko Port Sapele Ob/Ob Afam Delta IV Escravos Utorogu Calabar Bonny LNG 14 Status of Major Infrastructure Projects 15 Western Network Pipeline System Olorunshogo Permanent Line • 24”permanent line to Olorunshogo. • Recent contract approval by Mr. P and contractor being mobilized. Due Apr 2012 • Will address pressure problem at Olorunsogo Looping ELPS C Doubling capacity to 2bcf/d from Warri to lagos Due August 2012 Pipes expected in October ELPS A Escravos to Warri expansion from 300mmcf/d to 600mmcf/d Will allow immediate addition of 80mmcf/d from Escravos Due end 2011 16 Eastern Network Pipeline System Completion of the NOPL pipeline in 2012 will unlock stranded gas from MPN (100mmcf/d); NAOC Ebocha (50mmcf/d) and TEPNG (60mmcf/d), bringing them to Obigbo Node hub from where Alaoji and other Eastern Power plants can be supplied 17 Eastern Network Pipeline System 18 Ongoing Pipeline Projects –ELPS Phase 1 Horizontal Directional Drilling Operation across Warri – Benin Express way Lowering of welded line pipes at NGC Right of Way through Jesse, Delta State Welding activities for Ethiope River Crossing 19 Ongoing Pipeline Projects –Alaoji, Olorunshogo Pipe stacked on Site ROW Clearing Offloading pipe on site 20 Roadmap to Securing Alternative Funding for Pipelines Sept 2011 Assess Pipeline Tariff Dec 2011 Review Tariff Affordability Jan 2012 Review revenue securitisation Jun 2012 Source for Investors Dec 2012 Secure Financial Closure Description Assessment of pipeline tariff required to make 3rd party financing viable – this study now completed by NNPC Engagement of stakeholders (e.g. NERC) on affordability of tariff and implication for medium-term MYTO Checking of possible tariff revenue securitisation to make 3rd party financing bankable Road show to attract investors / financiers, selection of willing financiers/investors Investors secure financial closure 21 Outline Gas Sector Aspirations Gas Supply Options Infrastructure Update Gas to Power Status Conclusion 22 Gas to Power Our efforts in Power are focused on meeting a projected 3.5 bcf/d of gas demand by over 30 existing and proposed power plants. 1 PHCN 818 mmscfd • • • • • Egbin + AES Delta IV Sapele Olorunshogo Omotosho • Geregu • Afam I-V Power Sector Gas Demand PHCN NIPP JV IPP 3rd Party IPP 3500 3 NIPP 1,297 mmscfd • • • • • Olorunshogo Sapele Geregu Omotosho Ihovbor • • • • • JV IPP 322 mmscfd • • • • • Chevron Agura NAOC, Okpai Total, Obite Shell, Afam VI ExxonMobil, QIT Egbema Gbaran Omoku Alaoji Calabar 3000 2500 mmscfd 2 2000 1500 1000 500 4 3rd Party IPP 531 mmscfd Numerous 3rd party IPP in consultation with the Bulk Trader 0 Q4 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 23 Gas to Power Supply Outlook 24 New Gas Sources of Gas to Bridge Gap New sources of gas, hitherto not considered for domestic market e.g. bringing offshore PSC gas to shore, are being evaluated. This could add 400-500 mmscf/d by 2016/17 1 Erha Bosi - Development of offshore processing plant with offshore pipeline to transport about 400mmscfd of gas currently being re-injected to the western CPF in Koko. Koko 2 1 CAMAC Oyo Field Development – Following options are being looked to monetized the currently re-injected 100-200mmscfd gas in Oyo field : a. Offshore pipeline from Oyo to the western CPF in Koko b. Offshore pipeline to ELPS via Chevron Okan gas processing plant c. Offshore pipeline to OGGS 2 25 Outline Gas Sector Aspirations Gas Supply Options Infrastructure Update Gas to Power Status Conclusion 26 Conclusion We have an enabling policy framework is in place to support critical mass of gas supply development for the power sector Very good progress being made in development of a robust gas grid that will enable rapid growth of supply from diverse sources increasing the liquidity of supply Medium term outlook is promising and power sector investors can be assured of supply 27 APPENDIX 28 Role of GACN in Domestic Gas Market Was created to manage Domestic Gas Supply obligations volumes First point of contact for Gas Buyers to access gas for domestic market use Primary aim Coordinate and manage wholesale gas supply from Gas Producers to eligible Gas Purchasers within Nigeria Ensuring a balanced growth of all critical sectors of the economy: Power, Gas Based Industries and Local Distribution Companies Conduct due diligence assessment on eligible Gas Buyers Allocate available gas from the DSO to credible buyers successful on assessment Facilitate the expeditious execution of the GSAA and GTA between the buyer, seller and transporter respectively Operational since Jan 2010 29 Due Diligence General Process 30 Map showing critical Infrastructures 31 31