Chesapeake Inundation Prediction System
Bridging the Gap from Forecast to Impact
Presented to:
MARACOOS Annual Meeting
15 December 2011
A Regional PrototypeCompany
System
for a National Problem
Confidential/Proprietary
What Emergency Managers Get Now
Current
Text
Storm Surge
Forecast
What Emergency Managers Want
Where will it
flood?
When will it
flood?
How deep will
it be?
How long will
it last?
What is the
uncertainty in
the forecast?
Forecast
Impact
From Forecast…
To Impact
MATURING TECHNOLOGY
•Regional scale atmospheric wind
forecast model
•Very high-resolution hydrodynamic
models with land flooding
• Very high-resolution land elevation
data (LIDAR)
• Emerging GIS and visualization
capabilities for integrated, highresolution pictures and products
Chesapeake Inundation Prediction System (CIPS)
Partners
Project Management:
•
•
Chesapeake Bay Observing System (CBOS)/Old Dominion University
Chesapeake Research Consortium
•
•
NOAA National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Forecast Offices
– Wakefield, VA; Sterling, VA; Mt. Holly, NJ
WeatherFlow, Inc.
•
•
•
Virginia Institute of Marine Science, College of William & Mary
University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science (UMCES) Horn Point Laboratory
NOAA NWS Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center
•
•
USGS Water Science Centers in VA and MD
USGS Office of Surface Water, Reston, VA
•
Noblis, Inc.
•
•
UMCES Chesapeake Bay Laboratory
CBOS/Old Dominion University
•
NOAA Chesapeake Bay Office
Atmospheric Modeling and Validation:
Hydrodynamic and Hydrologic Modeling and Validation:
Overland Inundation Validation:
Visualization and Validation:
Economic Valuation and User Engagement:
Data Management and Communications:
Company Confidential/Proprietary
NWS offices
WeatherFlow
Forecast
wind fields
Middle Atlantic
River Forecast
Center
Forecast
major river
discharge
VIMS
UMCES
Forecast
on-land
flooding
Noblis
Visualize
on-land
flooding
Guidance to brief
emergency
management
NWS
Weather
Forecast
Office
USGS
Validate
land
flooding
Transmit forecast
Transmit forecast
Retrieve wind field and
river discharge forecasts
Transmit flooding forecast
Retrieve flooding forecast
Transmit visualized
flooding forecast
Retrieve visualized
flooding forecast
Data Management System – NOAA CBO, ASA
Economic Evaluation - UMCES
CIPS Components
Veteran’s Day Nor’easter
11-13 November 2009
Susquehanna River
Baltimore
Annapolis
Washington
Alexandria
Chesapeake Bay
Potomac River
James River
Richmond
Hampton
Norfolk
CIPS Forecast
Demonstration
Nor’Ida Storm Tide - NOAA
CO-OPS Data Nov 10-13, 2009
Tue
Watch
Issued
Wed
Warning
Issued
Thu
Fri
Major
Moderate
Minor
Coastal Flood Watch
Issued 4 AM Tue Nov 10, 2009
408 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2009
...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.
A COMBINATION OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH AND
REMNANTS OF IDA OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WILL ALLOW AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHEAST
NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA.
THE APPROACHING NEW PHASE OF THE MOON...IN TANDEM WITH THE STRONG
ONSHORE FLOW...WILL LEAD TO INCREASING TIDAL ANOMALIES OF AROUND 2 TO 3 FT
ABOVE NORMAL...BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE SUCCESSIVE HIGH TIDE CYCLES LATE IN THE WEEK.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR FLOODING
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. COASTAL RESIDENTS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR LATER
STATEMENTS OR WARNINGS...AND TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT PROPERTY.
Forecast Impact
Nor’Ida Maximum Flooding
Flooded Area
All three forecasts
Two of three forecasts
One of three forecasts
Poquoson
Langley AFB
Chesapeake
Bay
Chesapeake Bay
Bridge-Tunnel
Naval Base Norfolk
Atlantic
Ocean
Norfolk
Portsmouth
Virginia Beach
Chesapeake
Company Confidential/Proprietary
10
Forecast Validation
Poquoson
Flooded Area
All three forecasts
Two of three forecasts
One of three forecasts
Company Confidential/Proprietary
11
Flooding Forecast with Uncertainty
Flooded Area
All three forecasts
Two of three forecasts
One of three forecasts
Langley AFB
Company Confidential/Proprietary
12
Flooding Forecast with Uncertainty
Flooded Area
All three forecasts
Two of three forecasts
One of three forecasts
Company Confidential/Proprietary
13
Flooding Forecast with Uncertainty
Flooded Area
All three forecasts
Two of three forecasts
One of three forecasts
Poquoson
Company Confidential/Proprietary
14
Flooding Forecast with Uncertainty
Flooded Area
All three forecasts
Two of three forecasts
One of three forecasts
Company Confidential/Proprietary
15
Flooding Forecast with Uncertainty
Flooded Area
All three forecasts
Two of three forecasts
One of three forecasts
Company Confidential/Proprietary
16
Flooding Forecast with Uncertainty
Flooded Area
All three forecasts
Two of three forecasts
One of three forecasts
Company Confidential/Proprietary
17
Flooding Forecast with Uncertainty
Flooded Area
All three forecasts
Two of three forecasts
One of three forecasts
Where
Jay Titlow
Lives
Company Confidential/Proprietary
18
Jay’s Home
Police Dept
Poquoson High School
Public Works Dept
Fire Dept
Flooding Forecast with Uncertainty
Public Works Dept
Fire Dept
Jay’s Home
Police Dept
Flooded Area
All three forecasts
Two of three forecasts
One of three forecasts
Poquoson High School
Company Confidential/Proprietary
20
Flooding Forecast with Uncertainty
Public Works Dept
Jay’s Home
Fire Dept
Police Dept
Flooded Area
All three forecasts
Two of three forecasts
One of three forecasts
Poquoson High School
Company Confidential/Proprietary
21
From Forecast…
To Impact