YASHDA
08/03/2013
Training Session
on Opinion
Building on
current issues
Dr.Shailendra
Deolankar
Post cold war changes in Indian foreign
policy
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Professional
Interest oriented
Focus shifted from regional to global
Emphasis on strategic partnership
Foreign policy become institutionalized
Engaging FP to protect India's economic and trade
interests abroad
The role of business community in designing FP
Objectives
Proposal to merge with commerce ministry
Core Indian foreign policy objectives
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Managing Afgn problem after 2014
Peaceful resolution of disputes
Protection of vital sea-lanes
Freedom of navigation
Managing china
To develop india’s economic power
To acquire defence capabilities to protect india
To forge partnership with other powers
Indian as Swing State
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India is a global swing state along with
Brazil,Indonesia and Turkey
Mixed orientation with two options- maintain
strategic autonomy and limiting global
engagements or to alter international order in
cooperation with US,Europe and Japan
Four characteristics- growing economies,strategic
location,democratic governance,neither embraced
new world order nor rejected it
Suggestions
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COMPREHENSIVE NATIONAL SECURITY POLICY
ASSERTIVE AND BOLD FOREIGN POLICY
LOOK BEYOND PAKISTAN
STAND ON GLOBAL ISSUES
OMNI-ALIGNMENT
POLICY BASED ON CORE-PERIPHERY,CONCENTRIC
CIRCLES
India- Myanmar
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Myanmanr has embarked on diversifying its FP and searching for
strategic autonomy
Attempts to reduce its dependence on china
Indian maintained distance and isolated from Myanmar on
ideological ground for a long time
Recognized importance began engagement to reduce Chinese
influence
Able to deal with insurgency problem in north-east India effectively
Engagement is also beneficial for the economic development of
north east India
Myanmar is gateway for India's economic engagement with ASEAN
countries
INDO-US
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India is not ready to act as a junior partner and wants
partnership of equals
Core issue- how to convert India from a friend to ally
The US wants to develop India’s capabilities and to
make India a comprehensive national power
India wants to maintain its strategic autonomy
Obama tried to reduce US’s dependence on Pak.Pak
has lost primacy as geographical and strategic
blackmailer
The US is encouraging India’s security role in Afgn.
Indo-US
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Four issues- nuclear, retail marketing, insurance reform,
defense sale
Partnership with US will help India to several security
and economic issues
America is huge market on Indian investment
Source of capital, technology and expertise
America is looking for India's sophisticated and cost
effective service industries
Indian interests can not be achieved unless regional
balance of power in Asia is maintained and US can
help in this area
Obama II Term priorities
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Shifting focus from West to East Asia. In the first
term US intervened in Libya,Syria.Now North and
South East Asia priority
To bring costly war in Iraq and Afgn to close
Pushing alliance partner to do more
Strategy to deploy small number of special forces
and selective Drone attacks
Constructive Engagement Diplomacy towards Iran,
China and North Korea
Issues in India-china relations
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China’s claim on Arunachal Pradesh and Kashmir
China’s tilt towards Pak in dispute with India
India’s continued policy to provide safe heaven to
Dalai Lama
Competition in space,missile,nuclar,energy sectors
India-china: War is not possible
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India of 1962 is different than India of 2013
Both the countries are now nuclear powers
Both the countries are in process of economic
development
Trade between two is close to $100 billions
Both are sharing several international platforms on
trade,environment, finance and security
Realization- more gain from cooperation than
confrontation
Constructive economic development will benefit both
Managing Pakistan
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Managing Pakistan through engagement
Peace talks need to be continued as a confidence building
measure
Peace talks benefitted a lot in last one decade
The liberalised visa and trade agreement are outcome of
this talk process
Trade has increased up to $15 billion
There elements in both the sides who wants to derail the
peace talks
Track II Diplomacy
Building international pressure on Pakistan on the issue of
cross border terrorism
India-Pak
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Building confidence and trust is must
Economic development is strategic priority for Pak
Liberalized trade and Visa agreement with India
People-to-People contact between
Punjabis,Sindhis,Kashmiries from across the border
to be encouraged
Siachin
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Glacier, north west India, adjacent to Karakorum
mountain line,74 km long and 8 broad, world’s second
largest glacier,
1947-48 war,1/3 part of Kashmir occupied by Pak,
karachi agreement, line of control was not stretched up
to Karakorum
Strategic importance increased after 1962’s Indiachina war
Connecting point between- POK-Aksai china.
Pak claiming demilitarization whereas India to draw
border
India-Bangladesh
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Extradition and liberalized Visa agreement
Facilitates Exchange of dreaded criminals-ULFA GSAnup Chetia, Assassinators of Mujbir Raheman
Will help India to control the secessionist activities in the
north east
visa agreement will facilitate trade and investment,
strengthen track II diplomacy
Both the agreements are beneficial for the economic
development of North East India
Benefit india’s look east policy
Minimize Chinese influence
India Nuclear
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Nuclear weapons are integral part of India’s national security
strategy
Serve India's national security and protect it from nuclear threats
India will retain nuclear weapons unless the goal of universal
disarmament is not realized
India’s nuclear weapons are not meant for tactical or operational
military need
India’s nuclear weapons programmes is not meant to disturb the
regional balance of power in India
India is committed to unilateral moratorium on nuclear tests
India is actively participating in the negotiations of Fissile Material
Cut Off Treaty
RELEVANCE OF NAM
NAM AS
POLICY
NAM AS
MOVEMENT
ATONOMY IN FOREIGH POLICY
DECISION MAKING
POLITICAL MOVEMENTCOLONALISM,RACIALISM,COLD
WAR,ARMS RACE
MAINTINING COOPERATIVE
RELATIONS WITH ALL
ECONOMIC MOVEMENTNIEO,SOUTH-SOUTH
DIALOGUE,NORTH-SOUTH
DIALOGUE
NAM 2.0
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Foreign and strategic policy for India
The report has been prepared by a group of
experts-Shyam Saran,Nandan Nilekani,sunil
khalnani,pratap bhanu Mehta
Three parts- opportunities, challenges and strategy
How to preserve India's strategic autonomy
Identified china as a prominent threat
Arms Trade Treaty
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The treaty does not have any provision to prevent
non-state actors
No mechanism to stop illicit transfer of weapons
from the state actors to non-state actors
It does not Military unmanned aerial vehicles
It also does not cover anti-personnel landmines
Omitted improvised Explosive Devices
Afghanistan
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The US troops will be withdrawn by 2014
The presidential election is due in 2014
Karzai not eligible to contest
Afgn might descend into chaos and civil war
Domino Effect on South Asia
Afgn should sign Status of Forces Agreement with
US
India is developmental role. Security role is essential
Suggestion: constituting South Asian Keeping Force
New Politics
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The protest on both against corruption and violence against women
heralded the new kind of politics
Articulated pent up grievances
Seek alternative and radical amendment
Playing the role of much needed corrective in the system
The anti corruption movement seek an transferency and accountability
The anti gender violence movement made police and their political masters
accountable
Media is playing prominent role
Public opinion has emerged as a fifth pillar of Indian democracy after
legislature, executive, judiciary and media
The role of middle class is imp
The politics arise out of empowerment process
Changing Concept of security
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From external to internal security
Non-security threats from non-state actors
Bleak enemy
No casualties of soldiers; civilian are dying
Role of army reduced; role of police force
enhanced
Human security
Human rights
Internal security
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Strengthening India's intelligence system with
creation of NATGRID
To amend unlawful activities prevention act
Establishing and empowering NIA
Modernization of police force
NCTC
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Need to be created
Terrorism is all India problem and there are cross border elements
involved
Core issue is whether to treat terrorism as a low and order problem
or national crime
In most countries it is national crime and they have devised national
policies to deal with it
In India it is a law and order problem and hence the entry of central
govt and military is restricted
The debate on NCTC revolves around the accountability factor
In US,UK,FRANCE the NCTC is accountable to parliament. The states
are demanding the accountability and involvement of state
agencies
Crime against women suggestions
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Recruitment of women in police and judicial system
To establish fast track courts
Special courts to deal with crime against women
Proceedings must be speed up
Zero-tolerance policy towards criminals
Let the accused prove that he is not guilty
Police to collaborate with academic and social
institutions
Naxalism
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Lack of effective and inclusive development
Alienation
Adivasis don’t have political voice,political party or national
level leadership
Violence is the only way of redressal
Soldiers died-J&k-64,NE-42,Naxal attack-319
It is not a secessionist problem-Army can not be used
Security and development approach
Comprehensive security
Strong political willpower
Effective governance
Naxalism
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The movement started for an honest cause, now
mutated
No uniformity- different layers-several ethnicities
and causes. Naxals of Andhra are different from
Chhattisgarh
Some committed to ideology, some taking revenge
against local chieftains or upper castes leaders,
some are depressed and oppressed youths
they follow guerilla or mobile warfare tactics
Naxalism
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Soft stand policy and absence of No negotiation
policy. No pre-emptive attack, it for tat policy
Three objectives: to stop combat operations
temporarily, get publicity, to release prisoners
Demoralizing effects on security forces
Development linked plan to tackle naxalism-201314 Backward rural grants fund-incorporated
Panchyat Raj system in distribution of funds
Hostage Crisis
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India not enunciated a uniform counter hostage policy which enables
security forces to immediately and effectively respond to the cases of
abductions at anywhere in India
This approach is in sharp contrast with that of many Western nations,
which maintain a policy of non-negotiation with terrorists
1989 rubina saeed case-freed after govt. released five JKLF members. The
kandahar hijacking of 1999-crisis ended with release of three militants
including Maulana Massod Azhar
the media does not give kidnappers much publicity, but in India the
reverse is happening.
Moreover, unless the government adopts a 'no compromise' attitude,
akin to countries like Israel and Russia,
There is enormous pressure on the government from all quarters for safe
release of hostages. Unless the society at large is prepared to accept the
consequences of a 'no compromise' policy, how can you blame the
government of being weak-kneed?" .
Hostage Crisis
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The hostage crisis should be treated as national crime and
should be dealt under the national level security strategy
The Parliament of India must enact an umbrella legislation to
deal with all variations of hostage crisis and situation.
The proposed national counter terrorism centre would help
to deal hostage crisis. The centre will facilitate streamlining
of different policies and methods adopted naxal affected
states to deal with hostage situation. A hostage crisis
management group under the purview of NCTC can be
created which will execute a hostage rescue operation
effectively
Capital Punishment
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India is one of the 39 countries who have voted against
the resolution banning capital punishment at UN
It is question of perspective how you look at the concept
of justice.
In India we look at justice from the perspective of
punishment. In the West they look at justice from the
perspective of fairness
Capital punishment does not deter crime
Judicial system is human system and is amenable to
commit mistake
Capital punishment is a manifestation of state
totalitarianism
Police, law and order
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There are two core issues - how to insulate police
from political pressure and Training.90% police
force constitutes constables and they are
undertrained.
Every state should have State Security Commission
which will lay out policies for police and evaluate
their performances
To create independent police complaint Authority at
the state and district level
Army and Naxalism
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Greater army presence in the Naxalite area as
deterrent mechanism
Establish army training camps in Naxalite areas
Army to involve in the development work at the
naxalite areas- can help people in providing
educational, health and drinking water facilities
Army to involve in retaliatory attacks
Army to train the para-military forces-especially in
Guerrilla, Jungle warfare tactics
Problems of Intelligence Services
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No separate law to govern conduct the CBI,IB and
RAW
No central law to govern these institutions
CBI created by an executive order in 1963
No independent standing. It is still govern by the
Delhi Special Police Establishment Act of 1946
Article 246 Centre can enact law on the issues
mentioned in the Union list
In US,UK Separate law to govern these instituions
Nuclear Terrorism
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Nuclear terrorism has emerged as a gravest threat for the international
peace and security. The world is under the threat of nuclear terrorism and
there is a definite risk of nuclear attack by the technically sophisticated
terrorists’ organizations
This issue acquired global attention in the aftermath of 9/11 terrorist
attack on US
The problem recently bubbled to surface after Fukushima nuclear accident
in Japan. With this accident possibility of theft of fissile material from such
crippled reactors by the bad elements heightened
There is a strong evidence to suggest that there are well established
connections between military and intelligence personnel of Pakistan and
these Jihadist elements(2). Several research studies published from 2000 to
2010 revealed that Pakistan's nuclear weapons faces a greater threat from
Islamic extremists.
As of now Pakistan is believed to have around 200 nuclear weapons and in
the midst of qualitative and quantitative expansion of its nukes
Nuclear Terrorism
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the A.Q. khan episode which confirmed Pakistan’s role in
unauthorized nuclear deals with rogue states and secondly the
multiple terrorist attacks on Pakistan’s defense establishments
which exposed inadequate security arrangements in Pakistan. It is
widely suspected that the terrorists must have got access to
nuclear weapons or technology through the Khan network
Pakistan are not adequately protected due to financial
constrains. Hence there is greater chance of falling either nuclear
weapons or fissile material in the wrong hands
any theft of a nuclear weapon could lead to a nuclear 9/11 type
attack on Mumbai or New York.
Since 2001 the US has provided hundred million aids to Pakistan
to safeguard its nuclear weapons. There were also reports in
media that the US is planning to deploy special security force in
Pakistan to safeguard its nuclear weapons.