Collaboration with ECMWF
on Land Surface Hydrology
Hannah Cloke
Department of Meteorology
Department of Geography &
Environmental Science
h.l.cloke@reading.ac.uk
1. Soil physics uncertainty experiment: ECMWF seasonal forecasts
HTESSEL land surface scheme
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25 member ensembles
variations on Cycle 36R4 - System 4 (S4)
Varying resolutions T159 / T255
4 month MJJA 1989-2008
perturbed soil physics in HTESSEL
atmospheric stochastic physics turned
on/off
Comparison to GPCP corrected ERA
interim
sensitive parameters are those which
determine how active the soil
hydrology is
Perturbing within known distributions
Cloke, H.L., Weisheimer, A., Pappenberger, F., (2012) Representing uncertainty in land surface hydrology: fully coupled simulations with
the ECMWF land surface scheme,
in Proceedings of the ECMWF/WMO/WCRP workshop on "Representing Model Uncertainty and Error in Numerical Weather and Climate
Prediction Models". 20-24 June 2011 at ECMWF, Reading, UK available from www.ecmwf,int
Journal article in prep
Sobol sensitivities to soil parameter perturbations for global regions
2m
temperature
Evaporation
Precipitation
Soil Moisture
Z500
2. IFS water cycle verification: Special Project & research sabbatical Visiting Scientist
Cumulative distribution function of river discharge correlations of ERA-Interim (red) and
ERA-Interim/Land (blue dashed line) with Global Runoff Data Centre data clustered by
continents.
> ERA-CLIM
ERA-Interim/Land: A global land water resources dataset
Balsamo GP, Albergel C, Beljaars A, Boussetta S, Brun E, Cloke HL, Dee D, Dutra E, Pappenberger F, De Rosnay P, Munoz-Sabater J, Stockdale T & F Vitart
Submitted to Hydrology & Earth System Sciences hess-2013-497
Also see ERA report 13 on http://www.ecmwf.int/publications
3. European Flood Awareness System (EFAS)
operational centre run at ECMWF
better preparedness and improved disaster and crisis management in Europe with transnational flood early warning information to EC civil protection (MIC) and Member State
authorities
Bogner K, Cloke HL, Pappenberger F, Scheuerer M (in review) Probabilistic Flood Forecast Combination and Integration in an Operational
Predictive Uncertainty Processor. Journal of Hydrology. Submitted
Wetterhall, F., Pappenberger, F., Alfieri, L., Cloke, H. L., & 30 others
HESS Opinions Forecaster priorities for improving probabilistic flood forecasts Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 4389-4399, doi:10.5194/hess17-4389-2013, 2013.
Demeritt D, Nobert S, Cloke HL, Pappenberger F (2013) The European Flood Alert System (EFAS) and the communication, perception and use
of ensemble predictions for operational flood risk management. Hydrological Processes, 27 (1). pp. 147-157. ISSN 0885-6087 doi:
10.1002/hyp.9419
Collaboration on Land Surface Hydrology
Research Department
Model section: Gianpaolo Balsamo
Re-analysis section: Dick Dee & reanalysis
team
Predictability Section
Monthly forecasting team: Fredrik
Wetterhall, Antje Weisheimer
Seasonal forecasting team: Emanuel
Dutra
Forecast Department
Evaluation Section
NWP Applications team: Lorenzo Alfieri,
Florian Pappenberger, Anna Mueller,
Konrad Bogner
4. Collaboration of other members of Land Surface Processes (LSP)
Group with scientists in ECMWF
- LSP group: Emily Black, Andrea Manrique Sunen (PhD student*), Anne
Verhoef (GES), Pier Luigi Vidale
- ECMWF: Gianpaolo Balsamo, Anton Beljaars
Topics:
- Parameterisation of skin conductivity in CTessel
- Comparing of C-Tessel canopy exchange with
that in JULES
- Derivation of soil moisture content from
Memberstate soil temperatures for model
verification
* Supervised by Black/Verhoef/Balsamo
Seasonal variation of diurnal skin conductivity
for Cabauw grassland
Comparison of latent heat for C-Tessel (red) and
JULES (green/blue) over Hyytiala forest (1998)