Presentation - Ned Dimitrov

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Maritime Drug Interdiction Through UAV
Surveillance
Presented by
LT Monica Schneider
LT Sylvester Campos
LT Mike Dickenson
Background
• US Counter Drug Programs
• Goal: Reduce the flow of Latin American
sourced Illicit drugs into the U.S.
• Interdiction methods
• Stricter Cross Border Control
• Supply reduction - Crop Eradication
• Primary source of Cocaine
• Bolivia, Columbia, Peru account for all cocaine
harvested in the world
2012 CBP Cocaine Seizure Statistics
• Coastal Border Sectors
• 24 Seizures
• 5,953 Pounds
• Southwest Border Sectors
• 457 Seizures
• 5,992 Pounds
Drug Traffickers Transport
Methods
Self-Propelled
Semisubmersibles (SPSSs)
Go-Fast Boats
Fishing Vessels
Container Ships
The Latest in the Drug War “Operation Martillo”
• Operation Martillo is a multinational
interagency and joint military operation that
combats aerial and maritime drug trafficking
off Central America’s coasts. U.S. military
participation is led by Joint Interagency Task
Force South (JIATF), a component of U.S.
Southern Command.
• Partnership of 14 various countries
Successes of Operation Martillo
• January 24, 2013 – Coast Guard intercepted
1,400 pounds of cocaine ($17 million) from a
smuggler go-fast boat
• April 26, 2013 – Coast Guard intercepted
2,200 pounds of cocaine ($27 million) from a
fishing vessel
• June 1, 2013 - $527 million worth in Cocaine
from 2 Speed Boats
Assets for Maritime Interdiction
• Support from 4th Fleet
• 4 Frigates Patrol in 2 zones (Pacific/Atlantic)
coasts of South America
• Coast Guard A/C and Cutters
• 600 Person Multiagency Task Force
• Partner nations contribute Patrol Boats and P3’s (Canada)
• 4 UAV’s
MQ-9 Predator
General Characteristics
Primary Function: Airborne
surveillance and target
acquisition
Fuel Capacity: 100 gallons
Payload: 450 pounds
Speed: Cruise speed around
84 mph (70 knots), up to 135
mph
Ceiling: up to 50,000 feet
Endurance: Up to 30 hours
Cost: $16.9 Million
Crew (remote): Two (pilot
and sensor operator
Tracking: FMV monitored by
controlling station or uplinked
with an asset.
Capable in low visibility (cloud
cover) and inclement weather
Intent
• UAV’s will be able to spot drug traffickers and
then report back to a command center, which
will alert the Coast Guard, Navy or authorities
from Caribbean or Central American nations
to take action.
UAV Search Graph
• Original Problem
• Cocaine & Marijuana
• All possible routes
• Max Flow
• Project Focus
• Cocaine
• Maritime Routes
• Max Flow with shortest
path properties
Network Model
• Max Flow Network Model / Modified Min Cost
Flow to force shortest path properties
• Nodes
• Demand Nodes - Corpus Christi, Miami, New
Orleans
• Supply Nodes – Equally Distributed Supply Nodes
along Latin American Coast (53 Total)
• Edges – All neighboring water nodes are
connected
Network Edges
• Each Node over water
Is connected by an edge
• Flow moving from
Supply nodes to
Demand nodes
Supply & Demand Nodes
• Supply Nodes
• Equally Distributed
• 53 Supply Nodes
• 625lbs each
• Demand Nodes
• Miami - 9,922
• New Orleans 9,921
• Corpus Christi 13,282
• Transit Nodes
• 329
Equally Distributed Supply
• Distance vs Profit
• Annual estimated
flow
Assumptions
•
•
•
•
Cocaine travels from supply to demand nodes shortest feasible path
Presently 15% rate of seizure of all drugs in the demand regions
UAVs are available to be on station 24/7
UAVs identify targets and tracks until forces arrive for apprehension
(never leave station after they are assigned best grid location)
• 100 percent detection rate of drug running vessels transiting through
UAVs’ station.
• Can not interdict within 60 km off US coast
• Each node is 1° degree of latitude and longitude
Analysis
• 33,126 lbs transported
from all supply nodes
Combined
• Node distinction
The “Interesting Questions”
• How much drug flow can be interdicted?
• How many UAVs do we need to stop as much
drug flow as possible?
• Marginal cost of adding UAV interdictions?
• At what levels can the program be fiscally
justified?
Interdictions
• UAVs can be assign 1 to multiple nodes to
survey
• Probability of detection is initially 1 when
assigned a single node and is reduced to 1
divided by number of nodes assigned
• UAVs never participate in apprehension
• Apprehension away from UAV station
• No Interdictions with 60 miles of US Coastline
• UAV yearly mission cost $18.4 Million per UAV
1 UAV Interdiction
Total/Change
• 11,328 lbs seized
• $133 Million
• 34.2% reduction
• Seizure Cost
• $1,641/lbs
• $0.54 Million/%
2 UAV Interdictions
Additional 5,625 lbs
• $66.5 Million
• 17.0% reduction
Total 16,953 lbs seized
• $200 Million
• 51.2% reduction
Seizure Cost
• $2,171/lbs
• $0.72 Million/%
3 UAV Interdictions
Additional 5,000 lbs
• $59.1 Million
• 15.1% reduction
Total 21,953 lbs seized
• $259 Million
• 66.3% reduction
Seizure Cost
• $2,514/lbs
• $0.83 Million/%
4 UAV Interdictions
Additional 2,500 lbs
• $29.5 Million
• 7.5% reduction
Total 24,453 lbs seized
• $289 Million
• 73.8% reduction
Seizure Cost
• $3,010/lbs
• $1.0 Million/%
5 UAV Interdictions
Additional 1,250 lbs
• $14.8 Million
• 3.8% reduction
Total 26,003 lbs seized
• $307 Million
• 78.4% reduction
Seizure Cost
• $3,538/lbs
• $1.2 Million/%
Patterned Interdictions
Additional 2,656 lbs
• $31.4 Million
• $6,927 / lb
Additional 3,144 lbs
• $37.2 Million
• $5,852 / lb
$/lb
Number of Interdictions
Number of Interdictions
Further Research
• Increase complexity by removing as many
assumption as possible
• Specific UAV parameters
• Joint coordination timelines/requirements/assests
• Refueling and replacement plans for UAV for
management of assets (time to station)
• Improve intelligence on drug smuggling
process
References
• “Just the Facts” A Civilians Guide to U.S. Defense and Security Assistance
• http://justf.org/blog/2013/03/12/operation-martillo-southcoms-counternarcotics-operationcentral-americas-coasts
• Statfor Global Intelligence
• http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/mexicos-cartels-and-economics-cocaine?older=1353501041
• 162nd Fighter Wing
• http://www.162fw.ang.af.mil/resources/factsheets/factsheet.asp?id=11932
• World Drug Report
Questions?
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