Global Insurance Industry Quarterly Spotlight Report Third Quarter 2014 November 2014 Agenda • 3Q Global Insurance Highlights 03 • Key Trends Spotlight Page 2 Non-Life Premium Rates 08 Global Catastrophe Losses 09 UK Non-Life Personal Lines 10 US Life Insurance Investment Returns 11 China Life Insurance Sector Cash-flow 12 Global Reinsurance 13 Alternative Capital 14 Global Insurance Regulation 15 Global Insurance M&A 16 Global Insurance Industry: Quarterly Spotlight Report 3Q14 Global Insurance Highlights Page 3 Global Insurance Industry: Quarterly Spotlight Report Global insurance stocks largely benefited from rising equity markets across all major markets, with life stocks outpacing non-life Global Insurance Stock Price Performance Segment Stock Price Performance Daily Closing Prices (Indexed, 09/30/13 = 100) Annual Percent Change, September 30 120 3Q14 110 12.4% 10.8% 10.0% 105 5.6% US Life 115 12.6% UK 16.0% China 13.8% 100 95 85 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 DJ Stoxx Insurance Index Americas 1200 Europe 800 Jul-14 Sep-14 Non-Life 90 All Sectors Asia 1200 US 7.5% UK 7.8% S&P Global 1200 During 3Q14, global insurance share prices across the major regions converged on the boarder market index driven by improvements in Asia, a moderating economy across Europe and increased sensitivity to equities among carriers in all countries − Asian insurance stocks benefited from a recovery from seasonal, weather-related losses in Korea, increased life insurance sales in China and an upturn in investment income from foreign sources among Japanese carriers due to Yen depreciation − Insurers across all markets have increased their investments in equities, real estate and infrastructure projects, resulting in a tighter correlation to equity markets Life insurance stocks increased at a faster rate than non-life during 3Q, with the UK life sector growing by 16% − Insurers are experiencing improved profitability through a shift to higher-margin protection products − Variable/unit-linked policies profited by stock market gains and continued de-risking activities across the industry Non-life stocks experienced more modest growth as the industry struggles to maintain profitability in the current market cycle − Limited investment gains, price competition, and reduced reserve releases have suppressed earnings − Efficiency gains, due to ongoing cost cutting activities and investments in process and technology improvements have helped mitigate the pressure on profits Source: Company filings; Dow Jones; ThompsonOne; Moody’s; A.M. Best Company; EY Research, 2014 Page 4 Global Insurance Industry: Quarterly Spotlight Report Coming off a favorable third quarter, global insurers face considerable headwinds for the remainder of 2014 Global Insurance – All Lines Average Analysts’ Consensus Forecast* Third Quarter Annual Growth – 2013-14 Gross Written Premiums (% Change) 8% − Contracting growth in the U.S. as GDP, which grew 3.2% in 3Q, is forecasted to grow 1.9% in 4Q − Weakening of the European economic recovery, credit challenges in China and fiscal tightening in Japan Net Income (% Change) 14% 8% − Concerns regarding the sustainability of the current 5+ year bull market 15% 5% 7% 3% 3Q Estimated 3Q Actual 4Q Estimated 3Q Estimated 3Q Actual A moderation in the growth of the global economy will pressure industry fundamentals for 4Q and into early 2015 4Q Estimated Growth rate excluding reinsurers An increase in interest rates, which is expected in early 2015 in the U.S. and U.K. and possibly other countries later in the year, should have a positive impact on investment income UK protection products should benefit from a continuation of strong UK housing growth – September 2014 prices increased 12.1%, the highest rate since 2007 UK annuity sales will be challenged by the elimination of compulsory annuities for certain defined contribution withdrawals – UK insurers have already reported an impact Continued geopolitical risks including Russia-Ukraine conflict, Middle East terrorism and territorial disputes in Asia will further challenge the current macro-economy Global reinsurers face significant challenges from a combination of suppressed investment earnings, significant rate cuts and increased competition from alternative capital sources (see Reinsurance Spotlight) *Growth rates based on average analyst consensus forecasts across 25 global insurers. Excludes UK based insurers due to absence of 3Q forecast data Source: Company filings; Dow Jones; ThompsonOne; Moody’s; A.M. Best Company; EY Research, 2014 Page 5 Global Insurance Industry: Quarterly Spotlight Report Equity market performance, interest rates and non-life pricing trends continue to be key concerns for the industry Factors Affecting the Primary Insurance Industry Impact Current Quarter Comments 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 1 Equity market performance While the insurance sector finished up versus 3Q2013, stock indices ended flat for the quarter due to concerns over the sustainability of current equity market performance, the continuation of low interest rates, declining bond yields and a softening P&C cycle 2 Interest rates The decline in bond yields experienced during 9M14 is likely to put pressure on demand for saving products, while further constraining investment income, resulting in a stagnation of top line growth 3 Natural catastrophe Despite higher losses due to severe winter weather during 1Q14 and floods in 2Q14, the insured losses from catastrophe events remain below average due benign US hurricane season during 3Q14 4 Pricing trend The deceleration of premium growth, including a decline in the UK, continued into the third quarter, as a result of persistent rate softening in several markets, including the US, Germany, and France 5 Regulatory environment The industry continues to face numerous regulatory reforms as most markets introduced reforms for ensuring higher levels of capital adequacy and removing inefficiencies from the industry 6 Reinsurance industry capacity As the reinsurance industry continues to grapple with excess capacity, primary insurers continue to benefit from softening reinsurance rates as well as terms and conditions 7 Alternative risk transfer instruments Despite a relatively quiet 3Q14, the sector is set to be a record-breaking year for CAT bond issuance providing a cheaper source of risk transfer Reinsurance rating environment Source: EY analysis, 2014 8 Page 6 Reinsurers witnessed rates softening in most regions and business lines during the January, April and July renewal seasons, a trend favourable for primary insurers Global Insurance Industry: Quarterly Spotlight Report Key Trends Spotlight Page 7 Global Insurance Industry: Quarterly Spotlight Report Non-Life rate declines continue to put pressure on premium growth across most major markets US Non-Life: Net Premiums Written Growth (%) 4.3% 4.5% 4.2% 4.0% 3.7% The non-life industry continues to experience persistent rate declines across most regions − In the US rate softening was experienced primarily in property lines driven by continued strong capacity and below average catastrophe losses − Although rates are still rising in certain casualty lines in the US on an aggregate basis, the pace of increase has dropped to low single digits 0.7% 2010 2011 2012 2013 1H13 − Softening rates have dampened premium growth across several markets, including Germany and France, while growth in the UK has turned negative 1H14 France* Non-Life: Net Premiums Written Growth (%) Despite the rate declines, premiums have benefited from the growth in exposures fuelled by a positive economic growth outlook for the remainder of the year − Growth in key areas of the economy, such as car sales, new residential construction, and a drop in unemployment, continue to benefit the non-life insurance industry 4.1% 3.1% 2.2% 1.8% 2.0% 1.5% Insurers will focus on innovation and improved service to combat the pressure of declining rates − Implementation of new technology across the value chain will reduce costs and improve service − Insurers will also seek to improve business and customer insights through better data analytics and risk modeling 2010 2011 2012 2013 1H13 1H14 * 1H figures denote figures for 1st five months of the year Source: Insurance Information Institute; A.M. Best; FFSA - Fédération Française des Sociétés d'Assurances; Association of British Insurers (ABI); EY Research, 2014 Page 8 Global Insurance Industry: Quarterly Spotlight Report Natural catastrophe losses through the first nine months of 2014 are well below average, providing a positive impact on industry earnings and capital positions US P&C Industry’s Catastrophe (CAT) Losses during 3Q, (US$ Bn) 48.4 23.7 − The 3Q14 hurricane season was the quietest for the US P&C industry in more than a decade 19.1 16.1 3.7 1.3 1.3 2.6 2.0 − The $27 billion of CAT losses incurred globally during 9M14 was 56% below the 10 year average losses 9.4 8.4 0.7 If current trends persist for the remainder of the year, 2014 will be the quietest year, in terms of CAT losses, for insurers since 2008 1.8 1.9 1.2 − During 9M14, the Asia-Pacific region experienced over 100 CAT-events, particularly floods, severe storms and earthquakes Largest Natural Catastrophes Worldwide, 9M14 Month Region Event Loss Estimates Feb-14 Japan Winter damage >$2.5 bn May-14 Eastern Europe Floods >$2.5 bn Jun-14 Western Europe Severe storm, hailstorm <$2.5 bn Jan-14 US Winter damage $1.7 bn May-14 US Severe storm $1.6 bn Sept-14 Mexico Hurricane Odile $1.0 bn 3Q14 China Earthquake $1.0 bn While the severity of insured catastrophe losses across Asia has declined in recent quarters, the frequency of events has increased − The impact on insured losses in the Asia-Pacific region has been minimized due to the current low level of insurance penetration across the region The subdued insured losses have not only boosted earnings and capital positions but have also masked the impact of the declining premium rates However, the rising frequency of CAT-events remains a concern as one major event can quickly lead to a spike in losses for the industry Source: Munich Re; Aon Benfield; AM Best; Barclays Equity Research; Morgan Stanley; EY Research, 2014 Page 9 Global Insurance Industry: Quarterly Spotlight Report Underwriting fundamentals for the UK personal lines segment deteriorated during the first nine months of 2014, eroding margins UK Non-Life: Personal Lines Pricing Change (%) 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% Following the industry’s first underwriting profit in 20 years, at the end of 2013, the motor insurance sector is likely to return to underwriting losses in 2014, with a combined ratio of 109.3% YTD 2014, UK motor insurers have witnessed y-o-y declines in premium, despite rising claims costs and expenses − Insurers continue to lower rates in anticipation of claims cost savings from the LASPO Act*, as well as to compete effectively through price comparison websites -15% − The forecast for claims inflation is 1.3% in 2014 with an increase to 2.6% in 2015 -20% 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 Motor Pricing 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 Property Pricing UK Non-Life: Personal Lines Combined Ratio (%) 130% 120% Several motor insurers may look to expand their property book of business, which has structurally higher underwriting margins, less cyclicality and less regulatory risk Underwriting results for the property insurance segment also appear to be deteriorating − Property insurance premium rates declined y-o-y by 7.2% during 3Q14 mainly due to intensifying competition 110% − During 1H14, floods led to £451 million worth of claims while storms resulted in £640 million of losses 100% 90% 80% Motor Property To protect margins in the current soft cycle, insurers will need to adopt and implement more effective cycle management practices 70% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014F *LASPO Act: refers to Legal Aid, Sentencing and Punishment of Offenders Act of 2012 Source: Barclays Equity Research; AA British Insurance Premium Index; AM Best; Timetric; EY P&C Actuarial, Annual UK Motor Insurance Forecast; EY Research, 2014 Page 10 Global Insurance Industry: Quarterly Spotlight Report US life insurance returns are likely to stagnate while organic growth weakens in the face of continued low interest rates US Life: Premiums Growth and Yield on Invested Assets (%) 13.8% 7.9% 7.2% 5.4% 5.2% 5.8% 5.1% 4.9% 5.1% 4.8% 4.8% 10.1% 10.2% 10.3% 2010 2011 2012 10.9% 10.8% 2013 2014F 10.3% 9.3% 4.3% -8.1% 2008 4.9% 3.8% 0.8% 0.6% 2007 US Life: Return on Average Equity (%) 2009 2010 2011 2012 -5.6% -6.0% 2013 1H13 1H14 -0.4% Direct Premium & Annuity Consideration Net Yield on Invested Assets 2007 US Life: Pre-Tax Operating Income (US$ Bn) 63.8 61.0 59.6 53.1 44.6 32.6 28.0 26.4 2007 -1.4 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 1H13 1H14 2008 2009 The US life insurance industry ROE to decline slightly to10.8% in 2014 and 10.3% in 2015 as the 10-year Treasury yield continues to drop and interest rates remain low The low rate environment will continued to pressure investment yields in for the remainder of 2014 and further pressure margins on spread-based products Top-line growth in 2H14 and 2015 is likely to remain modest as individual life and group benefit sales are expected to remain flat while variable annuity business will continue to decline In an operating environment that doesn’t support organic growth, life insurers need to look for other strategic options to deploy their continuously building excess capital Several large insurers like MetLife, Prudential and Principal Financial are deploying capital for acquisitions and share buybacks to improve returns Source: SNL Financial; AM Best; J.P. Morgan; Morgan Stanley; EY Research, 2014 Page 11 2015F Global Insurance Industry: Quarterly Spotlight Report Chinese life insurers face potential significant cash outflows due to a combination of high surrender activity and maturity payments on high cash value products China Life: Gross Written Premium YoY Growth (%) Total Cash Outflow Forecast on Surrenders & Maturity (Rnb Bn); 4Q14-1H15 87.6% Premium growth decline to single digits since April: 175 • Change in requirement that a minimum 20% (previously 10%) of bancassuance sales must qualify as protection products 150 • Competition from wealth management products continues to hurt bancassurance product sales 24.3% 10.4% 40% 125 100 30% 75 20% 50 7.3% 5.7% 50% 10% 25 -3.0% -4.6% Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 -11.2% Jun-14 Jul-14 0 0% China Life New China Life Maturity Payment Aug-14 CPIC Life China Taiping Surrender Payment Ping An Life % of Premiums* * Annualized 1H14 premium China Life: Surrender Payment (Rmb Bn) and Change in Cash Flow 55.6 − Net cash flow has been hampered by both slowing premium growth, leading to moderating inflows, and rising surrender payments pushing up outflows 24.0% 32.2 18.7 13.3 16.3 9.7 3.0 -5.3% 7.6 3.7 − To compete with higher return and shorter duration wealth management products, insurers in late 2013 increased their focus on sales of high cash value products with a 1 year duration. As a result, increased surrender activity is expected beginning next quarter. 5.1 -5.9% − Regular maturity payments for 5-years bancassurance products sold in 2009 represent another source of significant concern -21.3% China Life New China Life 1H13 1H14 Chinese life insurers are likely to experience significant cash flow pressure during 4Q14 CPIC Life -55.9% China Taiping Ping An Life Change in Operating Cash Flow (%) Chinese life insurers will need to rebalance their product strategy to address ongoing cash outflow concerns, which could include a focus on products with high premium flow at the expense of margins Source: China Insurance Regulatory Commission (CIRC); Morgan Stanley ; Deutsche Bank; CIMB; EY Research, 2014 Page 12 Global Insurance Industry: Quarterly Spotlight Report Global reinsurers remain concerned over rising capital levels, stagnating top-line growth, weakening margins, and intensifying competitive pressures Global Reinsurance Market Capital (US$ Bn) 540 505 410 22 340 19 470 24 400 22 321 50 39 59 28 Insurers are witnessing the lowest cost of reinsurance in 10 years, driven by persistent declines in reinsurance rates in almost all lines, across most regions − Relatively benign weather related-loss events during 9M14 446 388 455 570 378 427 490 466 511 − Global reinsurance sector ‘s capital position is at a record high level while demand is largely stagnant − Intensifying competitive pressures combined with the continuous influx of new capital from alternative sources 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Traditional 2012 2013 1H14 Alternative Global Reinsurance Underwriting Ratios and Return on Equity 107.4% 95.4% 92.0% 31.3% 84.5% 31.6% 31.3% 30.6% 88.7% 89.4% 32.2% 31.0% 94.6% 31.4% 53.9% 10.6% 14.7% − A softening rate cycle is slowly starting to undermine earnings and erode returns for reinsurers 2009 2010 Loss Ratio 60.7% 2.5% 2011 With declining reinsurance rates and loosening terms and conditions, margins are getting thinner and earnings volatility is gradually increasing − Benign catastrophe related losses have masked the weakening of earnings in recent quarters 76.1% 63.8% The low cost of hedging catastrophe risk through reinsurance programs and alternative risk transfer instruments is aiding many insurers to seek growth opportunities in CAT-prone, high margin coastal regions 56.5% 58.4% 12.1% 13.1% 11.9% 2012 2013 1H14 Expense Ratio 63.2% Reinsurers with diverse business portfolios and distribution have an edge in the current environment 10.8% 5yr-Avg Return on Equity (RoE) Source: Aon Benfield; AM Best; Willis; Munich Re; EY Research, 2014 Page 13 Global Insurance Industry: Quarterly Spotlight Report The sector is set to hit a record breaking year for Catastrophe (CAT) bond issuance Alternative Capital Split by Product (%), 1H13 vs 1H14 5% 7% 9% 12% 37% 1H13 Total Alternative Capital USD44 billion 45% − During 1H14, alternative capital increased over 34% versus 1H13 and nearly 20% since year-end 2013 1H14 Total Alternative Capital USD59 billion − Given a persistently gloomy investment environment, CAT bonds are offering attractive returns to investors, especially given relatively low losses in recent quarters 41% 44% Collateralized Reinsurance CAT Bonds Sidecars − Total issuance of $5.9 billion in 1H14 is the highest for any year reflecting the continued strong demand for CAT-bonds from both sponsors and investors Catastrophe Bond (CAT Bond) Issuance (US$ Bn) 7.5 4Q 2.0 6.3 1.9 5.3 1.4 3.5 2.8 0.0 0.3 3.5 2.4 1.6 0.2 0.8 0.9 1.8 0.4 0.8 2.4 1.0 0.7 0.7 2007 2008 2009 0.3 2010 4.5 2Q 2.1 3.3 0.7 1.5 1.0 2011 2012 0.7 2013 1.4 1Q While 3Q14 saw just one transaction, adding $250 million to CAT bond issuance, total issuance is still likely to reach $8$9 billion for 2014, a new record for any single year − CAT-bond issuance reached $6.2 billion for 9M14, which is higher than the record $6.0 billion reached during 9M07 3Q 1.6 2.0 6.2 0.3 1.9 4.6 CAT-bonds have overtaken collateralized reinsurance as the largest contributor to alternative capital − CAT-bond issuance reached $4.5 billion for 2Q14, setting a new record for issuance in any single quarter Collateralized ILW 7.9 Alternative capital continues to flow into the reinsurance sector through catastrophe bonds, sidecars and hedge fund reinsurance companies Despite the growth in alternative capital, expectations are that funds will be diverted to government and corporate bonds once sovereign bond yields rise to long-term levels 2014 Source: Aon Benfield; AM Best; Willis; Munich Re; EY Research, 2014 Page 14 Global Insurance Industry: Quarterly Spotlight Report Regulators in most markets continue to introduce reforms aimed at ensuring higher levels of capital adequacy and removing inefficiencies from the industry Americas Asia-Pacific Revised capital requirements for P&C insurers in Canada China issues draft guidelines for insurance groups Canadian financial regulator made changes to the Minimum Capital Test (MCT) guidelines for P&C insurers resulting in higher capital requirements The new framework will come into effect on 1 January 2015, and is likely to produce an average 2.8ppt decline in capital ratios across the industry US Senate passes Terrorism Risk Insurance Act EMEA EIOPA publishes paper to support Solvency II calculation TRIA provides insurers with the long-term financial assurances needed to provide terrorism risk cover It also increased insurers' co-pay to 20% from 15% and raised the mandatory recoupment threshold to $37.5 billion from $27.5 billion Brazil to amend insurance advisors regulations Susep has agreed to amend regulations passed in October 2013 regarding the agent's role as an insurance advisor EIOPA published the underlying assumptions in the standard formula for the Solvency II Capital Requirement(SCR) calculation. The paper aims to support the application of Solvency II Preparatory Guidelines on forward looking assessment of own risks The new rules enable domestic insurers and Chinabased units of foreign insurers to buy a stake in more than one insurer in the same market segment China preparing for 2nd generation solvency reforms UK aims to reduce claims-based legal disputes China Insurance Regulatory Commission (CIRC) has published draft guidelines for consolidated supervision of insurance groups. CIRC started the technical tests to quantify the riskbased minimum capital for life insurers under its second-generation solvency reform. These cover risks including interest rates, market, credit and insurance operations risks Britain's Treasury announced reforms to modernise commercial insurance laws, aimed at reducing the number of claims-based legal disputes India introduces motor insurance reforms The new laws focusses on removing loopholes in previous framework by forcing businesses to better disclose risk information before buying a policy, making insurers more flexible about breaches of warranty Indian insurance regulator introduced long-term third party motor insurance policy for two-wheelers. The new rules allow for three years policy instead of current one year policy. These reforms are aimed at increasing persistency and lowering costs FASB introduces new revenue recognition standard and requires more disclosures The revenue recognition standard is more principle based and will require insurance entities and brokers to exercise more judgment FASB also issued a standard that will require insurers to make new disclosures about their short-duration insurance contracts. Insurers need to make annual updates to all assumptions used to measure the liability for future policy benefits for certain long-duration contracts Source: A.M. Best; SNL Insurance daily; Business News Americas; Insurance Newslinks; Reuters News; Press trust of India; EY Research, 2014 Page 15 Global Insurance Industry: Quarterly Spotlight Report Year to date value of M&A activity for the global insurance sector increased by 35% versus the same period last year, driven in part by strong demand from financial buyers Global Insurance M&A Deal Volume (2010 - Q3 YTD) 3% 2014 YTD 50% 33% 13% 498 3% 2013 49% 35% 13% 503 − YTD M&A data indicates that $1b+ deals are firmly back on the agenda, with private equity firms actively involved in a number of these “mega” deals 4% 2012 49% 33% 13% 544 3% 2011 48% 37% 12% − Mega deals include KKR’s acquisition of Sedgwick Claims Management for $2.4b (Jan 2014); CPPIB’s acquisition of Wilton Re for $1.8b (Mar 2014) and TPG Capital’s acquisition of Aon Warranty for $1.5b (Mar 2014) 608 4% 2010 40% Americas 40% Europe 16% Asia Pacific 563 − Most PE investment cases are based heavily on market disruptive developments, including the potentially transformational impact of technology on all elements of the insurance value chain Middle East & Africa Global Insurance M&A Deal Value (US$ Bn); 2010 - Q3 YTD 2014 YTD 59% 1% 12% 28% 44 2% 2013 40% 37% 40 21% 2% 2012 2011 44% 28% 26% 49 1% 47% 33% 19% 49% Americas Europe 19% Asia Pacific Although there is still strong appetite for M&A in rapid growth markets (RGMs), the value of deals remained lower than anticipated Mature and established markets, including the US (39% of total deal volume) and the UK (12% of total deal volume) have account for the bulk of M&A activity through 3Q14 Looking ahead, the momentum of M&A activity across the global Insurance sector is likely to continue − Based on current rates of deal activity, 2014 is expected to record the highest volume of M&A deals in the last 5 years 49 2% 2010 Private equity (PE) interest in the sector remains strong, with 37% of the top 25 deals involving a financial buyer (total value of the top 25 deals between Jan-Sep 2014 was $32.2b, of which $11.8b was from financial buyers) 30% Middle East & Africa 67 − According to EY’s 11th Capital Confidence Barometer, there is increasing optimism among global insurers, with a corresponding increase in the proportion of companies looking to pursue acquisitions Source: ThomsonOne; Mergermarket; EY Research, 2014 Page 16 Global Insurance Industry: Quarterly Spotlight Report Global Insurance Industry: Quarterly Spotlight Report Published: November 2014 Warning The information contained in this report may include dated material. Major events may have occurred since original publication that might alter the accuracy of the report. For further information, please contact the authors: David Sterner, Strategic Analyst - Insurance Vikash Kr. Singh, Analyst - Insurance David.Sterner@ey.com Vikash.Singh@in.ey.com +1 215 841 0213 +91 124 6192577 Includes copyrighted material. Any use of this material, including reproduction or distribution, must comply with applicable copyright law, as well as EY’s contractual obligations. Reproduction or reuse in excess of “fair use” may result in liability for copyright infringement. Please refer to Ernst & Young Client Confidentiality, Client Privacy and Knowledge-Sharing Policy (SCORE #CA7506) for additional guidance. © 2014 Ernst & Young LLP. All Rights Reserved. Page 17 Global Insurance Industry: Quarterly Spotlight Report