April 10, 2012 Joe Halvorson, Chris MacIntosh, Tim Marquis What causes a storm, severe parameters, tools. The Basics Thunderstorms need three things to develop: Moisture Instability Lift/Trigger Severe storms need one more ingredient: Wind shear (directional, speed) Storm Types Single cell: “popcorn” storms Usually not severe, short-lived Multicell: group of cells moving together Moderate severe, tornado potential Squall line: line of storms Moderate severe, low tornado potential Supercell: storm with a rotating updraft (mesocyclone) Very high severe potential Main tornado producer Singe cell Multicell Multicell radar 4 cells Quasi-Linear Convective System (QLCS) Supercell Structure Supercell Structure Parameters CAPE/CIN(H) Bulk Shear Storm-Relative Helicity Energy Helicity Index Others LCL Heights, LI, Lapse Rates. Supercell Composite, Significant Tornado Parameter CAPE Convective Available Potential Energy Ability that a parcel has to rise Large CAPE usually means large vertical velocities Different types: Surface-based Mixed-layer (Mean layer) Most unstable 0–3 km “Skinny” and “Fat” CAPE Skinny: weaker updrafts Fat: stronger updrafts “Fat” CAPE CAPE! “Skinny” CAPE CAPE! CAPE Thresholds (in J kg-1): 1–1,000 : Marginally unstable 1,000–2,500 : Moderately unstable 2,500–3,500 : Very unstable 3,500+ : Extremely unstable For 0–3 km CAPE, 100+ J kg-1 best for tornadic environment CIN (CINH) Convective Inhibition “Cap,” can prevent instability from being realized Negative CAPE Ways to overcome CIN: Heating (daytime or warm air advection) Moisture Lift CIN! CIN (CINH) Thresholds (in J kg-1): 0–50 : Weak cap 50–200 : Moderate cap 200+ : Strong cap These values are negative on most model and mesoanalysis charts. CAPE/CIN: 24 May 2011 Surface-based Mixed-layer Bulk Shear Change in wind direction and speed with height put into a single number Most useful: 0–1 km, Effective Effective accounts for storm depth (inflow base to equilibrium level) Thresholds 0–1 km : 15-20+ kts supportive of tornadoes Effective : 25–40+ kts supportive of supercells Bulk Shear: 27 April 2011 Effective 0–1 km Storm-Relative Helicity (SRH) Measure of the potential for a rotating updraft in a supercell Higher numbers associated with a higher potential for tornadoes Three types: 0–1 km, 0–3 km, effective Effective is most useful in discriminating between tornadic and nontornadic storms. Storm-Relative Helicity (SRH) Thresholds (in m2 s-2) 0–1 km : 100+ 0–3 km : 250+ Effective : 100+ 0–1 km SRH: Outbreaks 27 April 2011 24 May 2011 Hodographs Greensburg EF5 Parkersburg EF5 Outbreak Sounding Energy Helicity Index (EHI) Combination of CAPE and SRH Two types: 0–1 km, 0–3 km Thresholds >2.5 : Favorable for tornadoes Storms must develop for this to be useful Can be skewed by high CAPE values 0–1 km EHI: Outbreaks 27 April 2011 24 May 2011 Other Parameters LCL Heights Lower heights (<1000 m) associated with tornadoes Higher moisture available, keeping RFD warm Lifted Index (LI) Another stability index (taken at 500 mb) The lower the number, the more unstable the atmosphere Other Parameters Supercell Composite Significant Tornado Parameter For these two, we shall play a game! But first… MATH! MLCAPE EBS sfc ESRH 2000 MLLCL 250 MLCIN STP * * * * 1500 20 150 1500 200 MUCAPE EBS ESRH SCP * * 1000 20 50 scary Chen math, but still a nuisance. Not Game time! Game time! Where was the severe weather? ? The point of STP & SCP These are best used to pinpoint a region that severe weather could occur on a given day. Should never be used to make any other decisions without actually analyzing the environment. More things to look at! Jet Stream Increases shear Separates downdraft from updraft Longer-lived storms Low-level Jet (LLJ) Brings in moisture and warmer temperatures, increases shear and helicity Upper-Level Jet Streaks Increased shear, upward motion to increase instability Upward regions: right entrance, left exit 500 mb Jet: 27 April 2011 LLJ: 9 April 2011 Upper Level Jet Streak Left Exit Right Exit Left Entrance Right Entrance More things to look at! Frontal boundaries Cold and warm fronts, dryline Can enhance shear, helicity Source of lift Surface observations Gives an idea of what is going on at this moment Look for mesoscale features Satellite Imagery Look for clearing early, robust CU fields More things to look at! Water Vapor Imagery Shows drying, moistening in the mid- and upper-levels See where fronts/shortwaves are located More things to look at! Moisture Storms won’t form without it Td > 60°F for best environment 700 mb temperatures Good indicator of cap strength < 12°C in the spring without a strong lifting mechanism Can be slightly higher (<13°C) during summer months or with strong lift More things to look at! Theta-E Measure of heat and moisture in the atmosphere Look for theta-e advection/ridges Increased instability, convergence Could be area of convective development Storm Motion Calculated average direction and speed of storms Gives an idea of how storms will move Where Do We Look At This Stuff? SPC Mesoanalysis TwisterData COD Analysis AMS Model Animator HPC RAP Weather How to chase safely and effectively. The Beginner’s Way S/SE is safest place to be Watch for right-turning Avoid core-punching Avoid rain-wrapped messes Pull off on side roads, not main roads What NOT to expect… To see a tornado on your first time out… or second… or third… Good chasers usually see a tornado about once in every seven chases. Don’t let this deter you from chasing… Can’t win the game if you don’t play! What to expect… LONG car rides Sitting, waiting, wishing… football and frisbee! Lots of gas station/fast food meals Sketchy dirt roads And in turn, few rest stops. The beauty of the Plains Awesome tunes! THE TIME OF YOUR LIFE! Memories! Tips Wear real shoes or boots, not flip flops. Watch the skies, not just the computer screen. Only your eyes can tell you what’s actually happening around you. Try to learn as much as possible, not just watch. So we’re not held liable if you act stupid. Just kidding. But seriously. Safety Tips CHASE WITH SOMEONE WHO HAS CHASED BEFORE. Chase with a partner Stay in the car as much as possible if there’s lightning nearby. Have an escape route Try to head south if you feel that you’re in danger. If that’s not possible, head east until you can go south. Good Resource: Titan U. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d_Kh AhitJE0&list=PL68D75C6534412169&in dex=4&feature=plpp_video Don’t Get Close on Big Days! Going with experience and technology. Freshman shouldn’t go out with other freshman alone. Watch out for power poles! Things NOT to do: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h84yTN XCXPQ http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CaQ3L1j ftxs More Safety Tips Don’t get out of the car if there’s hail. Don’t chase at night. Make sure you pull off the road ALL THE WAY when you stop to look at something. Don’t pull over on highways to look. Flashers. Watch out for “those” drivers. More Safety Tips Avoid “minimum maintenance” roads Previous rainfall could have washed them out. Don’t drive on flooded roads. Turn around, don’t drown! Don’t drive over power lines/debris. Try to avoid driving through squalls. This is never possible in Iowa. WATCH OUT FOR ANIMALS. They get spooked and like to run out in front of/into the side of moving vehicles. cwmac@iastate.edu jrhalvy@iastate.edu tmarquis@iastate.edu