The Public Safety Impacts of Three Strikes in
California:
The Public Safety Impacts of the Three
A
Review
of
the
Research
Strikes Law in California:
Research Highlights
by Barry Krisberg and Sarah Lawrence
Theories Behind Three Strikes Laws

Incapacitation: the removal of offenders from the
community makes it physically impossible for them to
commit further crimes outside of prison

Deterrence: people are discouraged from committing
criminal acts out of fear of punishment


General deterrence: aimed at the public at large using the
threat of punishment
Specific deterrence: aimed at individuals based on
experience of punishment
2
Examples of Challenges of Research on Three
Strikes

Establishing cause and effect

Compared to what?

Estimating number of crimes prevented
3
Prosecutors’ Perspective on California’s Three
Strikes Law, by CA DA’s Association, 2004

Includes descriptions of approximately 10 individual cases

In one place the report states: “Three Strikes has directly and
significantly acted to reduce crime in CA.”

In another place the report states: “The dramatic drop in CA
crime might be properly attributable to several substantial
factors. It is counterintuitive to think that incarcerating
violent recidivists as felons…was not one of them.”
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Prosecutors’ Perspective (cont’d)

DA’s did not focus public safety impacts but rather
on practical consequences claiming that Three
Strikes…
 has
not caused prisons to bankrupt CA
 has not caused a decrease in education funding
 has not overcrowded prisons
 has not required new prisons
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Still Striking Out: Ten Years of California’s
Three Strikes, by Justice Policy Institute, 2004

Report has five key findings, one of which is
related to public safety
 Most
strikers in prison for non-violent offenses
 Law disproportionately impacts African-Americans
and Latinos
 Law has cost taxpayers over $8 billion
 46,000 children with incarcerated parent for many
more years because of Three Strikes law
 No evidence of a crime reduction benefit
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Impacts of Three Strikes and You’re Out on
Crime Trends in CA and Throughout US
by Elsa Chen, Journal of Contemporary CJ, 2008

Key research question:
 Did Three Strikes laws have significantly greater effects on
crime in California than elsewhere in US?

Methods:
 State-level data for all 50 states from 1986 – 2005
 Compared states with and without Three Strikes laws
 Contrasted California with other states
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Impacts of Three Strikes and You’re Out (cont’d)

Key findings:
 California’s relatively tough and frequently used law has
not resulted in greater incapacitation than other states’
more limited laws
 California’s law extends beyond point of diminishing
marginal returns
 Statistically significant decreases in motor vehicle theft
and robbery in CA suggesting some deterrent effect
 Essentially no incapacitation effect
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I’d Rather be Hanged for a Sheep than a Lamb:
The Unintended Consequences of Three Strikes
Laws by Radha Iyengar, NBER Working Paper, 2007

Key research question:
 What are the impacts of a sentencing policy with large
increases penalties for a wide range of crimes?

Methods:
 Sample of criminal records of individuals arrested during
1990-1999
 From Los Angeles, San Francisco, and San Diego
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I’d Rather be Hanged for a Sheep than a Lamb
(cont’d)

Key findings:
 Reduced overall level of crime

20% reduction in criminal activity for second-strike eligible
offenders and 28% reduction for third-strike eligible offenders
 But increased probability of committing violent crime

Increase of 9 percentage points for third-strike eligible offenders
 Increase in migration of criminals with second and third
strike eligibility to commit crime in neighboring states
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The Effect of Three-Strikes Legislation on
Serious Crime in California by John L. Worrall, Journal of
Criminal Justice, 2004

Key research question:
 Does Three Strikes legislation reduce violent crime?

Methods:
 County-level data from 1989 to 2000
 Controlled for economic, demographic, and deterrence-
oriented factors
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The Effect of Three-Strikes Legislation on
Serious Crime in California (cont’d)

Findings:
Three-strikes had virtually no deterrent effect on serious crime
 Controlling for trends in individual counties, three strikes had
virtually no deterrent or incapacitative effects on serious crime
 Violent crimes were reduced when more “three-strikers” were
committed to prison – in other words, three-strikes
incapacitative effect appears to outweigh its deterrent effect
 No evidence that three strikes causes an increase in certain
types of crime

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Crime and Punishment in California: The Impact
of Three Strikes and You’re Out by Zimring et al, Institute
of Governmental Studies Press, 1999

Key research question:
 Was the Three Strikes law responsible for a major share of
California’s crime decline?

Methods:
 Analyzed arrests before and after law went into effect
 Based on data from Los Angeles, San Diego, and San
Francisco
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Crime and Punishment in California (cont’d)

Key findings:
 The potential maximum crime reduction is fairly small

Individuals eligible for 3rd strike were responsible for 3.3% of all
urban felony arrests and those eligible for a 2nd strike were
responsible for 7.3% of arrests – i.e., 90% of criminals not covered
 People eligible for 3rd strike accounted for 3.3% of arrests
before law and 2.7% of arrests after law
 Three Strikes law reduced crime by 0.6%
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California Criminal Justice System (Part I Crimes)
2009
Part I Crimes (779,625)1
Adult Part I Arrests (250,653)2
Adult Part I Convictions (96,813)3
Adult Part I
Sentenced to Prison (22,314)4
Source: Crime in California, 2009. California Department of Justice. 1Table 1, 2Table 19, 3Table
40, 4Table 41. http://ag.ca.gov. Accessed on May 5, 2011.
Share of California Prisoners that are 2nd
and 3rd Strikers, 2009
Source: Corrections,Year At A Glance, Fall 2010. California Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation.
http://www.cdcr.ca.gov/. Accessed on April 29, 2011.
Number of 2nd and 3rd Strikers in the
CDCR Population, 2001 - 2010
Source: Second and Third Striker Felons in the Adult Institution Population, California Department of Corrections
and Rehabilitation, 2001 - 2010. http://www.cdcr.ca.gov/. Accessed on May 5, 2011.
Highlights

Research findings are often nuanced and narrow
 Effects by which strike
 Effects by offense type
 Effects by age
 Effects of deterrence versus incapacitation
 Non-public safety effects


Several issues still under debate in research
community
Public safety impacts generally not in areas where
intended
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Research Cited




Chen, Elsa, “Impacts of Three Strikes and You’re Out on Crime
Trends in CA and Throughout US,” Journal of Contemporary
Criminal Justice, Vol. 24, No. 4, (2008).
Iyengar, Radha , “I’d rather be Hanged for a Sheep than a
Lamb The Unintended Consequences of ‘Three-Strikes’ Laws,”
Harvard University and NBER, (2007).
Worrall, John, “The Effect of Three-Strikes Legislation on
Serious Crime in California,” Journal of Criminal Justice, 32,
(2004).
Zimring, Franklin, “Crime and Punishment in California: The
Impact of Three Strikes and You’re Out,” Institute of
Governmental Studies, (1999).
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