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Demographic Characteristics and Trends in Texas and North Texas: Population and Infrastructure North Texas Area Leadership Program Regional Leadership Day February 19, 2015 Frisco, Texas Total Population and Components of Population Change in Texas, 1950-2013 Year* Population Numeric Change -- Annual Percent Change 1950 7,711,194 -- 1960 9,579,677 1,868,483 2.4 1970 11,196,730 1,617,053 1.7 1980 14,229,191 3,032,461 2.7 1990 16,986,510 2,757,319 2.0 2000 20,851,820 3,865,310 2.3 2010 25,145,561 4,293,741 2.1 2012 26,060,796 915,235 1.8 2013 26,448,193 387,397 1.4 2014 26,956,958 451,321 1.7 * All values for the decennial dates are for April 1st of the indicated census year. Values for 2012 and 2013 are for July 1 as estimated by the U.S. Census Bureau. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census Counts and Population Estimates Note: Residual values are not presented in this table. 2 Texas Population Growth 1950-2010 30 000 000 25 000 000 20 000 000 15 000 000 10 000 000 5 000 000 0 1950 1960 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census Counts 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Components of Population Change by Percent in Texas, 1950-2010 Migration Natural Increase 10,5% 13,3% 34,1% 58,5% 89,5% 50,3% 46,3% 49,7% 53,7% 1990s 2000s 86,7% 65,9% 41,5% 1950s 1960s Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates 1970s 1980s One third of the top 40 fastest growing counties in the United States are in Texas, 2012 to 2013 U.S. Rank 5 9 10 11 13 22 23 25 28 32 35 39 Geography Kendall County, Texas Fort Bend County, Texas Hays County, Texas Andrews County, Texas Dimmit County, Texas Comal County, Texas Ector County, Texas Ward County, Texas Williamson County, Texas Montgomery County, Texas Denton County, Texas Gaines County, Texas Population Estimate 2012 35,968 625,853 169,013 16,137 10,481 114,590 144,609 10,887 456,359 484,790 708,050 18,393 2013 37,766 652,365 176,026 16,799 10,897 118,480 149,378 11,244 471,014 499,137 728,799 18,921 Change, 2012 to 2013 Number 1,798 26,512 7,013 662 416 3,890 4,769 357 14,655 14,347 20,749 528 Percent 5.0 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.0 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.0 2.9 2.9 Counties in bold had growth associated with oil and gas extraction Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 5 One fourth of U.S. counties in the top 40 for numeric growth are in Texas, 2012-2013 U.S. Rank Geography Population Estimate Change, 2012 to 2013 2013 4,336,853 Number 82,890 Percent 1.9 1 Harris County, Texas 2012 4,253,963 6 Bexar County, Texas 1,785,787 1,817,610 31,823 1.8 8 Tarrant County, Texas 1,881,445 1,911,541 30,096 1.6 11 Fort Bend County, Texas 625,853 652,365 26,512 4.2 12 Dallas County, Texas 2,453,907 2,480,331 26,424 1.1 15 Travis County, Texas 1,096,246 1,120,954 24,708 2.3 22 Denton County, Texas 708,050 728,799 20,749 2.9 24 33 35 Collin County, Texas Williamson County, Texas Montgomery County, Texas 834,674 456,359 484,790 854,778 471,014 499,137 20,104 14,655 14,347 2.4 3.2 3.0 6 County Population Change, Texas, 1950-2010 1960 1950 1980 1970 2000 1990 2010 Total Population by County Estimated Change of the Total Population by County, Texas, 2010 to 2013 Legend tl_2010_48_county10_dpsf Nch1013 Dallam Lipscomb Hansford Sherman Ochiltree Hartley Moore Roberts Hutchinson Hemphill Oldham Potter Carson Deaf Smith Armstrong Randall -800-0 1-1,000 Parmer Castro 99 counties lost population over the three year period Gray Wheeler Collingsworth Donley Briscoe Swisher Hall Childress Hardeman Wilbarger Wichita Foard Clay Hockley Lamar Red Lubbock Crosby Dickens King Knox Baylor Archer Montague Cooke Grayson Fannin Cochran River Bowie Stonewall Throckmorton Jack Wise Denton Delta Titus Collin Garza Kent Lynn Young Yoakum Terry Haskell Hunt Franklin Morris Cass Camp Stephens Rockwall Rains Palo Parker Tarrant Wood Upshur Marion Dallas Gaines Dawson Borden Scurry Fisher Shackelford Pinto Van Jones Gregg Harrison Kaufman Zandt Eastland Erath Hood Johnson Ellis Smith Nolan Taylor Callahan Andrews Martin Howard Somervell Henderson Rusk Panola Mitchell Navarro Cherokee Hill Comanche Coke Runnels Bosque Glasscock Loving Winkler Ector Anderson Shelby Sterling Coleman Brown Midland Hamilton Freestone Nacogdoches Culberson Tom Limestone Ward Crane Mills San Sabine Coryell McLennan Upton Reagan Irion Green Concho Reeves Leon Houston Augustine Falls McCulloch San Lampasas Jasper Trinity Bell Saba Robertson Madison Newton Schleicher Menard Burnet Crockett Polk Tyler Jeff Milam Pecos Walker Mason Llano San Brazos Williamson Davis Kimble Burleson Grimes Jacinto Sutton Blanco Gillespie Hardin Travis Lee Montgomery Washington Orange Terrell Bastrop Kerr Hays Liberty Presidio Edwards Val Kendall Waller Fayette Jefferson Real Harris Caldwell Brewster Verde Comal Bandera Austin Chambers Guadalupe Fort Colorado Bexar Bend Galveston Gonzales Lavaca Medina Kinney Uvalde Wharton Wilson Brazoria DeWitt Jackson Maverick Zavala Frio Atascosa Karnes Victoria Matagorda Goliad Calhoun Live Bee Dimmit La Salle Refugio Oak McMullen San Aransas Patricio Jim Webb Nueces Duval Wells 1,001-20,000 Bailey Lamb Hale Floyd Motley Cottle 20,001-80,000 80,000-228,000 tl_2010_48_county10_dpsf El Paso Pctch1013 Hudspeth -0.106707 - 0.000000 0.000001 - 0.025000 0.025001 - 0.050000 0.050001 - 0.100000 0.100001 - 0.146341 tl_2010_48_county10_dpsf Kleberg POPESTIMATE2013 95-,10,000 Jim Zapata Hogg Brooks Kenedy Starr Willacy Hidalgo Cameron 10,001-50,000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates, 2013 Vintage. 8 Estimated Percent Change of the Total Population by County, Texas, 2010 to 2013 Legend tl_2010_48_county10_dpsf Pctch1013 -11-0% 0.1-2.5% Dallam Lipscomb Hansford Sherman Ochiltree Hartley Moore Roberts Hutchinson Hemphill Oldham Potter Carson Deaf Smith Armstrong Randall Parmer Castro 2.51-5% Gray Wheeler Collingsworth Donley Briscoe Swisher Hall Childress Hardeman Wilbarger Wichita Foard Clay Hockley Lamar Red Lubbock Baylor Archer Crosby Dickens King Knox Montague Cooke Grayson Fannin Cochran River Bowie Stonewall Throckmorton Jack Wise Denton Delta Titus Collin Young Yoakum Terry Lynn Garza Kent Haskell Hunt Franklin Morris Cass Camp Stephens Rockwall Rains Palo Parker Tarrant Wood Upshur Marion Dallas Gaines Dawson Borden Scurry Fisher Shackelford Pinto Van Jones Gregg Harrison Kaufman Zandt Eastland Erath Hood Johnson Ellis Smith Nolan Taylor Callahan Andrews Martin Howard Somervell Henderson Rusk Panola Mitchell Navarro Cherokee Hill Comanche Coke Runnels Bosque Glasscock Loving Winkler Ector Anderson Shelby Sterling Coleman Brown Midland Hamilton Freestone Nacogdoches Culberson Tom Limestone Ward Crane Mills San Sabine Coryell McLennan Upton Reagan Irion Green Concho Reeves Leon Houston Augustine Falls McCulloch San Lampasas Jasper Trinity Bell Saba Robertson Madison Newton Schleicher Menard Burnet Crockett Polk Tyler Jeff Milam Pecos Walker Mason Llano San Brazos Williamson Davis Kimble Burleson Grimes Jacinto Sutton Blanco Gillespie Hardin Travis Lee Montgomery Washington Orange Terrell Bastrop Kerr Hays Liberty Presidio Edwards Val Kendall Waller Fayette Jefferson Real Harris Brewster Verde Comal Caldwell Bandera Austin Chambers Guadalupe Fort Colorado Bexar Bend Galveston Gonzales Lavaca Kinney Uvalde Medina Wharton Wilson Brazoria DeWitt Jackson Maverick Zavala Frio Atascosa Karnes Victoria Matagorda Goliad Calhoun Live Bee Dimmit La Salle Refugio Oak McMullen San Aransas Patricio Jim Webb Duval Wells Nueces Bailey Lamb Hale Floyd Motley Cottle 5.1-10% 10.1-14.7% El Paso Hudspeth Kleberg Jim Zapata Hogg Brooks Kenedy Starr Willacy Hidalgo Cameron Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates, 2013 Vintage. 9 Estimated Number of Net Migrants by County, Texas, 2012 to 2013 Legend tl_2010_48_county10_dpsf NETMIG2013 -10,500-0 1-500 Dallam Lipscomb Hansford Sherman Ochiltree Hartley Moore Roberts Hutchinson Hemphill Oldham Potter Carson Deaf Smith Armstrong Randall Parmer Castro 501-1,000 Gray Wheeler Collingsworth Donley Briscoe Swisher Hall Childress Hardeman Wilbarger Wichita Foard Clay Hockley Lamar Red Lubbock Baylor Archer Crosby Dickens King Knox Montague Cooke Grayson Fannin Cochran River Bowie Stonewall Throckmorton Jack Wise Denton Delta Titus Collin Young Yoakum Terry Lynn Garza Kent Haskell Hunt Franklin Morris Cass Camp Stephens Rockwall Rains Palo Parker Tarrant Wood Upshur Marion Dallas Gaines Dawson Borden Scurry Fisher Shackelford Pinto Van Jones Gregg Harrison Kaufman Zandt Eastland Erath Hood Johnson Ellis Smith Martin Nolan Taylor Andrews Howard Callahan Somervell Henderson Rusk Panola Mitchell Navarro Cherokee Hill Comanche Coke Runnels Bosque Glasscock Loving Winkler Ector Anderson Shelby Sterling Coleman Brown Midland Hamilton Freestone Nacogdoches Culberson Tom Limestone Ward Crane Mills San Sabine Coryell McLennan Upton Reagan Irion Green Concho Reeves Leon Houston Augustine Falls McCulloch San Lampasas Jasper Trinity Bell Saba Robertson Madison Newton Schleicher Menard Burnet Crockett Polk Tyler Jeff Milam Pecos Walker Mason Llano San Brazos Williamson Davis Kimble Burleson Grimes Jacinto Sutton Blanco Gillespie Hardin Travis Lee Montgomery Washington Orange Terrell Bastrop Kerr Hays Liberty Presidio Edwards Val Kendall Waller Fayette Jefferson Real Harris Caldwell Brewster Verde Comal Bandera Austin Chambers Guadalupe Fort Colorado Bexar Bend Galveston Gonzales Lavaca Kinney Uvalde Medina Wharton Wilson Brazoria DeWitt Jackson Karnes Maverick Zavala Frio Atascosa Victoria Matagorda Goliad Calhoun Live Bee Dimmit La Salle Refugio Oak McMullen San Aransas Patricio Jim Webb Duval Wells Nueces Bailey Lamb Hale Floyd Motley Cottle 1,001-5,000 5,001-10,000 10,001-40,200 El Paso Hudspeth Kleberg Jim Zapata Hogg Brooks Kenedy Starr Willacy Hidalgo Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates, 2013 Vintage. Cameron 10 Net Migration Percent of 2010-2013 Population Change from Net Migration Ft. Worth Dallas Midland Austin Houston San Antonio 12.1% – 50% 50.1% – 60% 60.1% – 70% 70.1% – 99% Texas Leads U.S. Job Growth, 2004-2014 Washington 320,000 New York 550,000 California North Carolina 810,000 340,000 Texas 2,180,000 Texas Leads U.S. Job Growth, 2004-2014 Percentage of Total U.S. Job Gains Attributable to each State Texas 29% 11% California 7% 4% 4% New York North Carolina Washington Number of Annual Immigrants Admitted to the United States, FY 1820-2012 2 000 000 1 800 000 1 600 000 1 400 000 1 200 000 1 000 000 800 000 600 000 400 000 200 000 1820 1825 1830 1835 1840 1845 1850 1855 1860 1865 1870 1875 1880 1885 1890 1895 1900 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 0 Fiscal Year Source: U.S. Department of Homeland Security 2013 Number of Non-Citizen Immigrants by World Area of Birth in the Top 5 Immigration Receiving States, 2007-2011 10 957 22 721 Illinois 7 054 3 884 59 220 Florida 15 651 11 730 11 002 30 532 40 835 New York 17 403 Latin America 10 045 Asia 61 418 Texas 30 982 8 331 Europe Africa and Other 8 814 56 831 100 835 California 18 766 11 660 Source: 5-Year ACS PUMS 2007-2011 Shares of Recent Non-Citizen Immigrants to Texas from Mexico, India, China, and All Other Countries, 2005-2012 China 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 11,7% 6,1% 3,9% 37,1% 8,6% 6,5% 6,0% 1,3% 6,9% 4,2% India 5,8% 45,4% 39,4% 39,5% 49,1% 7,0% 51,3% 2,4% 5,7% 54,9% Source: 1-Year ACS PUMS 2005-2012 All Others 45,1% 42,1% 48,1% 52,3% 2,5% 0,8% 5,3% Mexico 56,8% 40,9% 39,2% 36,9% 37,1% Texas Racial and Ethnic Composition, 2000 and 2010 2000 2010 Hispanic or Latino 32% Hispanic or Latino 38% NH White 53% NH Other 4% NH Black 11% Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Census count NH Other 6% NH White 45% NH Black 11% 0 Age Under 1 year 4 years 8 years 12 years 16 years 20 years 24 years 28 years 32 years 36 years 40 years 44 years 48 years 52 years 56 years 60 years 64 years 68 years 72 years 76 years 80 years 84 years 88 years 92 years 96 years 100 to 104… Population Texas White (non-Hispanic) and Hispanic Populations by Age, 2010 250000 200000 White (non-Hispanic) 150000 Hispanic 100000 50000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1 18 Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010 Male White, Non-Hispanic Female White, Non-Hispanic 100 to 104 years 95 years 90 years 85 years 80 years 75 years 70 years 65 years 60 years 55 years 50 years 45 years 40 years 35 years 30 years 25 years 20 years 15 years 10 years 5 years Under 1 year 200 000 150 000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1 100 000 50 000 0 50 000 100 000 150 000 19 200 000 Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010 Male Hispanic Male Black, Non-Hispanic Male Asian, Non-Hispanic Male Other, Non Hispanic Female Hispanic Female Black, Non-Hispanic Female Asian, Non-Hispanic Female Other, Non Hispanic 100 to 104 years 95 years 90 years 85 years 80 years 75 years 70 years 65 years 60 years 55 years 50 years 45 years 40 years 35 years 30 years 25 years 20 years 15 years 10 years 5 years Under 1 year 200 000 150 000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1 100 000 50 000 0 50 000 100 000 150 000 20 000 200 Texas Population Pyramid by Race/Ethnicity, 2010 Male White, Non-Hispanic Male Hispanic Male Black, Non-Hispanic Male Asian, Non-Hispanic Male Other, Non Hispanic Female White, Non-Hispanic Female Hispanic Female Black, Non-Hispanic Female Asian, Non-Hispanic Female Other, Non Hispanic 100 to 104 years 95 years 90 years 85 years 80 years 75 years 70 years 65 years 60 years 55 years 50 years 45 years 40 years 35 years 30 years 25 years 20 years 15 years 10 years 5 years Under 1 year 200 000 150 000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2010 Decennial Census, SF1 100 000 50 000 0 50 000 100 000 150 000 21 200 000 Percent of the population aged 65 years and older, census tracts, 2007-2011 Percent aged 65 and older Denton McKinney 0% - 10% Frisco Fairview 11% - 15% Allen Plano 16% - 20% 21% - 30% 31% - 79% Rowlett Fort Worth Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5 Year Sample 20072011. 22 Percent of population aged 25 and older with high school degree or higher, census tracts, 2007-2011 Percent high school graduate or higher 16% - 50% Denton McKinney 51% - 65% Frisco Fairview 66% - 80% Allen 81% - 90% Plano 91% - 100% Rowlett Fort Worth Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5 Year Sample 20072011. 23 Percent of housing units build in 2005 and later, census tracts, 2007-2011 Built 2005 or later Denton 0% - 10% McKinney 11% - 20% Frisco Fairview Allen 21% - 30% Plano 31% - 50% 51% - 100% Rowlett Fort Worth Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5 Year Sample 20072011. 24 Percent of the population aged 5 years and older who speak a language other than English at home, census tracts, 2007-2011 Denton Language other than English McKinney Frisco 0% - 20% Fairview Allen 21% - 35% Plano 36% - 50% 51% - 75% Rowlett 76% - 100% Fort Worth Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5 Year Sample 20072011. 25 Percent of the population that is foreign born, census tracts, 2007-2011 Percent Foreign born Denton 0% - 10% McKinney 11% - 20% Frisco Fairview Allen 21% - 30% Plano 31% - 40% 41% - 75% Rowlett Fort Worth Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5 Year Sample 20072011. 26 Travel Time to Work 1990 2012 Percentage of Workers with Drive Times Longer than 25 Mins. Mean travel time to work (minutes), census tracts, 2007-2011 Denton McKinney Frisco Mean travel time to work (minutes) Fairview Allen 5 - 20 Plano 21 - 25 26 - 35 Rowlett 36 - 60 61 - 110 Fort Worth Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 5 Year Sample 20072011. 28 Projected Population Growth in Texas, 2010-2050 60 000 000 Migration Scenarios 55 000 000 Zero 50 000 000 .5 of 2000-2010 45 000 000 2000-2010 40 000 000 35 000 000 30 000 000 25 000 000 20 000 000 2010 2015 2020 2025 Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 29 Texas Population Change by Age Group, 2010-2030 2010 Male 2030 Male 2010 Female 2030 Female 85 years and older 80 to 84 years 75 to 79 years 70 to 74 years 65 to 69 years 60 to 65 years 55 to 59 years 50 to 65 years 45 to 49 years 40 to 44 years 35 to 39 years 30 to 34 years 25 to 29 years 20 to 24 years 15 to 19 years 10 to 14 years 5 to 9 years Under 5 1 500 1 000 500 0 Thousands Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections 500 1 000 1 500 Projected Racial and Ethnic Percent, Texas, 2010-2050 35 000 000 30 000 000 25 000 000 20 000 000 15 000 000 10 000 000 NH-White NH-Black Hispanic NH-Other 5 000 000 0 Source: Texas State Data Center 2012 Population Projections , 2000-2010 Migration Scenario 31 Trends in Educational Attainment of Persons in the Labor Force (25-64 Years of Age) in Texas by Race/Ethnicity – High School Graduates and Above 100% 95% 90% 85% White 80% Black 75% Hispanic 70% Other 65% 60% 55% 50% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, Public Use Micro Sample, 2001-2011 Percent of the Civilian Labor Force (ages 25-64) by Educational Attainment for 2011, 2030 Using Constant Rates, Texas 35,0% 31,3% Percent of the Civilian Labor Force 30,0% 23,8% 25,0% 2011 ACS 29,9% 2030 Constant 2011 % 24,0% 20,1% 20,0% 15,0% 18,7% 18,1% 15,0% 9,8% 10,0% 9,3% 5,0% 0,0% Less than High School High School or Equivalent Some College / Associate Degree Educational Attainment These should be going DOWN Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year PUMS. Texas State Data Center, 2012 Vintage Population Projections, 0.5 Migration Scenario Bachelor's Degree Graduate or Professional Degree These should be going UP 33 Percent of the Civilian Labor Force (ages 25-64) by Educational Attainment for 2011, and 2030 Using Trended Rates, Texas 40,0% 34,3% 35,0% 2011 ACS Percent of the Civilian Labor Force 31,3% 2030 Trended (2001-2011 Trend) 30,0% 23,8% 25,0% 22,1% 20,4% 20,1% 20,0% 15,0% 15,0% 11,8% 11,4% 9,8% 10,0% 5,0% 0,0% Less than High School High School or Equivalent Some College / Associate Degree Educational Attainment These should be going DOWN Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year PUMS. Texas State Data Center, 2012 Vintage Population Projections, 0.5 Migration Scenario Bachelor's Degree Graduate or Professional Degree These should be going UP 34 Demographics and Destiny 35 Contact Lloyd Potter, Ph.D., M.P.H. Office: (512) 463-8390 or (210) 458-6530 Email: Lloyd.Potter@osd.state.tx.us Internet: http://osd.state.tx.us 36
