SCANNING THE ENVIRONMENT:
Economic, Labor Market, and Demographic Planning
Information for the Seattle Community College District
Kyra Kester, Ph. D.
Social and Economic Sciences Research Center
SCAN PROVIDES:
2
•
Projections of job growth for King County 2013 – 23 as
industry growth and occupation growth
•
Information on the average earnings and median wages
as of 2013
•
Brief investigation of demand compared to completions
(as of 2012)
•
Analysis of demographic changes applicable to
educational planning: changes in age cohorts,
race/ethnicity, and educational attainment
•
Recommendations for targeting or enhancing programs
that prepare students for the economic conditions
predicted for 2023
ANTICIPATED CONDITIONS
2013-2023
• ECONOMIC FORECASTS
• PROJECTED POPULATION GROWTH
GENERALLY, ECONOMIC FORECASTS ARE
POSITIVE
 ANTICIPATING 15-16% GROWTH FOR KING COUNTY
2013-2023
 Some industries are still suffering from the
recession (Finance), while others are still
recovering (Construction).
 Growth rates vary within industries and
occupations: subject of study in this report.
4
POPULATION FORECASTS ARE FOR
SLIGHT GROWTH
 2013-2023 PROJECTED GROWTH RATES SLIGHTLY SLOWER
THAN OVER THE LAST FIVE YEARS:
 Washington state 6%
 King County 7%
 SCCD catchment 5%
 Central catchment 5%
 North catchment 6%*
 South catchment 8%
5
GROWTH IS PROJECTED TO BE HIGHER
AMONG SOME GROUPS
 HIGHEST GROWTH EXPECTED AMONG A VARIETY OF
HISPANIC COHORTS
 Taken together, projected to increase by 21% in King
County 2013-2023
 AVERAGE AGE PREDICTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE
 Largest increases among 65+ cohorts
 Largest working age increases in the
35-39 cohort
6
Demographic Changes Anticipated
for North Catchment, 2013-2023
• In 2013, 73% of the population was white
• By 2023, 71% of the population is expected to
be white
• The change will largely occur from increases in
Asian American and Hispanic/Hispanic-mixed
cohorts
7
RACE/ETHNICITY CHANGES 2013-2023 NORTH CATCHMENT
8
White
347
African American
1,031
American Indian/Native Alaskan
(6)
Asian American
4,576
Pacific Islander/Native Hawaiian
107
Multiracial, not Hispanic
2,318
White Hispanic
2,924
African American-Hispanic
106
American Indian- Hispanic
186
Asian American-Hispanic
87
Pacific Islander-Hispanic
2
Multiracial-Hispanic
365
Age cohorts will also be shifting
9
•
Largest growth anticipated among residents
over 65
•
Largest student-age growth is expected in the
35-39 cohort
•
Student age population, generally, is projected
to remain strong
2013
Under 5 years
5 to 9 years
10 to 14 years
15 to 19 years
20 to 24 years
25 to 29 years
30 to 34 years
35 to 39 years
40 to 44 years
45 to 49 years
50 to 54 years
55 to 59 years
60 to 64 years
65 to 69 years
70 to 74 years
75 to 79 years
80 to 84 years
85 years/over
Total
10
14,890
12,464
10,311
15,900
29,004
30,244
27,649
22,352
20,462
17,514
18,012
19,575
16,621
10,942
6,633
5,165
4,659
6,626
289,024
2023
15,449
12,832
10,766
16,472
28,322
28,323
27,789
25,606
20,725
15,666
16,608
18,535
17,363
14,155
11,150
8,867
5,987
6,450
301,067
CHANGE
559
368
455
572
-682
-1,921
140
3,254
263
-1,848
-1,404
-1,040
742
3,213
4,517
3,702
1,328
-176
12,043
% CHANGE
4%
3%
4%
4%
-2%
-6%
1%
15%
1%
-11%
-8%
-5%
4%
29%
68%
72%
29%
-3%
4%
RECOMMENDATIONS
Focus strategically on programs and
partnerships that target industries with high
growth rates and high wages
•
•
•
•
12
Industries are groups of businesses with similar products and
services.
Employers in fast-growing and high-skilled industries will
have the strongest interest in helping to prepare the workers
they need.
Industry groups often support staff available for partnership
work, as well as research about their workforce needs.
Full participation in program design by industry partners can
result in more workplace application opportunities for
students.
Since industries represent businesses, companies in these fields are
expected to be expanding and hiring. All of them include workers with
a variety of educations and all include jobs requiring high skills and
paying high wages. Occupation specifics follow.
13
Projections for North are for businesses in
Sales, Office/Administration and Food to
continue to dominate area employment
14
INDUSTRY PROJECTIONS
FOR NORTH, 2013-2023
15
Projected New Jobs by Industry,
North Catchment, 2013-2023
16
Projected Openings by Industry,
North Catchment, 2013-2023
Projected Openings Compared to New Jobs, North Catchment, 2013-2023
17
Focus also on key occupations with high
growth and high wages
•
While industries represent businesses, occupations
describe jobs.
• Remember that many occupations appear
throughout multiple industries.
•
18
Next are illustrations of the fastest growing
occupations and then examples of which are usually
filled by workers with associate’s degrees and
certifications.
19
20
TOTAL JOBS BY
OCCUPATION, NORTH
CATCHMENT, 2013. WITH
MEDIAN WAGE RATES
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Occupations projected for the
North catchment that are:
1. expected to have at least 100 total jobs in
2023,
2. with at least 15 annual openings per year
2013-23, and
3. for which employees commonly had at least a
postsecondary certification and no more than
a Bachelor's degree.
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Total 2023
New 2013-23
Change
Annual
Openings
2013 Median
Most Common Ed Attainment
Registered Nurse
3,288
635
24%
119
$
39.40
Associate's
Software Dev, Apps
1,703
350
26%
51
$
51.02
Bachelor's
Nursing Assistant
1,457
218
18%
40
$
14.92
Certificate
Hair/Cosmology
1,324
230
21%
47
$
14.02
Certificate
Accountant/Audit
1,018
122
14%
34
$
33.35
Bachelor's
Market Research
778
212
37%
40
$
39.16
Bachelor's
Software Dev, Sys
667
186
39%
25
$
50.20
Bachelor's
Preschool Tchr
593
110
23%
25
$
13.84
Associate's
Med/Health Mgr
584
65
13%
20
$
51.02
Bachelor's
Dental Assistant
581
87
18%
20
$
20.65
Certificate
Comp User Support
578
121
26%
26
$
26.09
Associate's
Elementary Tchr
524
120
30%
22
$
28.28
Bachelor's
Fitness Trnr
518
94
22%
17
$
19.43
Certificate
Comp Programmer
506
72
17%
18
$
46.72
Bachelor's
Comp Syst Analyst
495
109
28%
19
$
45.47
Bachelor's
Massage Therapist
471
95
25%
17
$
24.13
Certificate
Teachers, General
434
83
24%
15
$
19.72
Bachelor's
Dental Hygenist
433
76
21%
16
$
44.88
Associate's
Lic Prac Nurse
405
85
27%
19
$
26.15
Certificate
Graphic Designer
367
33
10%
16
$
22.50
Bachelor's
354
90
34%
18
$
28.90
Bachelor's
OCCUPATION
23 Secondary Tchr
KING COUNTY GROWTH OCCUPATIONS AND THE MOST
COMMON EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT
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KING COUNTY GROWTH OCCUPATIONS AND THE MOST
COMMON EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT
25
Industries with large numbers of job openings
but low pay may still serve as entry points for
unemployed/under-skilled job entrants
•
•
Create job ladders for the entry-level positions so that
workers have a clear vision of how they get from entry point to
the next progression, and
Provide the education and training necessary for that
progression.
Example: pay-rate increases for First Line Supervisors in multiple
occupations -- Sales, Production, Transportation, Construction,
Office -- average $8/hr increase in median wages. What do entrylevel supervisory occupations have in common? How do workers
gain required skill and knowledge?
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Watch supply and demand
 Use advisory boards appropriately to help match education
and training with employment needs.
 Keep a clear vision, regularly updated, of the opportunities
emerging in the economy by assessing employment data
regularly .
 Keep programs flexible enough to shift as industries and
occupations change.
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EXAMPLE of TRACKING SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Sources: EMSI/IPEDS
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Ensure that students gain marketable skills
 All students need to know
the basic skills of the
modern workplace

Employers still report that
applicants/new hires lack
adequate computer and
computational skills.
 All students need to know
 All students need to be
able to communicate and
use soft skills

 Students need to
understand the demand
for cultural/language
skills
how to apply their
academic knowledge in a
workplace

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Students need the opportunity to
make real world applications of their
learning, preferably directly with
employers and at worksites, in all
disciplines.
Employers still report that
applicants and new hires are
deficient in communication
and teamwork skills.

Businesses seek employees
with multicultural
awareness and second
language skills.
Address the demographic changes of King
County, particularly the demands of working
adults
The aging population provides several opportunities:
• expand options for workers over 45, who were highly
affected by the recession.
•
•
•
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Unemployment rate lower than for younger adults, but it takes
longer to regain employment.
More likely to become underemployed after prolonged
unemployment
They may be the least likely to see how to blend education
and training opportunities with whatever work they have.
PROJECTED POPULATION CHANGES BY AGE COHORT,
KING COUNTY 2013-2023
31
KING COUNTY:
ENROLLED IN SCHOOL/COLLEGE
SEATTLE:
ENROLLED IN SCHOOL/COLLEGE
AGE GROUP
PERCENTAGE
ENROLLED
PUBLIC
SCHOOL/
COLLEGE
PRIVATE
SCHOOL/
COLLEGE
79%
18 - 19
87%
86%
14%
20 - 24
47%
20 - 24
61%
74%
26%
25 - 34
13%
25 - 34
16%
78%
22%
4%
80%
20%
AGE GROUP
PERCENTAGE
ENROLLED
18 - 19
35 AND OLDER
3%
35 AND
OLDER
• ONLY 13-16% of 25-34 year olds are enrolled in school or college
• ONLY 3-4% of those 35 years and older are enrolled
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Address the demographic changes of King
County (continued)
 The rising Hispanic/Latino population is under-enrolled in
the colleges. Better understanding of the education and
employment objectives of these students is needed.
 Growth in the five cohorts that include Hispanic
identification, taken together, will increase to form a
cohort of 233,435 residents in 2023, and become the
third largest cohort overall.
33
34
Address the demographic changes
of King County (continued)
And address the needs of nearly 20 percent of the
immigrants in Seattle who lack a high school diploma or
equivalent.
35
36
KING COUNTY RESIDENTS BY RACE/ETHNICITY WHO HAVE
COMPLETED HIGH SCHOOL BUT NOT ATTAINED A DEGREE
•
•
•
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Having completed high school gives some assurance that these
are potential students who are ready, or who could readily
become ready, for credit-bearing course work.
Those among them who have already completed some college
courses have an even better start at reaching an associate's
degree.
And there are 533,160 of them.
For questions:
Kyra Kester
Social and Economic Sciences Research Center/
Puget Sound Division
Washington State University
kkester@wsu.edu (best way to contact)
206.257.5121
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