D1407: Enrollment Management: A Game of
Trade-Offs, Compromises, and Occasional
Victories
Paul Hamborg, Enrollment Research Associates, TX
Bambi Burgard, Kansas City Art Institute, MO
Christopher Ellertson, Trinity University, TX
Michael Thorp, Millsaps College, MS
Change in Consumer Behavior
From 2000 to 2008:
•
The household savings rate dipped below zero
•
Median family income stagnated
•
The consumer price index increased 27%
•
Private college tuition increased 57%
Since 2008:
•
Willingness and ability to borrow has decreased dramatically
•
Current income is now the primary source for paying for college
Family Financial Circumstances
Family 1:
Family 2:
Family 3:
Family 4:
$6,000 EFC $13,000 EFC $22,000 EFC $36,000 EFC
Annual Wages
$70,000
$100,000
$135,000
$175,000
Monthly Net Income
$4,270
$5,873
$7,605
$9,500
Housing Costs
$2,255
$2,695
$3,179
$3,600
$575
$950
$1,550
$1,550
General Expenses
$1,485
$2,160
$2,735
$2,835
Total Expenses
$4,315
$5,805
$7,464
$7,985
-$45
$68
$141
$1,515
Transportation Costs
Net Income/Loss
What Happened in 2009?
A Study of 902 Private Colleges
2008
2009
Change
Students
454,969
458,831
3,862
0.85% increase
Average Tuition
$24,122
$25,177
$1,055
4.37% increase
38.6%
41.3%
2.7%
$14,397
$14,497
$38
Discount
Net Revenue
Changes to the FAFSA in 2009
As part of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act passed on
February 17, 2009, the Department of Education dramatically increased
eligibility for federal Pell Grants
This goal was achieved in several important ways:
• Expanding Pell to a year-round program where students can draw
grants for summer study
•
Expanding eligibility for Pell by adjusting the underlying formulas that
determine a student’s Expected Family Contribution
•
A slight increase in the maximum Pell award and in the EFC cut-off
value
What Happened in 2009?
A Study of 902 Private Colleges
Pell grants
Percent with Pell
Pell Amount
Student Cost
2008
2009
Change
106,797
133,811
27,014
23.5%
29.2%
5.7%
25.2% increase
$366,258,257 $543,099,737 $176,841,480 48.3% increase
$11,750
$11,398
-$352
3.0% decrease
Merit Scholarships Versus Need-Based Aid
• Most merit-based scholarships contribute toward meeting
student need as defined by the FAFSA
• We have a valid and reliable measure of academic profile, while
we do not have a valid and reliable measure of need
• Actual need versus perceived need has become a more
significant issue
11 Year Average: 640.2
Millsaps College Enrollment Results, 2009 - 2011
2009
2010
2011
282
214
228
Tuition
$26,240
$27,814
$29,482
Net Revenue Per Student
$5,934
$8,064
$10,323
Discount Rate
77.4%
71.0%
65.3%
Average ACT
25.4
26.5
26.4
One-Year Retention Rate
76%
88%
-
New Students
Year
Discount
Rate
2007
48%
2008
51%
2009
50%
2010
52%
2011
53%
Question 1
Enrollment management has become increasingly data
driven over the past decade.
How have each of you integrated data-driven decision
making into your admissions and financial aid
operations?
Question 2
Approaches to conducting search and managing prospect
and inquiry pools has been evolving rapidly over the past
few years.
What tactics are each of you taking to increase the
number of applicants who have a strong likelihood
of attending your institution?
Question 3
All Presidents, especially new ones, want it all:
more students, more revenue, lower discount, and
higher quality students.
How do you educate them,
and the rest of the campus community,
on the realities of enrollment management in 2011?