Value-Focused Thinking
Dr. Greg Parnell
Virginia Commonwealth University
1
Overview
• Structure of Decisions
• Value-Focused Thinking
– Definition
– Benefits
– Obstacles
– Requirements
• Summary
2
Structure of Decisions
Values
What do we want?
Information
What do we know?
Alternatives
What can we do?
Key Idea: Use our strategic values to create decision opportunities
3
Alternative Focused Thinking
Initial
Alternatives
Evaluate
4
Change Thinking
Alternative-Focused Thinking
Value-Focused Thinking
Values
Initial
Alternatives
Evaluate
If you want better decisions,
find better alternatives!
New & Initial
Alternatives
Evaluate
(Values)
5
Benefits of Value Focused Thinking
uncovering
hidden
objectives
evaluating
alternatives
creating
alternatives
identifying
decision
opportunities
Thinking
About
Values
improving
communication
facilitating
involvement
guiding
strategic
thinking
interconnecting
decisions
guiding
information
collection
Keeney, Ralph L., Value Focused Thinking: A Path To Creative Decisionmaking,
Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA, 1992, pp. 3-28.
6
VFT: Guiding Strategic Thinking
Strategic
Objective
Objective 1
Objective 2
Objective 3
• Strategic objectives should guide our decision-making
• Strategic objectives are stable over time
• Means to obtain these objectives vary over time
7
SPACECAST 2020
Value Model
Missions from JCS PUB 3-14
CONTROL &
EXPLOIT SPACE
FORCE
ENHANCEMENT
FORCE
APPLICATION
SPACE
CONTROL
SPACE
SUPPORT
8
Greg Parnell's Professional Values
Be an internationally recognized
decision analyst & Professor of
Mathematical Sciences
(Operations Research)
Be an excellent
teacher & mentor
Publish important
research & be in
demand as consultant
Perform significant
professional service
9
VFT: Facilitates Involvement in
Multiple-Stakeholder Decisions
Strategic
Objective
Objective 1
Objective 2
Objective 3
Focuses stakeholder interaction on values
• Discussions more productive
• Key issues become explicit
• Postpones discussion of alternatives
10
VFT: Uncovering Hidden Objectives
Strategic
Objective
Objective 1 Objective 2
Objective 3
Objective 4
• Some objectives require considerable thought to uncover
• Some stakeholders have incentives not to identify objectives
11
VFT: Improving Communications
Strategic
Objective
Objective 1
Objective 2
Objective 3
• Facilitates communications and understanding
between all stakeholders
• Avoids technical language of many specialties
12
VFT: Decision Opportunities
Strategic
Objective
Objective 1
Objective 2
Objective 3
• Assess how we will attain future strategic objectives
• Objectives not being attained
• Objectives that are or will be degrading
• Focus our creativity to identify opportunities to create value
13
Greg Parnell's Professional Values
Be a internationally recognized decision analyst
& Professor of Mathematical Sciences
(Operations Research)
Be an excellent teacher
& mentor
Publish important research
& be in demand as consultant
Develop world class
decision & risk analysis
courses
Work on challenging
problems
Perform significant
professional service
Maintain & build friendships
University
Community
Nationally/Internationally
Develop outstanding
operations research courses
Build strong research
program
Perform university Service
Math Sciences Dept
H & S School
VCU
Teach undergraduate
courses that attract
operations research students
Develop research
agenda & thesis
research topics
Support INFORMS/MORS
Professional Objectives
Local/National
Provide sound academic
& professional advice
Attract excellent
MS thesis students
Be a member
of PhD committees
Obtain funding for
summer & students
Get research & consulting
work published
Enhance Math Sciences (OR)
undergraduate &
graduate programs
Increase program
awareness - Locally
Nationally/Internationally
Build network to help
graduates get jobs
14
VFT: Evaluating Alternatives
Strategic
Objective
20%
Objective 1
30%
30%
Objective 2
50%
Objective 3
40%
Subobjective A
Subobjective B
Measure of Merit A
Measure of Merit B
30%
Subobjective C
Measure of Merit C
Develop value model to evaluate alternatives
• Identify subobjectives required to achieve objectives
• Identify measures of merit that quantify the value of
achieving subobjectives
• Assign weight to the subobjectives and objectives
15
SPACECAST 2020 Value Model
Weighted Score = Improvement Score X Force Quality Weight
X Task Weight X Mission Weight
CONTROL &
EXPLOIT SPACE
OBJECTIVE
FORCE 0.19
APPLICATION
MISSION
TASK
0.25
0.20
SPACE 0.22
CONTROL
0.22
SPACE 0.22
SUPPORT
MAPPING,
CHARTING, &
GEODESY
WEATHER
MONITORING &
CONTROL
COMMUNICATIONS
INTELLIGENCE &
SURVEILLANCE
NAVIGATION &
POSITIONING
FORCE 0.37
ENHANCEMENT
0.07
0.08
FORCE
QUALITY
CRISIS
AVAILABILITY
0.35
MEASURE
OF MERIT
CAPACITY
0.35
INTEROPERABILITY
0.20
WARNING,
PROCESSING, &
DISSEMINATION
0.18
SECURITY
0.10
INITIAL LINKS
IN THEATER
DECOMPRESSED
MB/SEC/LINK
COMMON-USE
SYSTEMS
LEVEL OF
SECURE LINKS
CURRENT
CAPABILITY
10
300
FEW
CORPS
(0.0)
IMPROVEMENT:
MINOR
25
600
ALL AF
DIVISION
(0.1)
SIGNIFICANT
100
1000
ALL US
BATTALION
(0.5)
ORDER OF
MAGNITUDE
1000
3000
US + INTNTL
PLATOON
(0.9)
16
VFT: Guiding Information Collection
Strategic
Objective
20%
Objective 1
30%
Subobjective A
Measure of Merit A
30%
Objective 2
50%
Objective 3
40%
Subobjective B
Measure of Merit B
30%
Subobjective C
Measure of Merit C
• Value model indicates the important information
• Collect information to
• Create better alternatives
• Credibly evaluate alternatives
17
VFT: Creating Alternatives
Strategic
Objective
20%
30%
Objective 1
Objective 2
Alternative A
Alternative B
50%
Objective 3
Alternative B
Alternative C
• Advocates will propose several alternatives
• Focus creativity to generate alternatives that create value
18
VFT: Interconnecting Decisions
Strategic
Objective
20%
30%
Objective 1
Objective 2
30%
50%
Objective 3
40%
30%
Task A
Task B
Task C
Measure of Merit A
Measure of Merit B
Measure of Merit C
• Value model assessments of alternatives
• Objective
• Traceable
• Robust
19
SPACECAST 2020
Operational Analysis Summary
(Sensitivity to Weights)
5
TAV
High
Energy
Laser
(HEL)
VALUE
4
Global
Surveillance, Recon,
& Targeting
System
(GSRT)
3
Orbital
Transfer
Vehicle
(OTV)
2
Space
Modular
Systems
1
Space
Solar
Asteroid Monitoring
Detection
Space
Traffic
Control
(SPATRACS)
Super
GPS
High Power
Microwave
Kinetic
Energy
Weapons
(KEW)
Weather
Forecasting
System
Particle
Beam
Orbital
Maneuvering
Vehicle
Ionospheric
Forecasting
Weather
Control
Solar
Mirror
TECHNOLOGICAL CHALLENGE
20
Obstacles to Value-Focused Thinking
•
•
•
•
Alternative Focused Thinking
“Drunk looking for car keys under the lamp post”
Worrying too much about the “weights”
Lack of an environment that encourages creativity
21
Requirements for Value-Focused Thinking
• Study leadership support
• Support from study team
• Experienced analysis team
22
Summary
Value Model Has a Central Role
VFT offers significant benefits
Strategic
Objective
Objective 1
Subobjective A
Objective 2
Subobjective B
uncovering
hidden
objectives
Objective 3
evaluating
alternatives
Subobjective C
creating
alternatives
identifying
decision
opportunities
Thinking
About
Values
improving
communication
Measure of Merit A
Measure of Merit B
guiding
strategic
thinking
interconnecting
decisions
Measure of Merit C
facilitating
involvement
guiding
information
collection
Value-Focused Thinking helps us use
our strategic objectives to create value
23