Module 8
CRISIS MANAGEMENT
AND PREVENTION
Giovanni Marizza
gianni.marizza@yahoo.it
13 May 2014, 15.00-19.00
Summary:
-Module Program,
-Basic Definitions,
-Tipology of crises,
-Examples of crises
Summary:
-Module Program,
-Basic Definitions,
-Tipology of crises,
-Examples of crises
Aim: finding
Lessons Learned
Summary:
-Module Program,
-Basic Definitions,
-Tipology of crises,
-Examples of crises
For each crisis:
Historical framework!
Module Program:




No visits
No references
Conceptual context: 13 May
Prevention and management of natural
disasters: 14 May
 Management of human-made crises: 19, 20
21, 26 May
 Assessment in proficiency: 3 June
(individual work)
“Remember, gentlemen,
next week no crises at
all: my agenda is
completely full of
commitments”
(Henry Kissinger)
Basic Definitions:
 Crisis: passage from one situation to a
different one (opposite of “routine”)
Basic Definitions:
 Crisis: passage from one situation to a
different one (opposite of “routine”)
 Human crisis: any crisis affecting
mankind
 “Climate change is a silent human
crisis” (Kofi Annan, President of Global
Humanitarian Forum)
 “This is not only a financial crisis; it's
a human crisis as well” (Bob Zoellik,
President of the World Bank)
Basic Definitions:
 Crisis: passage from one situation to a
different one (opposite of “routine”)
 Human crisis: any crisis affecting
mankind
 Humanitarian crisis: large masses of
poor people in danger
Examples of humanitarian crises:
 Ireland, 1815
 Great Famine, Ireland (1845-1849)
mushroom – potatoes – 1 million victims –emigration – 2 million
people in USA
 Boat people, Vietnam (1975-1979, 19881990)
 Darfur, Sudan (last 10 years)
differences:
Crisis: short/medium/long, wide
Emergency: short, local
Pathology: extremely long / forever
Example of emergency
Rifiuti a Napoli
Example of crisis
USA
1929
1929
Example of pathology (1)
Traffico a roma
Example of pathology (1)
Traffico a roma
Example of pathology (2)
Palestinian Refugee Camps
Basic Definitions:
 Crisis: passage from one situation to a
different one (opposite of “routine”)
 Human crisis: any crisis affecting mankind
 Normally: tension, crisis, stabilisation
 Necessity of preventing, managing
 In a crisis everything becomes great (joy, pain,
efforts, fatigue, creativity,…)
 Presence of opportunities
CRISIS
DANGER
OPPORTUNITY
From Danger to Opportunity
The best historical example: Jewish people
 WW1: “Jewish Brigade”, Balfour Declaration,
creation of a “foyer” in Palestine
 WW2: shoah, creation of the Jewish State
 Arab-Israeli wars:
territorial gains
Basic Definitions:
 Crisis: passage from one situation to a
different one (opposite of “routine”)
 Human crisis: any crisis affecting
mankind
 Humanitarian crisis: large masses of
poor peolpe in danger
 Crisis prevention: doing something in
order to avoid a crisis
Basic Definitions:
 Crisis: passage from one situation to a
different one (opposite of “routine”)
 Human crisis: any crisis affecting mankind
 Humanitarian crisis: large masses of poor
peolpe in danger
 Crisis prevention: doing something in order to
avoid a crisis
 Crisis management: reducing negative
consequences (“consequence management”)
Different kinds of Crises:
 Politico-military: armed conflicts
Particular aspect of Crisis Management:
“Casus Belli” (inventing a reason for a war)
[next 20 May]
Different kinds of Crises:
 Politico-military: armed conflicts
local / world
short / long
occupation / liberation
defensive / aggressive
conventional / nuclear
response / preventive
independence / civil war
…..
Different kinds of Crises:
 Politico-military: armed conflicts
local / world
short / long
occupation / liberation
defensive / aggressive
conventional / nuclear
response / preventive
independence / civil war
…..
Today:
MOOTW, PK, PEnforcing, NBuilding, S&R,…
MILITARY
SUPPORT TO
CIVIL IMPLEMENTATION
MILITARY
OPERATIONS
CIVILIAN
CRISIS
STABILISATION
LIFE
SAVING
LIFE
SUPPORT
UNHCR
ICRC
UNICEF
WHO
FAO
ECONOMIC
& SOCIAL
UNESCO,
WB, IMF
IMF,…
UNESCO WB
CRISIS RESPONSE OPERATIONS
CIVIL
ACTIVITY
LEVEL
MILITARY
TIME
Different kinds of Crises:
 Politico-military: armed conflicts
terrorist attacks
Terrorist attacks (bombing events)




New York, 11 September 2001
Madrid, 11 March 2004
London, 7 July 2005
Israel wall
New York, 11 September 2001
2.974 victims
+ 24 missing + 19
Controversial
Crisis
Management:
-GWOT
-Afghanistan
-Iraq
911 in Europe?
Madrid, 11 March 2004
191 victims
2.057 wounded
WRONG
CRISIS
MANAGEMENT
Atocha: a wrong Crisis
Management
 10 March 2004: electoral campaign, Mr Aznar is sure
to be confirmed
 11 March, 07.39: 4 explosions
 08.43: field hospital established
 09.48: MoI on the spot
 10.43: mobile telephon net collapsed
 14.00: “ETA is guilty”
 17.28: MFA: letter to the Ambassadors: “ETA is
responsible!”
 12 March: ETA? No: AQ!
 13 March: Mr. Zapatero wins, SP troops out of Iraq
Lessons learned:
 Be always ready to help (Field
Hospitals,…)
 Importance of mobile phone net
 Terrorist attacks can influence internal,
external policy, Geopolitics
Another example:
 2008: new electoral campaign. Zapatero:
“I will win if the % will be more than 75%”
 7 March: ETA kills Matias Carrasco,
PSOE
 Carrasco’s daughter on TV: “The best
way to honor my father: please vote!”
 9 March: % over 75%, Zapatero wins
again
 2004, 2008 terrorists have influenced the
results of the elections in SP.
London, 7 July 2005
52 victims
700 wounded
EXCELLENT
CRISIS
MANAGEMENT
Israel wall (apartheid wall,
security wall, the Fence,…)
Terrorist attacks
(hostage kidnapping events)
 Munich, Olympic Games 1972 (Black
September)
 Entebbe airport, 1976 (Baader Meinhoff,
PLO,…Barak*, Netanyahu)
* Begin
http://ukinitaly.fco.gov.uk/it/
“31 October 1946… a terroristic attack…”
Terrorist attacks
(hostage kidnapping events)
 Munich, Olympic Games 1972 (Black
September)
 Entebbe airport, 1976 (Baader Meinhoff,
PLO,…Barak, Netanyahu)
 Tehran US embassy, 1979-80 (disaster)
 Budyonnovsk hospital, 1995 (2.000 hostages,
Chernomyrdin-Basayev)
 Lima, JP embassy, 1997 (tupamaros)
 Moscow, Dubrovka theater, 2002 (700, gas)
 Beslan, school, 2004 (1.200, NL: EU
presidency asking explanations to the victims)
…some lessons/considerations:
 If GE Special Forces fail
(Fuerstenfeldbruck), Mossad don’t
 Worst case: US rescue attempt in Iran
(C130+helo+sandstorm… 444 days)
 “Best” case: Dubrovka (60 Chechens, all
killed, also 119 hostages out of 700)
 Russian raids: always within 48 hrs
Different kinds of Crises:
 Politico-military:
armed conflicts
terrorist attacks
accidents
March-April
1999:
War NATO-Serbia
(Kosovo)
Russia against
“Kursk”
 Aug 2000: Barents
Sea
 12 August: Putin
on the Black Sea
 11.30: 2
explosions, end of
radio contacts
 13 August: Kursk
localized
 14 August: 1st
rescue attempt,
failed
15 August: Russian govt still silent (3 days
after!)
16 August: Kremlin asking help (4 days
after!), Norway ready to help
17 August: Putin (still at BS): “We don’t
need foreign help, Russia has everything!”
18 August: Putin decides to stop his
holidays (6 days after!)
Different kinds of Crises:
 Politico-military:
armed conflicts
terrorist attacks
accidents
 Politics:
Political crisis
Different kinds of Crises:
 Politico-military:
armed conflicts
terrorist attacks
accidents
 Politics:
 Diplomacy:
Political crisis
Diplomatic crisis
2012-14: diplomatic crisis Italy-India
Different kinds of Crises:
 Politico-military:
armed conflicts
terrorist attacks
accidents
 Politics:
Political crisis
 Diplomacy:
Diplomatic crisis
 Economic-financial: economic crisis
(1929, 2008-today, Greece 2010-2012)
Different kinds of Crises:
 Politico-military: armed conflicts
terrorist attacks
accidents
 Politics:
Political crisis
 Diplomacy:
Diplomatic crisis
 Economic-financial: economic crisis (1929, 2008today, Greece 2010-2012)
 Social: humanitarian crisis (famine, diseases,
migrations, …)
Examples of humanitarian crises:
Darfur
Examples of humanitarian crises:
Examples of humanitarian crises:
Example of humanitarian crisis: Syria
Crises are never stand-alone
Crises have deep roots
Crises: never stand-alone
Crises have deep roots
31 May 2010: Freedom Flotilla
Crises have deep roots
31 May 2010: Freedom Flotilla
Crises have deep roots
1948: Israel,
1948-today: Israeli-Arab wars,
2009: Gaza war,
2010: humanitarian situation in Gaza,
31 May 2010: Freedom Flotilla
Crises have deep roots
1914: Sarajevo: G. Princip kills F. Ferdinand,
1914-1918: WW1,
1919: Versailles Treaty,
1939-1945: WW2, Shoah,
1948: Israel,
1948-today: Israeli-Arab wars,
2009: Gaza war,
2010: humanitarian situation in Gaza,
31 May 2010: Freedom Flotilla
Different kinds of Crises:
 Politico-military: armed conflicts
terrorist attacks
accidents
 Politics:
Political crisis
 Diplomacy:
Diplomatic crisis
 Economic-financial: economic crisis (1929, 2008today, Greece 2010-2011)
 Social: humanitarian crisis (famine, diseases,
migrations, …)
public disasters (natural, artificial or human-made)
Suggestions for the final
thesis:
 “Crisis Management:
hostage kidnapping
events. Comparison of
several case studies”
Module 8, assessment in proficiency (3
June): individual work
-subject/format: already submitted by
e.mail (29 April)
.doc format (not .docx, .pdf, …)
-time: at any time before 2 June
-3 June: brief presentation (verbally,
no ppt required)
-mark: max 30/30
individual work:
Valentina
Martin
Andrea
Yuri
Rebecca
Pajwak
Sohiala
Imre Nagy, 1956
Charles De Gaulle, 1958-1962
John Kennedy, 1963
Alexander Dubcek, 1968
Margaret Thatcher, 1982
George W. Bush, 2001
Nicholas Sarkozy, 2011
Module 8
CRISIS MANAGEMENT
AND PREVENTION
Giovanni Marizza
Mail: gianni.marizza@yahoo.it
Cell: 3339483814
Skype: Giaggia2012
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