Friday is the
end of the
Quarter!
Objective:
0 I will be able to predict what Russia will do next in
the Crimean Conflict.
Language Objective:
0 I will use a sentence stem to answer a question.
Vocabulary
0 Trade Pact – agreement between countries on terms of
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trade.
European Union - A group of European countries that
participates in the world economy as one economic unit
Pawn - used by others for their own purposes.
The West – Europe and countries of European colonial
history.
Autonomous region - self-governing region in terms of
local issues.
Prime Minister – similar to a president
Breadbasket – area that is very fertile and produces more
food than it needs for its people.
Soviet Union 1922 - 1991
Ukraine
0 Becomes part of the Soviet Union
by 1921.
0 Breaks away in 1991 when the
Soviet Union dissolves.
0 Known as the breadbasket of
Europe due to its fertile farmland.
Long Term Issues
0 The biggest nation separating the EU and Russia.
0 Often seen as a pawn between Russia and the West.
0 A geostrategic pipeline runs through the Ukraine.
0 Both the US and Russia have sought to influence events to
their benefit.
0 Began in the Bush era.
0 Accelerated with Obama.
0 Black Sea Fleet stationed in
Crimea .
0 2010 agreement permitted the
fleet to stay until 2042.
Ukrainian Crisis
0 Started out as a protest over the handling of a
trade pact with European Union.
0 A contentious election in 2010 saw pro-Russia
candidate and former Prime Minister Yanukovych win
with narrow margins over Prime Minister
Tymoshenko.
0 Yanukovych won with strong support in the Eastern
regions, with most regions in the West favoring
Tymoshenko.
Ukrainian Revolution
0 November 2013 – the President
refuses to sign a trade pact with
the EU.
0 Had been promising for a year to sign
it.
0 Would have created closer ties
with the EU and generated
economic growth.
0 Asks Russia for a $20 Billion loan.
0 Russia threatened to charge higher
prices for gas is the Ukraine signed
the trade deal with the EU.
0 Pro-EU Ukrainians began
protesting, eventually forcing
Yanukovych from office.
Crimea
0 Autonomous region of the
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Ukraine
1954- part of Soviet Union
(Russia + 14 other countries
Russia took over)
1991 - voted to leave Russia
and join with the Ukraine
Russia Black Fleet (Navy)
stationed on Crimea.
2008 – Russia gives out Russian
passports to Crimean citizens
(makes them citizens of Russia).
Russia Invades Crimea?
0 February 27th, 2014, unidentified pro-Russian
troops seize control.
0 Russia’s only year-round link to the Mediterranean Sea.
0 Has controlled a port in Crimea for 230 years.
0 Russia claims ethnic Russians were being mistreated.
0 There is no evidence of this.
0 March 16th, 2014 – Crimea to vote on whether to
join Russia or stay with the Ukraine.
0 Ukrainian Prime Minister declares the invasion an
act of war.
Russia/Soviet Union
0Georgia, 2008.
0Cross-border tensions with
Russia exploded into a five-day
conflict that saw Russian tanks and
troops pour into the breakaway
territories of South Ossetia and
Abkhazia, as well as Georgian cities.
0Russia and Georgia each blamed the
other for starting the conflict
0Russia still has control of South
Ossetia and Abkhazia.
0Afghanistan, 1979
0Soviet Union invades; fails to
conquer.
Legal Issues
0 Russia has clearly recognized Ukraine and its
present borders. This was confirmed in:
0 The Alma Ata Declaration of December 1991, which
consigned the Soviet Union to history,
0 The Budapest memorandum of 1994, offering security
guarantees to Ukraine in exchange for removing nuclear
weapons from its territory
0 The 1997 agreement on the stationing of the Black Sea
fleet in Crimean ports.
0 International Law says you cannot forcibly rescue
foreigners declared nationals.
0 Russia says it was invited in by the former PM; becomes
a non issue once he was forced out.
What Will Russia Do?
0 Use Force
0 Could easily defeat the Ukraine (Black Sea Fleet encircles 60% of the
Ukraine).
0 Would be disruptive to industry, agriculture, oil and gas sales in the
region for years.
0 Retreat
0 60% of Crimea speaks Russian
0 Only year-round warm water access to the Mediterranean
0 Retreat with conditions
0 Crimea becomes semi-independent
0 Gets a permanent agreement to keep the port in Crimea.
0 Advance into Ukraine
0 Shows the world that they are not to be messed with.
TOD
0 I predict that Russia will ________________________________.