Chapter 3 Classic Theories of Economic Growth and Development Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. Chapter 3: Summary Outline: Theories of Economic Growth & Development • • • • • • • Linear Stage of Growth (Harrod-Domar Model Structural change theories (Lewis Model) International –dependence revolution (Marxist/Radical Model) Neoclassical-free market re-surgence Can differences in thinking be re-conciled? Explaining Growth- Application of Production Possibilities Curve (PPC) Illustrating growth using PPC, efficiency, trade offs ,technological change • New Growth Theory-Solow Model ( labor quality or human capital). • What about institutions. They are ignored in these models. • Measuring Development (Perkins chapter 2) Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 3-2 Class Theories of Economic Development – Four Approaches • Linear stages of growth model • Theories and Patterns of structural change • International-dependence revolution • Neoclassical, free market counterrevolution Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 3-3 Development as Growth and Linear-Stages Theories • Rostow’s Stages of Growth: Historical stages • Harrod Domar Growth Model: Emphasis on Physical Capital. Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 3-4 The Harrod-Domar Model S sY (3.1) I K (3.2) K kY (3.3) SI (3.4) Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 3-5 The Harrod-Domar Model S sY kY K I (3.5) sY kY (3.6) Y s Y k Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. (3.7) 3-6 Criticisms of the Stages Model • Necessary versus sufficient conditions Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 3-7 Structural-Change Models • The Lewis two-sector model • Modern and traditional sector Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 3-8 Figure 3.1 The Lewis Model of ModernSector Growth:Two-Sector SurplusLabor Economy Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 3-9 Criticisms- Lewis Model • Rate of labor transfer and employment creation may not be proportional to rate of modern-sector capital accumulation. Growth in modern sector may not draw enough labor. • Surplus labor in rural areas and full employment in urban? • Institutional factors? These assumptions are not correct. • Assumption of diminishing returns in modern sector Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 3-10 Figure 3.2 The Lewis Model Modified by Laborsaving Capital Accumulation: Employment Implications Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 3-11 The International-Dependence Revolution: Radical/Marxist Model • The neoclassical dependence model – Unequal power, core-periphery • The false-paradigm model – Using “expert” advisors • The dualistic-development thesis – Superior and inferior elements can coexist; – center-periphery (sociologist’s view) • Conclusions and implications – No insight on development, empirical evidence Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 3-12 The Neoclassical Counterrevolution: Market Resurgence • Challenging the statist model – Free market approach – Public choice approach – Market-friendly approach • Traditional neoclassical growth theory – Solow model • Conclusions and implications – institutional and political realities in developing world Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 3-13 Theories of Development: Reconciling the Differences • Development economics has no universally accepted paradigm? But everything does not go? • Insights and understandings are continually evolving: Lessons from experience & history • Each theory has some strengths and some weaknesses: • But there are better theories tested with reality of evidence and experience Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 3-14 Case Study: South Korea and Argentina Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 3-15 Concepts for Review • Autarky • Dominance • Average product • Dualism • Capital-labor ratio • Capital-output ratio • Center • False-paradigm model • Free market • Closed economy • Free-market analysis • Comprador groups • Harrod-Domar growth • Dependence model Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 3-16 Concepts for Review (cont’d) • Lewis two-sector model • Neocolonial dependence model • Marginal product • New institutionalism • Market-friendly approach • New political economy approach • Necessary condition • Open economy • Neoclassical counterrevolution • Patterns-of Development analysis Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 3-17 Concepts for Review (cont’d) • Periphery • Production function • Public choice theory • Savings ratio • Self-sustaining growth • Solow neoclassical growth model Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. • Stages-of-growth model of development • Structural-change theory • Structural transformation • Sufficient condition • Surplus labor 3-18 Concepts for Review (cont’d) • Traditional neoclassical growth theory • Underdevelopment Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 3-19 Appendix 3.1: Components of Economic Growth • Capital Accumulation, investments in physical and human capital – Increase capital stock – GNP= Q(L,K)= F(L,K) • Growth in population and labor force • Technological progress – Neutral, labor/capital-saving, labor/capital augmenting – GNP= F(L, K, T) Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 3-20 Figure A3.1.1 Effect of Increases in Physical and Human Resources on the Production Possibility Frontier (PPF)- Model Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 3-21 Figure A3.1.2 Effect of Growth of Capital Stock and Land on the Production Possibility Frontier (PPF): Explaining Economic Growth Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 3-22 Figure A3.1.3 Effect of Technological Change in the Agricultural Sector on the Production Possibility Frontier Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 3-23 Figure A3.1.4 Effect of Technological Change in the Industrial Sector on the Production Possibility Frontier Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 3-24 Appendix 3.2: The Solow Neoclassical Growth Model: Considers human capital or labor quality & productivity 1 Yi AKi Li K Y AK 1 L n g n 1 Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 3-25 Appendix- Solow Growth Model k sf (k ) ( n)k Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. (A3.2.4) 3-26 Appendix- Solow Growth Model sf (k *) ( n)k * Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. (A3.2.5) 3-27 Figure A3.2.1 Equilibrium in the Solow Growth Model Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 3-28 Figure A3.2.2 The Long-Run Effect of Changing the Saving Rate in the Solow Model Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 3-29 Appendix 3.3: Endogenous Growth Theory: Accounts for labor quality, technology, productivity • Motivation for the new growth theory • The Romer model 1 Yi AKi Li K Y AK 1 L n g n 1 Copyright © 2009 Pearson Addison-Wesley. All rights reserved. 3-30