Please state
Index Number:
Student Name:
Jo’rayev Xumoyun
Student Number:
B2404598
Course:
Foundation Year
Module Code and Title:
(MFYC02) English Advanced
Module Leader:
Dr. Margaret Pereira
Module Tutor:
Nargiza Abdurakhmonova
Assessment:
Assignment
Due Date:
10 May 2025
Weighting within Module:
Date Submitted:
5 May 2025
40%
ALL MARKS ARE PROVISIONAL AND ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE UNTIL
CONFIRMED BY THE EXTERNAL EXAM BOARD
Comments from Internal Examiner (Name):
Strengths:
Weaknesses:
Areas of Improvement:
Provisional Mark out of 100:
ALL MARKS ARE PROVISIONAL AND ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE UNTIL
CONFIRMED BY THE EXTERNAL EXAM BOARD
1
Table of Contents
1. Introduction……………………………………………………………………………………………………………..3
2. Literature review………………………………………………………………………………………………………3
2.1 Previous Studies…………………………………………………………………………………………………….4
3. Methodology……………………………………………………………………………………………………………5
3.1 Prospective Participants………………………………………………………………………………………..5
3.2 Research Design…………………………………………………………………………………………………….5
4. Ethical Considerations……………………………………………………………………………………………..6
4.1 Right Withdraw…………………………………………………………………………………………………….6
4.2 Confidentiality and Anonymity……………………………………………………………………………..6
5. Proposed Data Analysis…………………………………………………………………………………………..6
6. Conclusion……………………………………………………………………………………………………………...7
7. References………………………………………………………………………………………………………………7
8. Appendix (A)…………………………………………………………………………………………………………..8
9. Appendix (B)……………………………………………………………………………………………………………9
TITLE: Effects of Water Shortage in Central Asia due to Climate change
Research Aim: This study looks at how water limitations brought on by climate change
affect daily living, food security, and environmental stability in a few places of Kazakhstan,
Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan. It also suggests ways to enhance resource management and
adaptation.
Research Questions:
1. How have patterns of water use and availability in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and
Uzbekistan been impacted by climate change?
2. How do water shortages affect local communities in these nations on a social and
economic level?
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INTRODUCTION
Central Asian countries, especially Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan, are experiencing
severe water shortages as the temperature rises. Drought, desertification, and salinization
frequently pose a threat to these countries' agricultural and subsistence systems. It is stated that
Uzbekistan is "especially susceptible to the consequences of climate change, like water
scarcity. For example, the Aral Sea, which divides Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, was formerly
the fourth-largest inland lake in the world, but drought and intensive irrigation have turned it
into a desert.
Forecasts of the climate indicate deteriorating trends. For example, studies indicate a
significant drop in local river flows: Climate change and increased demand have reduced
Kazakhstan's surface water flows by 27%, according to a World Bank research. Climate
change is also expected to have a negative impact on the supply and quality of water utilities
in the Syr Darya and Amu Darya watersheds. Human health, agriculture, and food security
are all under jeopardy because of this severe water shortage. Our research will examine the
effects of the water scarcity brought on by climate change on the people of Kyrgyzstan,
Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan.
LITERATURE REVIEW
Climate change has greatly worsened the water shortage in Central Asia, particularly in the arid
and semi-arid areas of Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan. These three countries heavily
depend on glacial meltwater and transboundary rivers, the Amu Darya and Syr Darya, for
agricultural, industrial, and residential uses. As glaciers retreat and rainfall patterns grow more
unpredictable, the probability of a prolonged water shortage rises. This has important
implications for migration, agriculture, food security, and regional stability.
Over 90% of Uzbekistan's freshwater withdrawals are used for agriculture, according to the
Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) (FAO, 2023). Due to its great reliance on irrigation,
the country is particularly vulnerable to droughts. Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan have larger
water resources per person, but they also experience more erratic rainfall patterns and water
loss due to inadequate infrastructure. Rivers cross national borders, therefore the region's water
scarcity is not only a physical issue but also a challenge for cooperation and government.
Climate change exacerbates this problem, requiring adaptive strategies that consider
hydrological and political realities (World Bank, 2023).
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According to the Asian Development Bank (2022), the primary climate-related causes of
Central Asia's water issue include rising temperatures, decreasing glacier volume, inefficient
irrigation methods, and high evapotranspiration rates. These problems are made worse by poor
water governance, outdated infrastructure from the Soviet era, and weak institutional
cooperation. The International Water Management Institute, or IWMI, also emphasizes how
the increasing demand for water in cities and agriculture is placing a significant burden on the
three countries' shared river basins.
The World Bank Climate Portal (2023) predicts that by 2050, Uzbekistan's per capita
freshwater supplies will drop below 1000 cubic meters, making it legally "water-scarce" by
UN standards. The glacial water supplies that sustain more than 75% of Central Asia's rivers
are gradually running out, especially during the spring and summer, according to ADB (2022).
As glaciers disappear in the Tien Shan and Pamir mountain ranges, long-term river discharge
is expected to decrease, despite the fact that the risk of short-term floods is increasing.
Growing water stress has been directly linked to food insecurity, migration, rural
unemployment, and land degradation, according to FAO and IWMI. Many farmers in
Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan are already selling their land because of insufficient irrigation. The
IWMI (2024) states that if cross-border water agreements and investments in water-saving
technologies are not achieved, water stress will exacerbate political tensions and reduce
agricultural productivity.
According to a 2024 National Geographic article, the Aral Sea disaster—which was brought
on by river diversion and poor management—is now happening again in the region, albeit on
a smaller scale. The ecology and public health have been impacted by the rise in salt storms
and desertification, especially in western Uzbekistan and southern Kazakhstan.
PREVIOUS STUDIES
Water scarcity in Central Asia has had a major impact on household access to safe water,
agricultural production, and regional collaboration, according to Smith, Brown, and Green
(2020). Their research shows how the Syr Darya and Amu Darya Rivers have become more
competitive for water, especially during dry spells.
Jones (2018) examined how Uzbekistan's agriculture is being affected by climate change,
pointing out that unpredictable precipitation patterns and rising temperatures are decreasing
agricultural yields and increasing reliance on ineffective irrigation systems. She emphasized
that the lack of resources for adaptation makes rural farmers particularly vulnerable.
Large-scale irrigation projects during the Soviet era and unsustainable water management
techniques are to blame for the environmental disaster of the Aral Sea's shrinkage, according
to a 2015 National Geographic Society report.
The long-term impacts on regional microclimates, public health, and economic conditions in
Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are also described in the report.
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Methodology
The mixed-methods research strategy used in this study allows for a thorough understanding
of the experiences, difficulties, and local reactions to water shortages in Central Asia. This
approach examines the effects of water shortage brought on by climate change on daily living,
agriculture, and policy by combining quantitative surveys and qualitative interviews. Because
water scarcity is a complicated subject with both quantifiable effects (such a decreased water
supply) and lived experiences (like coping mechanisms, community concerns), mixed-methods
research is appropriate for this topic.
Prospective Participants
Farmers, students, locals, and government representatives from Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and
Uzbekistan will all take part in this study. The poll will involve 300 participants in total, 100
from each country. Fifteen people will also be chosen for semi-structured interviews, five
from each nation.
Stratified sampling will be used to choose survey respondents, guaranteeing a mix of urban and
rural origins. Purposive sampling will be used to choose interview subjects in order to obtain
community-based and expert perspectives. Identification of participants will be aided by
regional environmental agencies, universities, and local agricultural offices.
Research Design
Using a mixed-methods research approach, this study collects data through both qualitative
and quantitative techniques. To collect quantitative information on water availability, usage
trends, and community sentiments, the quantitative component consists of a structured survey
consisting of 15 closed-ended questions (Appendix A). Ten open-ended questions (Appendix
B) are used in semi-structured interviews as part of the qualitative component to learn more
about participants' viewpoints on coping mechanisms, individual experiences, and how
climate change is affecting water supply. To ensure widespread access, surveys will be made
available both online and in print. Each interview will take 20 to 30 minutes, and it can be
done via video chat, phone, or in person. This combination enables the study to better grasp
regional difficulties and spot larger trends.
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Ethical consideration
The research will be ethically authorized before data collecting begins. All participants—or
their parents/guardians if they are under 18—must sign a consent form before participation.
There will be a thorough explanation of the study's objectives, participant rights, and
interview protocols. To make sure they consent to participate voluntarily, minors will also be
asked for their assent.
Right Withdraw
Participants will be informed that they are free to withdraw from the study at any time and for
any reason. They have the right to request that any data collected about them be removed, even
after their participation in the study is over.
Confidentiality and Anonymity
All data gathered for the study will be treated with the utmost confidentiality. During
transcription, personal identifiers will be eliminated. After being transcribed, the interview
tapes will be safely preserved and removed. To maintain anonymity, participant codes or
pseudonyms will be utilized in all written and published outcomes.
Proposed Data Analysis
SPSS software will be used to analyze the survey data statistically. For yes/no questions and
Likert scales, we will calculate descriptive statistics (means, frequencies). For instance, we
might figure out what proportion of respondents concur that there is a greater scarcity of water.
To compare groups, we can cross-tabulate responses by participant type (farmers vs. nonfarmers) or by nation. The reliability tests in SPSS, such as Cronbach's alpha, will verify that
multi-item scales are consistent.
A qualitative analysis of the interview data will be conducted. Thematic analysis will be used
to code the transcripts. Data will be arranged into themes using NVivo software or by hand
coding. The codes will then be grouped into more general themes, such as "policy awareness,"
"adaptation strategies," and "livelihood impact." Observing similarities and variations between
nations and participant categories, we will search for trends throughout the interviews. We will
triangulate the results by combining the methodologies; for instance, if surveys reveal that
many people are experiencing crop failure, interviews can shed light on farmers' needs and
coping mechanisms.
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Conclusion
Using a mixed-methods approach, this study intends to investigate the effects of water
shortages brought on by climate change in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan. In-depth
interviews and survey data are used in this study to better understand the personal experiences
and broader effects of water scarcity. It is anticipated that the results will add insightful
information to the body of literature already in existence and assist in guiding future Central
Asian water management plans.
References
1) Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) (2023) In the context
of climate change, Central Asia stands ready for more cooperation on food security.
FAO News. Available at: https://www.fao.org/europe/news/detail/in-the-context-ofclimate-change-central-asia-stands-ready-for-more-cooperation-on-food-security/en
(Accessed: 10 April 2025).
2) Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) (2025) Path to
resilience: Uzbekistan’s focus on climate change adaptation reporting. FAO News.
Available at: https://www.fao.org/in-action/climate-change-transparency/news-andevents/news/detail/path-to-resilience--uzbekistan-s-focus-on-climate-changeadaptation-reporting/en (Accessed: 10 April 2025).
3) International Water Management Institute (IWMI) (2024) Future research directions
for understanding the interconnections between climate change, water scarcity, and
mobility in rural Central Asia. Climate and Development. Available at:
https://www.iwmi.org/where-we-work/central-asia/ (Accessed: 10 April 2025).
4) Jones, L. (2018) Climate Change and Agriculture in Uzbekistan: A Growing Challenge.
Environmental Journal, 12(4), pp. 56-67.
5) National Geographic Society (2015) Vanishing Aral Sea. National Geographic
Magazine, June 2015. Available at:
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/magazine/article/vanishing-aral-sea-kazakhstanuzbekistan (Accessed: 10 April 2025).
6) Smith, J., Brown, A. and Green, R. (2020) Impacts of Water Scarcity in Central Asia.
Journal of Environmental Studies, 45(2), pp. 123-145.
7) World Bank (2023a) Kazakhstan: General Country Assessment. Washington, DC:
World Bank. Available at:
https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents-reports/documentdetail/
(Accessed: 10 April 2025).
8) World Bank (2023b) Kyrgyz Republic: General Country Assessment. Washington,
DC: World Bank. Available at:
https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents-reports/documentdetail/
(Accessed: 10 April 2025).
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Appendix A
1. In the last 12 months, have you encountered a scarcity of clean drinking water?
Yes
No
2. Do you think that the lack of water in your area is a major problem?
Yes
No
3. Has the lack of water impacted your day-to-day tasks, such as farming, cooking, or
personal hygiene?
Yes
No
4. Do you recycle or reuse water in your home, such as by conserving wash water?
Yes
No
5. Have you or your family thought about relocating because there isn't enough water?
Yes
No
6. Is your primary water source dependable all year long?
Yes
7.
No
Do you harvest rainwater on your farm or at home?
Yes
No
8. Do you know of any government initiatives to address the scarcity of water?
Yes
No
9. Do you believe that the amount of water used for agriculture in your area is
excessive?
Yes
No
10. Has water scarcity caused you to alter your water-use patterns in the last 12 months?
Yes
No
11. Do local gatherings or the media provide you with information about conserving
water?
Yes
No
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12. Does your town have a mechanism in place for reporting problems with the water
supply?
Yes
No
13. Regarding water problems, do you think your community is taking adequate action?
Yes
No
14. Have you ever had crop failure as a result of water scarcity?
Yes
No
15. Do you consider it your personal duty to practice water conservation?
Yes
No
Appendix B
1. How has the availability of water changed in the last few years, in your opinion?
2. How has your community's food production and agriculture been impacted by the scarcity
of water?
3. How do locals cope with water scarcity? What coping mechanisms do they employ?
4. What do you think are the primary reasons for the scarcity of water in your area? (Check
for problems with infrastructure, overuse, and climate.)
5. Have you noticed any national or local initiatives to solve water issues? How successful
have they been, if so?
6. What other facets of life, such migration, education, or health, are impacted by water
shortages in your community?
7. How do local communities and the government work together to solve the water shortage
problem?
8. Could you describe a time when a water shortage affected your work or daily schedule?
9. What kind of knowledge or assistance would improve your community's ability to cope
with water scarcity?
10. In your opinion, what will be the most significant water-related issue facing your
community in the upcoming years?
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